Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
Last Friday, SpaceX closed its first trading day at $160.95, with a market capitalization fixed at $2.1 trillion. Although SpaceX still created the largest IPO in U.S. stock market history, compared to the pre-IPO market sentiment, this result did not meet all expectations. Some research institutions, like CFRA, even directly rated SPCX as a "Sell." Musk's "Mars story" was well-received but not commercially successful.(Related reading:Reflections After SpaceX's Debut: A $2.1 Trillion Market Cap, Is It Still Worth Chasing?)
Facing these market concerns, SPCX shocked everyone with its gains at the U.S. market open on Monday. According to Gate's U.S. stock data, SPCX surged after opening, ultimately closing at $192.5, a gain of 19.6%. The closing price was the day's high, pushing the market cap to $2.519 trillion, making SpaceX the 8th largest company globally by market capitalization. However, market sentiment is far from subsiding. According to Hyperliquid data, SPCX's pre-market price has already risen above $214. Therefore, after the U.S. market opens on Tuesday, SPCX is highly likely to continue Monday's upward trend, potentially surpassing Amazon, which ranks 7th, in market value.
U.S.-Iran Understanding Agreement Signed, Retail Investor Enthusiasm for SpaceX Remains Undiminished
From a macro perspective, the understanding agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran this week brought significant positive news to the U.S. stock market. The market widely expects a new round of gains in global stock markets amid stabilizing geopolitical tensions, with SpaceX being one of the beneficiaries.
On June 15th, Trump announced an agreement had been reached with Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz would be opened. Unlike many previous instances of unilateral rhetoric, this agreement was also acknowledged by Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Jalibabadi stated on the same day that the text of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding had been finalized and would be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday (June 19th).
The agreement's conclusion received secondary confirmation from the Iranian President. Additionally, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the agreement reached with Iran was signed electronically over the weekend, indicating the terms are effective, making it unlikely for either side to renounce it. After the news spread, U.S. stocks opened broadly higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.92%, the S&P 500 up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up 3.07%.
Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term agreement between the U.S. and Iran, along with falling oil prices easing inflationary pressures, is shifting the U.S. stock market from a "single-headed rally" to a healthier broad-based advance. The upward momentum in U.S. stocks may no longer be confined to the tech sector but is gradually spreading to broader cyclical industries.
From a market sentiment perspective, SpaceX remains the stock most favored by retail capital. According to Vanda Track data, on June 16th (U.S. local time), it received approximately $93.8 million in net retail buying, accounting for about 73% of the total net retail inflow into individual U.S. stocks that day. This means that for nearly every $4 of incremental retail capital flowing into the U.S. stock market, about $3 flowed into SpaceX.
Given such strong demand for SPCX, SpaceX's underwriters exercised the over-allotment option (Greenshoe) in the IPO, purchasing an additional 83.33 million shares, bringing the total IPO share offering to 638,888,888 Class A ordinary shares. This increased the total financing size of the offering to $85.7 billion, a scale that surpasses the over-allotment arrangements of almost all tech company IPOs on record.
Yet, despite this, reports indicate that during SpaceX's IPO subscription, most qualified retail investors in the U.S. were allocated only about one share. Therefore, under conditions of extreme supply shortage caused by the low float, concentrated buying from retail investors can significantly drive up the stock price.
What's Next for SPCX?
Zerohedge: With Options Launch, Stock Price Could Be Pushed to $400
On June 16th, the influential U.S. financial media outlet Zerohedge published an article stating that once SPCX options begin trading, its stock price could rise to $400 due to a Gamma Squeeze effect, surpassing Nvidia.
A Gamma Squeeze is essentially an upward spiral triggered by market makers being forced to buy stock to hedge their positions. SpaceX has an extremely low float (4.2%) and exceptionally high retail buying interest. Retail investors who haven't bought SPCX stock might turn to purchasing relatively cheaper call options. If massive funds frantically buy call options, market makers would be forced to continuously buy SPCX shares to hedge their risk, thereby pushing the stock price higher and forming a positive feedback loop.
The surge of GameStop (GME) in 2021 is one of the most classic cases of this effect.
Oppenheimer: SPCX Will Continue to Outperform the Market
On June 15th, before the U.S. market opened, investment bank Oppenheimer's analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage on SpaceX, giving it an "Outperform" rating with a near-term price target of $190. After the U.S. market opened this Monday, SPCX closed at $192.5, essentially matching Oppenheimer's target.
Timothy Horan is a 4.70-star-rated analyst at Oppenheimer, primarily focusing on the tech, communications, and telecom sectors. According to Tipranks data, his prediction success rate is 58.82%. He views SpaceX as "the only fully vertically integrated AI company," controlling capital, data, large models, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent, and should not be viewed merely as a traditional aerospace company.
Peter H. Diamandis: Idle Funds Used to Buy Bitcoin, Now Buying SpaceX
On June 14th, renowned entrepreneur, XPRIZE founder, and early SpaceX investor Peter H. Diamandis posted that SpaceX is the "railroad in orbit" that will open up a multi-planetary civilization for humanity, creating immense wealth just as the 19th-century railroads opened the American West. He also predicted that within a year, SpaceX and Tesla would merge to become the first $100 trillion company.
He also stated that over the past decade, whenever he freed up funds from other trades, he would invest them in Bitcoin. But now, whenever he has idle funds, he invests in SpaceX. While he expects the stock price to decline when locked-up shareholders can sell their shares and some cash out, he emphasized that his investment in SpaceX isn't for seeking quarterly stock price gains but for advancing the off-world economy.
Brad Gerstner: SpaceX is a Must-Buy, Must-Hold Asset for Institutional Investors
On June 16th, prominent Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner described SpaceX as a must-buy, must-hold asset for institutional investors in the latest episode of his BG2 podcast. His reasoning is that the company stands at the intersection of two major trends: the space economy and the expansion of AI computing power.
Gerstner said those bearish on SpaceX focus on the company's revenue from last year and investment banks' forecasts for significant revenue growth over the next three years, questioning how few companies can achieve several-fold expansion in three to four years. However, he believes if investors believe in the direction of AGI development, they must accept the premise that the scale of global computing power needed will far exceed current market expectations. Combining this judgment with SpaceX's core business, it's hard to find another company or entrepreneur offering a more direct bet on the future.
