The strict control that the European Union (EU) exercises over carbon emissions may be one of the factors driving the migration of these industries, at least from an operational perspective, to jurisdictions where no carbon emission taxes are levied.
The research "Does carbon pricing lead to carbon leakage from crypto mining? Quantile data on carbon leakage from the energy systems of the EU-27, Russia, and the rest of the world", published by three Vietnamese researchers—Pham Ngoc Toan, Le Tran Trung Hieu, and Nguyen Vu Trung Nguyen—focuses on investigating whether carbon pricing in the EU could be one of the main reasons for the relocation of Bitcoin mining operations to Russia.
To this end, the study analyzed daily emissions in the energy sector of the EU, the rest of the world, and Russia from 2019 to 2025 and compared them with daily Bitcoin closing prices.
The results revealed a statistical correlation between carbon emission pricing in Europe and carbon emissions in Russia, leading to the conclusion that Bitcoin mining operations "migrate" to Russia during off-peak hours when both Bitcoin prices and EU carbon emission allowance prices are rising.
No such statistical connection was observed when analyzing a similar relationship between the EU and the rest of the world, making this finding more significant.
Unlike the EU, Russia lacks a carbon pricing system, meaning mining operations there can be more profitable.
However, since the study did not record the physical relocation of mining equipment to Russia, it emphasizes that this phenomenon may be operational in nature: companies owning equipment in both jurisdictions turn it off in the EU and turn it on in Russia to maximize their profits.
Nevertheless, the study also notes a number of limitations, including the negative impact of China's May 2021 ban on Bitcoin mining on the established correlation, as well as the omission of other significant factors.
Furthermore, starting in 2025, the Russian government introduced a ban on cryptocurrency mining in certain regions, and this year its extension to Moscow was approved, which could complicate the operational relocation of this activity to Russia, narrowing the opportunities for mining companies.
