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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is Bitcoin's Resistance Band About to Break Through or Be Rejected for the Sixth Time?

Bitcoin is trading around $65,457, consolidating between a key bear market resistance line (rejecting price since February) and its cluster of EMAs around $64,475-$65,045. Key resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $66,578, with further resistance at the 100-day EMA ($67,717). Support lies at the EMAs and the lower Bollinger Band at $62,243. A potential bullish catalyst is Iran's signal for a ceasefire, which could reduce geopolitical risk. Analyst Benjamin Cowen draws parallels to 2018, warning of a potential rejection and August-September decline if the resistance isn't broken. Anthony Scaramucci remains long-term bullish, citing Bitcoin's advantages over gold. The outlook hinges on whether BTC can close above the $66,578 resistance or faces another rejection.

cryptonews.ruHace 4 hora(s)

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is Bitcoin's Resistance Band About to Break Through or Be Rejected for the Sixth Time?

cryptonews.ruHace 4 hora(s)

Five Historical Indicators Light Up Simultaneously, Bitcoin Bear Market Hits Bottom

Multiple historical indicators are converging to suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching or has reached a long-term cycle bottom. Currently trading approximately 50% below its all-time high, Bitcoin's bear market has persisted for over 40 weeks. Several key metrics point towards a potential low: the Nasdaq/Bitcoin and Gold/Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are at historically extreme oversold (for Bitcoin) levels, which have previously signaled significant long-term outperformance in subsequent 1-3 year periods. Furthermore, Bitcoin's spot price is currently around 18% below its Realized Price (on-chain cost basis of $53k), a condition that has historically marked the final stages of bear markets and preceded substantial future returns. Analysis of past cycles indicates that price lows typically occur around 60 weeks after the previous peak, suggesting a potential low could form by late November 2026. Combined, these signals—though based on a limited historical sample and subject to structural market changes—indicate the period from now through late 2026 could present an attractive long-term accumulation opportunity for Bitcoin, with an asymmetrically positive return profile projected for the 2027-2028 timeframe.

Odaily星球日报Hace 5 hora(s)

Five Historical Indicators Light Up Simultaneously, Bitcoin Bear Market Hits Bottom

Odaily星球日报Hace 5 hora(s)

I Built a Bitcoin Buying System: $64,000, The Lower the Score, The More I Buy

Australian trader Jake Pahor shares his personal Bitcoin investment system. After losing money on altcoins in the last cycle, he now holds 100% Bitcoin, viewing it as the benchmark for the crypto asset class. His strategy centers on a dynamic dollar-cost averaging plan driven by the CSH Risk Score (a proprietary metric). He buys only when the score is between 10 and 30, purchasing more when the score is lower. Exit rules are also predefined. Currently, the CSH score is 25.6, indicating an "early cycle" phase, so his regular buying continues while larger purchases await a drop below 20. He emphasizes that a robust system, written calmly in advance, is crucial for withstanding market emotions. He also monitors key metrics like Bitcoin dominance and the TOTAL3/BTC ratio, noting that altcoin season hasn't begun yet based on historical patterns. The article's core message is that the right answer to "Should I buy now?" is not a specific recommendation but a personalized system that fits one's life and risk tolerance.

marsbitHace 5 hora(s)

I Built a Bitcoin Buying System: $64,000, The Lower the Score, The More I Buy

marsbitHace 5 hora(s)

Expert Outlines Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin Movement by End of Month

Bitcoin has been trading in the range of $61,220–$66,978 since July 6, indicating a consolidation phase following the high volatility of early summer. Financial analyst Andrey Poroshin from Bitbanker notes this sideways movement is influenced by seasonal market inactivity and geopolitical uncertainty, to which the crypto market is now less reactive. He points to two key fundamental factors shaping the long-term trend. First, Bitcoin's price remains below the estimated $73k–$75k production cost for major US mining companies, a condition historically associated with the late stages of a prolonged downturn. Second, the bankruptcy of the major retail exchange BitMEX mirrors past cycles where such events, combined with prices below US production costs, often preceded market recovery. Technically, a close above $66,200 could target $67.5k–$68k, with a firm break above $68k increasing the likelihood of a move toward $72k. Conversely, a loss of $64,500 could trigger a retest of the $61k–$62.5k range. The most likely scenario while Bitcoin stays within its current range is accumulation before the next medium-term impulse. Separately, a Russian deputy finance minister announced that unqualified investors in Russia will soon be allowed to legally purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and popular stablecoins, with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary.

cryptonews.ruHace 6 hora(s)

Expert Outlines Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin Movement by End of Month

cryptonews.ruHace 6 hora(s)

BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

Bitcoin's overall supply in profit has rebounded sharply, approaching 60% in late July from a 2026 low near 46% in June. However, analysis from CryptoQuant cautions that this recovery remains fragile and not yet a confirmed bull market signal. For a sustained market bottom, key metrics require stronger confirmation: the 30-day average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must stay above 1, and the supply in profit should exceed 64%. The market has already seen one false breakout in April-June where these conditions briefly met before rolling back over. Currently, the LTH-SOPR average has been below 1 for over 50 days, indicating long-term holders are still moving coins at an aggregate loss—a potential sign of lingering capitulation. While hitting the 50% supply-in-loss mark in June aligned with historical bear market bottoms, the current recovery in profitability lacks the durable onchain support from long-term holders needed to confirm a full trend reversal.

cointelegraphHace 8 hora(s)

BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

cointelegraphHace 8 hora(s)

Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Flash, Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoming

Summary: Bitcoin is exhibiting a confluence of five historical indicators suggesting it may be at or near a long-term cycle bottom. The analysis notes diminishing marginal returns for a passive "always long" strategy, increasing the need for conditional investment approaches. Key indicators: 1. **Nasdaq/BTC RSI:** The 14-week RSI moving average of the Nasdaq 100/BTC ratio has reached a record high of 72.6, indicating Bitcoin is at its most oversold level relative to the Nasdaq in history. Historically, similar extremes have preceded strong 1-3 year outperformance for Bitcoin. 2. **Gold/BTC RSI:** Similarly, the Gold/BTC RSI reached a record high in February 2026, signaling extreme oversold conditions. Past instances led to Bitcoin outperforming gold and USD over multi-year horizons. 3. **Realized Price (On-Chain Cost Basis):** Bitcoin's current price (~$43,400) is 18% below its realized price ($53,000). Historically, price trading below this level has occurred only 12% of the time and has marked the final stages of bear markets, followed by significant positive long-term returns. 4. **Long-Term Forward Returns:** Analysis of periods when the Nasdaq/BTC RSI was above 66 shows asymmetric upside for Bitcoin/USD and BTC/Nasdaq returns over 1-3 years, though the magnitude of returns has diminished each cycle. 5. **Cycle Clock:** Historically, Bitcoin bear market lows have occurred approximately 60 weeks after the prior all-time high. The current cycle is ~40 weeks in, suggesting a potential low around late November 2026 if the pattern holds. New highs have historically occurred within ~120 weeks of the prior peak. Risks include the small historical sample size, the interconnected nature of the indicators, and potential structural changes in the current cycle (e.g., ETFs, corporate holdings, complex derivatives). Conclusion: The simultaneous alignment of these rare, extreme signals suggests Bitcoin may be forming a cycle low, potentially by late 2026. This period is presented as a potentially attractive long-term accumulation window, with historical precedent pointing to asymmetric positive returns over a multi-year timeframe beginning from such signal convergences.

链捕手Hace 8 hora(s)

Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Flash, Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoming

链捕手Hace 8 hora(s)

The Perfect Founder-Market Fit: Bear Markets Are the Ultimate Test

"Founder-Market Fit in a Bear Market: The Ultimate Test" While AI captures the vast majority of venture capital and attention, the current crypto bear market is revealing the strongest cohort of founders in four cycles. These operators, hailing from institutions like Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and Stripe, are not chasing narratives. They are converging on the now-compelling "hard problem" of institutional-grade financial infrastructure. Founder-market fit—the alignment between a specific founder's unique capabilities and a specific market's needs—is the most durable signal in venture. Products, markets, and regulations change, but this fit compounds even when prices don't. The bear market is the best environment to identify it. Talent is now concentrated on two serious verticals: AI and fintech. The quality of founders choosing blockchain for finance is unprecedented. Evidence is in who's building: founders from elite traditional finance backgrounds are tackling on-chain institutional infrastructure (e.g., Ondo's Nathan Allman, Offchain Labs' Ed Felten). Market data supports this shift, with tokenized real-world assets and stablecoins growing significantly and major banks launching products. The author evaluates founders on four traits: 1) Deep domain expertise (lived experience, not just theory), 2) High agency (ability to sell a vision based on deep market understanding), 3) Unfair network advantage (relationships that accelerate execution), and 4) Obsession (long-term commitment rooted in belief, not hype). In a bull market, momentum does the work. A bear market strips that away, leaving only belief—the observable output of true founder-market fit—as fuel. This period filters out tourists, leaving builders who see the long-term opportunity. For serious operators considering the space, the bear market is not a risk but a proving ground and the cleanest environment to build compounding advantage. The commitment is to back such founders at the intersection of market and conviction, as in every prior cycle.

marsbit07/24 07:35

The Perfect Founder-Market Fit: Bear Markets Are the Ultimate Test

marsbit07/24 07:35

Bears tighten grip on AVAX as open interest rises alongside falling prices

Avalanche's AVAX token price dropped 4.91% in 24 hours, marking one of the largest declines among top cryptocurrencies. This decline occurred alongside a rise in Open Interest, a noticeable drop in spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), and funding rates turning negative, indicating strong bearish sentiment and heightened short-selling activity. The price fell below the crucial $6.50 local support zone, threatening to accelerate the downtrend toward $6.00 or lower. Despite a recent surge in on-chain transactions, AVAX has struggled to break the $7.08 resistance, solidifying a bearish market structure. With Bitcoin also trading below key support levels, overall market pressure is contributing to AVAX's weakness. A cluster of potential short liquidations in the $6.70-$6.85 zone presents a risk for a brief price rebound or short squeeze. Traders are advised to maintain a bearish outlook while remaining cautious of this potential volatility.

ambcrypto07/24 07:24

Bears tighten grip on AVAX as open interest rises alongside falling prices

ambcrypto07/24 07:24

Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Flash Signals: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoms Out

Title: "Five Major Historical Indicators Simultaneously Flash, Bitcoin Bear Market Hits Bottom" Bitcoin is currently down 50% from its all-time high, with the bear market persisting over 40 weeks. A set of long-term cyclical indicators suggests the market may be at or nearing a price and time-cycle low point. Key Indicators: 1. Nasdaq/BTC Relative Strength: The 14-week moving average of the Nasdaq 100/BTC ratio's RSI has reached a historically unprecedented overbought level of 72.6, indicating Bitcoin is extremely oversold relative to equities. Historically, such extremes have preceded major cycle lows and strong outperformance by Bitcoin over the next 1-3 years. 2. Long-Term Expected Returns: Past instances of extreme Nasdaq/BTC RSI readings have been followed by asymmetric positive returns for Bitcoin over a 1-3 year horizon, though the magnitude of gains has diminished each cycle. 3. Gold/BTC Relative Strength: A similar RSI indicator for the Gold/BTC ratio also hit a record high in February 2026, another signal aligning with historical cycle lows for Bitcoin. 4. Bitcoin Realized Price: The on-chain realized price (average cost basis) is currently $53,000, 18% above the spot price. Historically, Bitcoin's spot price has spent only 12% of its time below this level, and every past bear market bottom has occurred below the realized price. 5. Cycle Clock: Previous cycles saw price lows form around 60 weeks after the all-time high. The current cycle is at week 40. If this pattern holds, a low point could form around late November 2026. Conclusion: The convergence of these rare, extreme signals points to Bitcoin being at or very near a long-term cyclical bottom, likely forming before the end of 2026. This period may present a highly attractive opportunity for long-term accumulation, with an asymmetric return profile favoring significant upside over the next 1-3 years, despite noted risks like diminishing marginal returns, small sample size, and potential structural market changes.

marsbit07/24 07:13

Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Flash Signals: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoms Out

marsbit07/24 07:13

Bitcoin price prediction 2030: Here’s what you should know about next bull run

The article discusses Bitcoin's bearish trend since October 2025 and analyzes potential future price movements for 2030. It highlights that a market bottom, potentially between $41.5k-$45k, could occur around October 2026 based on historical fractal analysis. For a new bull run to materialize, a shift to positive stablecoin inflows to exchanges is considered a key indicator. Looking ahead to 2030, technical analysis using Fibonacci extension levels suggests a possible peak in the range of $200k-$220k, following a potential pullback to around $39.1k. However, the article cautions that the next cycle may be less explosive and take longer to complete than previous ones.

ambcrypto07/20 22:02