Strategy Watch: February

insights.glassnodePublicado a 2026-03-03Actualizado a 2026-03-03

Resumen

Glassnode launches Strategy Watch, a monthly newsletter analyzing fund performance and allocation trends in digital assets. The February 2026 edition reports a sharp negative shift in capital flows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins since late October 2025, signaling weakening institutional demand and a defensive market regime. ETF and Digital Asset Trust (DAT) net flows have also softened, indicating slowing institutional interest. Additionally, Ethereum's DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) has been declining since August 2025, reflecting reduced conviction in DeFi yields. The CME basis yield for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has compressed significantly, suggesting a pullback in institutional leverage and market-neutral strategies.

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Welcome to Strategy Watch

In a rapidly evolving market, where traders and funds chase returns amid volatility, while asset allocators seek data-driven conviction for long-term positioning, Glassnode occupies a unique vantage point. Our on-chain and wider market intelligence has served as a cornerstone for both groups since 2018, earning their trust through consistent, impartial data, analytics and research.

A core Glassnode belief is that genuine insight in digital assets comes from neutrality and depth, unbiased data that empowers decisions across the ecosystem. That is why we are thrilled to launch Strategy Watch, a new monthly newsletter dedicated to the analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

We hope to bring value by regularly delivering clear, high-signal analysis of capital flows, head-to-head strategy performance benchmarks, and the most important allocation moves actually being made by institutions and funds. But this is just the beginning. We are actively exploring ways to bridge these worlds further, and would love your feedback as Strategy Watch evolves.

Inside the Latest Strategy Watch

You'll find a wealth of insides spread across 6 sections:

Institutional Flow Monitor
Fund and SMA Performance
On-chain Vault Performance
Manager Monitor
Allocation Updates

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Institutional Flow Monitor

Since late October 2025, capital flows to BTC, ETH and Stablecoins have turned negative sharply.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins have seen a clear slowdown in capital inflows, signalling weakening demand and a structural contraction in liquidity. All three assets have now shifted into net outflow, with Bitcoin at –$8.4B per month, Ethereum at –$3.8B, and stablecoins at –$6.4B. This broad-based drawdown across core crypto assets reflects a defensive regime, where institutional capital is de-risking rather than re-entering risk positions. This negative trend has further accelerated as of January 2026.

ETF & DAT Net Flows

ETF & DAT net flows remain positive, but weakened, signalling slowing institutional demand.

Net flows into these vehicles act as a proxy for institutional demand. In Q4 2025 and early January, institutions were net sellers through the ETF channel, with Bitcoin ETF outflows approximating –35.8k BTC per month and Ethereum ETF flows around –257.6k ETH per month. Over the same period, DATs saw strong inflows in August 2025 driven by new product launches, but buy pressure has since softened; nonetheless, flows into DATs remain positive, indicating ongoing, albeit weaker, institutional interest via balance-sheet exposure.

DeFi TVL & Stablecoin Cap

TVL on Ethereum has been declining since August 2025, signalling softer conviction in DeFi yield curves.

DeFi has served as another active playground for institutional capital through strategies such as liquidity provisioning, collateralized lending, and structured yield harvesting. Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum, began to shrink from August 2025 onward, and is now declining at approximately –$15.3M per month. A contraction in TVL implies that larger allocators are withdrawing from on-chain financial services, reducing liquidity depth and signalling softer conviction in DeFi yield and risk-adjusted returns relative to alternative venues.

CME Basis Yield

Contraction signals are waning incentive for market-neutral strategies.

Another key dimension of institutional engagement is the CME Basis Yield, which estimates the monthly dollar value earned by institutions from cash-and-carry strategies, capturing the premium between spot prices and CME calendar futures. Since August 2025, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen a sharp compression in this yield, with Bitcoin declining from approximately $136.6M to $38.6M per month, and Ethereum from $47.5M to $14.8M per month. This contraction rreflects reduced leverage deployment, softer futures demand, and a broader pullback in balance-sheet commitment amid tightening liquidity conditions.

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main purpose of Glassnode's new Strategy Watch newsletter?

AStrategy Watch is a monthly newsletter dedicated to the analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, providing clear analysis of capital flows, strategy performance benchmarks, and institutional allocation moves.

QWhich three core crypto assets have experienced a shift into net capital outflows according to the report?

ABitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins have all shifted into net outflow, with Bitcoin at -$8.4B per month, Ethereum at -$3.8B, and stablecoins at -$6.4B.

QWhat does the contraction in CME Basis Yield for Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate about institutional activity?

AThe contraction in CME Basis Yield indicates reduced leverage deployment, softer futures demand, and a broader pullback in balance-sheet commitment amid tightening liquidity conditions, showing waning incentive for market-neutral strategies.

QHow many sections is the Strategy Watch report organized into, and what are two of them?

AThe report is organized into 6 sections, including Institutional Flow Monitor, Fund and SMA Performance, On-chain Vault Performance, Manager Monitor, and Allocation Updates.

QWhat trend does the declining Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum signal about institutional behavior in DeFi?

AThe declining TVL on Ethereum signals that larger allocators are withdrawing from on-chain financial services, reducing liquidity depth and showing softer conviction in DeFi yield and risk-adjusted returns relative to alternative venues.

Lecturas Relacionadas

Is the Sharp Decline Over? Let the Data Speak

**Has the Sharp Decline Ended? Let Data Speak** Bitcoin's recent significant drop has placed short sellers in a precarious position. Three concurrent pressures—sustained outflows from ETFs, miners offloading coins to exchanges, and short-term holders capitulating—pushed the price near $63k. The asset fell 13% this week and 21% this month, roughly halving from its all-time high. A critical data point is the extremely crowded short positioning, with a short-to-long ratio reaching 8:1, representing nearly $100 billion in short interest overhead. This creates conditions for a potential short squeeze if selling pressure merely pauses, similar to the event in November 2022 which triggered a 24% rally. The selling pressures are real: spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a record $5.4 billion outflow over 20 days. Short-term holders moved 53k loss-held BTC to exchanges in a day, and miners sent 24k BTC to Binance, a six-month high. Capital is also rotating towards AI and tech stocks like SpaceX, with $400 billion invested in AI infrastructure recently. However, on-chain data shows accumulation by long-term holders, who added 200k BTC in a month, and institutions/miners have absorbed 1.24 million BTC since 2023. This indicates strong buying beneath the surface. Key levels to watch are the $67k-$70k zone (2021 high & 2024 breakout point). A swift recovery above it suggests a leverage washout; failure could test $60k-$55k. The direction also hinges on ETF flow reversal. Currently, the S&P 500 hits new highs driven by AI, while Bitcoin and DeFi (TVL down from $173b to $73.9b) lag. The most probable path is a grinding basing process between $60k-$58k with continued ETF outflows. A less likely but explosive scenario involves a sudden flow reversal, a surge above $70k triggering a short squeeze, and a rally back above $76k. The immediate trigger depends on when the relentless selling pauses. A final cautionary note questions Bitcoin's correlation: if the high-flying U.S. stock market corrects, will Bitcoin once again miss the rally but not the decline?

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Is the Sharp Decline Over? Let the Data Speak

foresightnews_apiHace 5 min(s)

Single-Day Plunge of 30%, Arthur Hayes Suddenly Liquidates: Why Did ZEC Get Exploded by Security Issues?

On June 5th, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox disclosed a critical soundness vulnerability in the project's latest Orchard privacy pool. This flaw, found in the elliptic curve multiplication constraints, could allow an attacker to create unlimited counterfeit ZEC within the shielded pool, with transactions appearing valid. The vulnerability was discovered in late May by security researcher Taylor Hornby, who utilized Anthropic's new Opus 4.8 AI model for a targeted audit. The Zcash ecosystem had already performed an emergency network upgrade to patch the issue. However, the detailed disclosure triggered severe market panic, causing ZEC's price to plummet over 30% in a single day. Notably, prominent investor Arthur Hayes announced he had sold his entire ZEC position following the news. The incident starkly challenges the "technological trust" narrative central to privacy coins. Despite years of top-tier cryptographic audits, the bug persisted until uncovered with advanced AI-assisted research. This highlights the growing gap between theoretical perfection and practical implementation in privacy technology. The event serves as a industry-wide warning: in an AI-driven security landscape, the assumption that "undiscovered equals safe" is obsolete. It underscores the urgent need for continuous, proactive security practices combining AI audits, formal verification, and rapid response mechanisms.