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The 15-Minute Win-Lose Game: A Million Transaction Records Unveil the 'Folded World' of Bitcoin Prediction Markets

A data analysis of Bitcoin's 15-minute price prediction markets reveals a stark reality dominated by algorithmic trading bots. Over a three-day period encompassing 291 markets, 1.05 million transactions totaling $17 million were recorded. While 17,254 unique addresses participated, the vast majority were retail users treating it like a "lottery," with an almost even split between winners and losers. The key finding is the market's domination by a tiny minority: just 247 algorithm-driven addresses (3.6% of users) executed over 60% of all trades. These bots generated a collective profit of approximately $284,000, while human traders, overall, lost $154,000. Bots also boasted a significantly higher win rate of 65.5% compared to 51.5% for humans. The analysis further debunked the assumption that pure speed guarantees success. The most profitable bot, which earned $54,531, had a high win rate of 72% but was selective, participating in 61% of markets. In contrast, hyper-frequency bots trading over 50 times per hour often had negative returns due to gas fees and intense competition. For human traders, the data suggests a path to success lies in low-frequency, high-conviction trading, where the win rate can reach 55%. However, humans consistently fail at risk management, often holding onto losing positions too long and exiting winners too early, leading to a poor risk-reward ratio. The market is ultimately a hierarchy: top algorithms harvest inferior bots, which in turn harvest undisciplined human traders.

marsbitAyer 06:38

The 15-Minute Win-Lose Game: A Million Transaction Records Unveil the 'Folded World' of Bitcoin Prediction Markets

marsbitAyer 06:38

OpenAI May Integrate Iris Verification: WLD Surges 20% in a Single Day, Receiving the Strongest Endorsement?

WLD, the token of Worldcoin, surged over 18% in 24 hours, reaching around $0.65, following a Forbes report that OpenAI is developing a new social networking application that may integrate iris-scanning technology similar to Worldcoin’s Orb for user verification. The move aims to combat bot proliferation and ensure "proof of personhood" in online spaces. OpenAI, which is reportedly in talks to raise up to $60 billion from investors including NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft, seeks reliable identity authentication to maintain platform integrity amid rising AI-generated fake accounts. Worldcoin’s zero-knowledge proof technology allows verification without exposing personal data, already serving 15 million users. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI and co-founder of Worldcoin, has long emphasized equitable distribution of benefits from AI growth. A partnership could embed WLD tokens into OpenAI’s ecosystem, enabling rewards for verified users and creating new revenue streams. Despite privacy concerns and regulatory scrutiny in regions like Europe, collaboration with OpenAI accelerate Worldcoin’s transition from speculation to real-world utility. Recent upgrades to World ID 4.0 enhance privacy and recoverability, strengthening its case as a foundational digital identity layer. However, WLD remains significantly below its all-time high, with investors advised to consider market risks.

marsbit01/29 04:37

OpenAI May Integrate Iris Verification: WLD Surges 20% in a Single Day, Receiving the Strongest Endorsement?

marsbit01/29 04:37

Prediction Markets Are Not 'Truth Machines': A Detailed Analysis of Seven Structural Inefficiencies

Prediction markets are increasingly used to forecast events like elections and economic indicators by aggregating dispersed information into probabilistic prices through a trading mechanism. While often effective and sometimes outperforming polls or experts, these markets face structural inefficiencies beyond surface-level issues like regulation or liquidity. Key hidden limitations include: 1) Lack of "dumb money" from retail participants, reducing liquidity and efficiency; 2) Persistent mispricing and arbitrage opportunities, with over $39.5M in profits on platforms like Polymarket since 2024; 3) Dominance of algorithmic traders creating unfair advantages; 4) Self-reinforcing feedback loops where prices detach from reality; 5) Vulnerability to misinformation, as seen in the 2020 U.S. election; 6) Allowed insider trading under certain regulatory frameworks; and 7) Low liquidity in niche markets, enabling manipulation. These inefficiencies undermine accuracy and fairness, necessitating architectural improvements, such as parallel settlement systems like FastSet, to enable faster, more reliable predictions.

marsbit01/27 07:14

Prediction Markets Are Not 'Truth Machines': A Detailed Analysis of Seven Structural Inefficiencies

marsbit01/27 07:14

From 100% Rebate to 20%: The Game Theory Behind Polymarket's Fee Adjustment

Polymarket recently adjusted its fee structure for 15-minute cryptocurrency prediction markets, moving from a 100% fee rebate to a 20% rebate for market makers. This change aims to combat "latency arbitrage" bots that exploited tiny time delays between exchange price updates and Polymarket’s price adjustments, harming market makers and reducing liquidity. Initially, full rebates were introduced to incentivize market makers to stay despite bot activity. After data showed a significant drop in fee volume—indicating reduced bot activity—the platform reduced rebates to 20% for a trial period. This reflects an ongoing effort to balance fairness among market makers, automated traders, and regular users. The article also references ongoing "money printer" strategies used by some successful traders and emphasizes Polymarket’s role in providing a competitive, strategy-driven environment.

marsbit01/14 13:33

From 100% Rebate to 20%: The Game Theory Behind Polymarket's Fee Adjustment

marsbit01/14 13:33

X Rolls Out Smart Cashtags to Cut Crypto Spam and Ticker Confusion

X is introducing a new feature called Smart Cashtags to reduce cryptocurrency ticker confusion and spam on its platform. The tool will allow users to link cashtags like $BTC to verified token identities or contract addresses, providing access to charts and information directly from posts. This aims to address issues where scam coins mimic legitimate cryptocurrencies and improve clarity in crypto discussions. The rollout, planned as early as next month, comes amid regulatory pressure in Europe, including a recent €120 million fine for Digital Services Act violations. Additionally, Elon Musk has promised to open-source X’s ranking algorithms to increase transparency. Crypto users have criticized the platform for bot dominance and engagement farming, which Smart Cashtags may partially mitigate by reducing ticker exploitation.

TheNewsCrypto01/12 13:46

X Rolls Out Smart Cashtags to Cut Crypto Spam and Ticker Confusion

TheNewsCrypto01/12 13:46

Who is Placing Counterintuitive Bets in Prediction Markets?

Who Bets Against Common Sense in Prediction Markets? This article explores the counterintuitive players who provide liquidity by betting "Yes" on seemingly improbable events on prediction markets like Polymarket. Contrary to appearing irrational, these participants are often driven by calculated strategies. Three key groups are identified: 1. **The Lottery Players:** These individuals focus on high odds, betting small amounts for a potentially large payoff. They capitalize on the small but non-zero chance of a black swan event or a market settlement error, making such high-risk, high-reward bets a rational part of a diversified strategy. 2. **Bots:** Automated trading algorithms are significant liquidity providers. They quickly engage in new markets, scooping up ultra-cheap "Yes" shares and then placing slightly higher sell orders to profit from subsequent buyers (like lottery players or other bots). Some bots also trade to generate volume, potentially aiming to qualify for future airdrops. 3. **The Prediction Platforms:** Polymarket itself incentivizes liquidity through programs like maker incentives and holding rewards (e.g., a 4% APY for holding shares in specific markets). These financial incentives make providing liquidity on unlikely outcomes attractive, as rewards can offset potential losses or enhance gains, contributing significantly to market depth and volume. The analysis concludes that those betting against the consensus are not merely "stupid" but are often rational actors employing specific strategies to profit, with the platform's own incentive structures playing a major role in fueling this activity.

Odaily星球日报01/08 02:57

Who is Placing Counterintuitive Bets in Prediction Markets?

Odaily星球日报01/08 02:57

Tom Lee Claims ‘Bots’ To Blame For Ethereum Price Fall as BitMine Buys More ETH Under $3,000

BitMine's Tom Lee attributes Ethereum's recent price decline to automated trading bots and year-end tax-loss selling, despite the firm purchasing an additional 44,463 ETH tokens. Lee noted that institutional investors typically withdraw during the final holiday weeks of December, leaving markets more susceptible to algorithmic strategies and tax-related selling pressure. BitMine continues to accumulate Ethereum, now holding approximately 4.11 million ETH valued at $2,948 per token, representing about 3.4% of the circulating supply. The company's total crypto holdings, cash, and strategic investments amount to $13.2 billion, making it the largest Ethereum treasury globally. However, analysts warn of near-term downside risks, citing rising exchange reserves as a bearish indicator that could push ETH toward $2,500 if the trend persists. Ethereum was trading below $2,971, up nearly 5% over the past month.

ccn.com12/31 11:37

Tom Lee Claims ‘Bots’ To Blame For Ethereum Price Fall as BitMine Buys More ETH Under $3,000

ccn.com12/31 11:37

2026 Crypto Narratives to Watch: Who Will Be the Next Star?

Crypto Narratives to Watch in 2026: Key Trends and Opportunities The crypto industry continues to evolve through narratives and trends. Identifying these early is crucial for success. Key narratives expected to shape 2026 include: - **GambleFi**: Prediction and information markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are becoming essential tools for real-world decision-making, offering economically-backed insights. - **Launchpads**: Community-led fundraising and ICOs are making a strong comeback, with over $341M raised recently. Platforms like Legion, MetaDao, and Coinlist are leading this shift toward investor-friendly and protocol-economy focused sales. - **Privacy**: With institutional capital demanding confidentiality, privacy is no longer optional. Over $500M has been invested in privacy-focused dApps and chains in 2025. Selective disclosure—proving legitimacy without exposing data—will be critical. - **Crypto Neo-Banks**: Wallets are evolving into full financial interfaces integrating custody, payments, yield, reporting, and compliance. Projects like Revolut and Avici are pioneering this shift. - **DePIN**: After a 2025 slump, decentralized physical infrastructure networks like Helium, Hivemapper, and Render are gaining real traction with measurable usage and revenue, attracting continued VC interest. - **Perp DEXs**: Platforms like Hyperliquid and dYdX are proving that decentralized perpetual exchanges can compete with CEXs in volume and fees. The winners will offer capital efficiency, low slippage, and innovative risk management. - **AI**: AI is moving beyond trading bots to become core infrastructure—writing smart contracts, managing risk, and optimizing liquidity. Key skills include vibecoding, prompt engineering, and AI-augmented research. Additional narratives to monitor include x402 (onchain simplification), bot tokenization, stablecoins, and real-world assets (RWA). 2026 promises to be a dynamic year for crypto innovation and value creation.

marsbit12/30 04:56

2026 Crypto Narratives to Watch: Who Will Be the Next Star?

marsbit12/30 04:56

X Platform's New Monetization Rules: Farewell to Invalid Exposure, Focus on High-Quality Engagement

"X Platform's Monetization Shift: Prioritizing Quality Engagement Over Vanity Metrics" An author details a personal experiment revealing the inefficacy of chasing high exposure for monetization on X (formerly Twitter). Despite generating 29 million impressions and significant engagement (267.7k interactions, 119.5k likes) through an aggressive strategy of posting 200+ daily comments on popular accounts, the revenue earned was only $71.49. The article argues that in 2025, exposure is a "vanity metric" and a misleading indicator of earnings. The platform's monetization rules now primarily reward genuine interactions from paid, verified users (comments, reposts, likes, bookmarks), while filtering out interactions from free users and bots. The author explains that their strategy, while boosting raw numbers, primarily attracted bot traffic, which diluted their follower base, lowered their verified user ratio (~41%), and potentially triggered algorithm penalties for spam-like behavior. The key takeaway is a fundamental shift in strategy: focus on building a quality community rather than chasing empty exposure. The new recommended approach involves aiming for a 3-5% engagement rate, fostering high-quality comments, maintaining a 45-50% verified user ratio, and creating original content. The conclusion is that X now rewards "content builders" with a dedicated, paying audience, not "traffic speculators" chasing meaningless impressions.

比推12/26 14:18

X Platform's New Monetization Rules: Farewell to Invalid Exposure, Focus on High-Quality Engagement

比推12/26 14:18

29 Million Impressions, Only $71 Earned: How to Make Money from Traffic on X Platform?

An experiment on X platform revealed that chasing high exposure metrics does not translate to meaningful revenue. After generating 28.9 million impressions and gaining 37.5k followers through aggressive tactics like spamming comments and piggybacking on popular accounts, the author earned only $71.49. The key insight is that exposure is a vanity metric—it doesn’t drive earnings. What matters is engagement from paid verified users. Comments and reposts from premium users carry the most weight, while likes and free user interactions contribute little. The platform’s algorithm filters out bot-driven activity, making inflated exposure worthless. The author also experienced negative side effects: bot followers diluted audience quality, reduced trust with the algorithm, and increased the risk of being flagged as spam. The recommended strategy shifts focus to quality over quantity: aim for 3-5% engagement rates, prioritize comments from verified users (45-50% of total followers), and create original content. Sustainable monetization comes from building a genuine community, not chasing empty metrics.

marsbit12/26 06:36

29 Million Impressions, Only $71 Earned: How to Make Money from Traffic on X Platform?

marsbit12/26 06:36

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