The Bitcoin community is divided on whether there is really a need to rush to meet the 2029 deadline of migrating to a quantum-secure network.
For his part, Samsom Mow, founder of JAN3, an advisory for nation-state BTC adoption, has warned against a hurried push for untested and unverified post-quantum (PQ) solutions. He cautioned that,
Solving the QC problem later rather than sooner is the best course of action.
Mow slammed Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s call for a ‘sooner’ PQ upgrade. He stated that it could expose BTC to attack from current classical computers.
Additionally, the proposed PQ solutions would reduce Bitcoin transactions due to larger block sizes.
PQ signatures will likely be 10-125x larger than current ones, and massively reduce throughput. Possibly paving the way for Blocksize Wars 2.0.
In fact, Solana, one of the fastest blockchains, has reported a potential 90% slowdown if current PQ solutions are implemented.
Finally, Mow pointed out the possibility of the U.S. NSA (National Security Agency) pushing current PQ solutions as standards with hidden ‘backdoors’ to infiltrate future systems.
Google urges fast PQ Bitcoin upgrade before 2029
The renewed debate follows a recent report by Google Quantum AI, which found that Bitcoin and most blockchain encryption could be broken sooner than earlier estimates suggested.
According to the findings, advanced quantum processors may require around 500,000 physical qubits or 1,200–1,450 stable logical qubits to compromise crypto security.
This was contrary to the prior estimates of millions of qubits. Google had urged a PQ upgrade by 2029 to prevent nearly 7 million BTC from being at risk.
In short, there is less than three years before further quantum advancement threatens BTC.
Bitcoin’s history complicates this. Protocol changes often take time and spark disagreement.
In fact, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investment projected that BTC will never reach a new all-time high unless it migrates to PQ.
However, some crypto and cypherpunks like Adam Back still hold that physical quantum computers are years away from hitting the market despite recent advancements.
Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, reinforced a similar stance and noted,
Investors should not fret. In our view, there is no security threat to public blockchains from quantum computers today. But it’s time to accelerate efforts to prepare for our post-quantum future.
Apart from the Satoshi-era and Taproot wallets, most investors have migrated to relatively more resistant addresses (Segwit, P2WPKH).
Final Summary
- Jan3’s Samson Mow blasted Coinbase CEO for rushed push for PQ upgrade for Bitcoin, citing transfer speed risks and further attacks.
- Grayscale said QC was not a problem just yet, but urged players to accelerate PQ upgrades.
