Resumen
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15, 2026, and prediction markets on Polymarket are offering insights into potential winners. With over $29 million in total trading volume, the markets indicate "One Battle After Another" is the frontrunner for Best Picture with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of major bettors shows one address holding a significant "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate.
In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% chance, overtaking Timothée Chalamet (34%), who was the favorite until recently. Key addresses show mixed strategies, with one top bettor on Jordan having a negative historical profit.
The Best Director and Best Actress categories appear to be near-certainties. Paul Thomas Anderson holds a 94% probability for Best Director, and Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance for Best Actress, making them potential "sure bets" or "arbitrage plays."
Other notable categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads Best Cinematography (73%), and "Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Screenplay (96%). The data provides a unique, market-driven perspective on the upcoming Oscars.
Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will break down the win probability for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeding $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average YES purchase price for "One Battle After Another" at 54.8 cents.
Address Holding ONLY the "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago and currently holds only the single event for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Leads Temporarily with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan leads temporarily with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a 34% probability.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability of winning had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, this address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical P&L of negative $200,000.
Top NO Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, this address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical P&L of $172,000.
Top YES Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top YES holding address for Michael B. Jordan, indicating this address is betting on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor.
Top NO Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, this address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical P&L of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads Temporarily with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson leads temporarily with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, this address has a high win rate of 83.6%, with an average YES purchase price for Paul Thomas Anderson at 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Leads Temporarily with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley leads temporarily with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Other Popular Awards
Additionally, awards with high discussion热度 include:
一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan leads temporarily with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a 21% probability.
二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a 19% probability; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a 7% probability.
三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" leads temporarily with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet".
Preguntas relacionadas
QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards?
AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a 76% probability.
QWho is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award, and what was a significant recent shift in the odds for this category?
AMichael B. Jordan is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant recent shift occurred when Timothée Chalamet, who was previously the frontrunner with an 80% probability, dropped to second place.
QWhich two categories are described as nearly having no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans' based on their high probabilities?
AThe Best Director category, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 91% probability, and the Best Actress category, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.
QWhat is the address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' winning Best Picture, and what is their historical win rate?
AThe address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' is 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, and their historical win rate is 89.7%.
QIn the Best Supporting Actor category, who is the predicted winner and what is their probability?
AIn the Best Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn is the predicted winner with a 73% probability.
Lecturas Relacionadas
Within Strategy's Framework, STRC's Dividend Yield Remains at 12% as Share Price Stays Below Par Value
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy (MSTR), confirmed that the dividend rate for its STRC perpetual preferred shares will remain at 12.00% through August 2026. The rate has increased from 9% at its July 2025 launch to the current high via a "ratchet" mechanism, which permanently raises the rate by 0.5% whenever the share price falls below $95. This mechanism is intended to push the price back toward its $100 par value and support Strategy's "at-the-market" (ATM) program for issuing new shares to fund Bitcoin purchases.
However, the mechanism has not worked as intended. STRC shares closed at $89.46 on July 31, remaining about 10-11% below par value despite the record-high dividend. Competition from rival Strive's higher-yielding SATA securities has pressured demand. The persistent discount has forced Strategy to suspend new STRC issuances via its ATM program, limiting this funding channel for Bitcoin acquisitions. STRC's struggles reflect Bitcoin's own volatility, as the preferred shares historically move in tandem.
Analysts have warned the ratchet structure carries long-term, one-way risk. A law firm is investigating Strategy's ability to maintain dividend payments if Bitcoin's price stays low. Retail investors own roughly 83% of outstanding STRC shares, a group seen as prone to panic selling during downturns.
In response, Strategy has established financial reserves, including a liquidity cushion covering about 26 months of dividend/interest obligations, and a $2 billion share buyback program alongside a Bitcoin monetization framework, though the company emphasized it is not obligated to sell any Bitcoin.
cryptonews.ruHace 3 min(s)
cryptonews.ruHace 3 min(s)
Analyst: Bitcoin's Price Will Drop to $60k in August, Then Rebound to $70k
Financial analyst Andrey Poroshin has provided a new forecast for Bitcoin's price dynamics in August. Poroshin, an analyst at the Bitbanker exchange, expects the cryptocurrency market to experience a downturn this month, with prices retesting the $60,000 level due to a lack of supportive macroeconomic catalysts.
He noted that the recent US Federal Reserve decision to hold interest rates did not significantly impact the market, while inflation remains above the 2% target. Poroshin stated that Bitcoin is ending July under pressure from moderate volatility and a lack of new macroeconomic stimuli, leading to continued market caution.
According to his base scenario, Bitcoin will drop to a range of $60,000 to $62,000 before recovering to $70,000. He pointed out that even $70,000 remains below the cost of mining in the US, which has prompted some miners to shift towards AI data center operations. Poroshin cited the winding down of BitMEX's operations as a potential catalyst for a price rebound, suggesting the exit of weaker players often coincides with market reversals and reduced short-term selling pressure.
He believes Bitcoin is currently less susceptible to geopolitical shocks, such as the Iran-US conflict, and does not expect significant market changes in August related to the pending CLARITY Act. Looking ahead, Poroshin forecasts that September will bring more active price fluctuations driven by potential Fed rate decisions and possible discussions or approval of the CLARITY Act.
cryptonews.ruHace 3 min(s)
cryptonews.ruHace 3 min(s)
Following the Coldcard Hack, One of the Largest Bitcoin Wallet Hacks Recently, a New Wave of Losses Begins! Losses Are Mounting
Following a major hack targeting Coldcard hardware wallets, losses have surged to approximately 1,367 BTC ($88.6 million) across 4,585 addresses. The third wave of attacks stole an additional 207.7 BTC, exhibiting different patterns from the first two. While initial attacks used shared deposit addresses and targeted P2WPKH wallets, the latest wave employed unique recipient addresses per victim and focused on P2WSH addresses. Analysis by Galaxy Research cannot definitively link all three waves to the same attacker, raising the possibility of a second actor exploiting the known vulnerability. The stolen funds, predominantly from wallets holding under 1 BTC, remain unspent. The vulnerable Coldcard firmware was released in March 2021, and all stolen coins originate from after that date.
cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)
cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)
Trump Media sells another 2,628 BTC, holdings fall to 4,261 BTC
Trump Media & Technology Group has sold an additional 2,628 Bitcoin (worth approximately $165 million), continuing a series of sales over the past seven months. According to blockchain data from Arkham cited by Lookonchain, these latest transfers to Crypto.com bring the company's total reported Bitcoin sales to 7,281 BTC (worth about $545 million), reducing its holdings by 63%. The company's remaining Bitcoin holdings now stand at 4,261 BTC, valued at $269.8 million. Trump Media initially purchased 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118,522 before beginning the sales. This activity occurs amid broader scrutiny of crypto ventures linked to former President Donald Trump, as lawmakers debate the CLARITY Act, which focuses on ethics rules, digital asset ownership, and potential conflicts of interest for public officials.
cointelegraphHace 1 hora(s)
cointelegraphHace 1 hora(s)
In Jinjiang, Fujian, a Storage Super Unicorn Lies Quiet
In Fujian's Jinjiang, a city known for sportswear, lies a quiet semiconductor giant: Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Co. (JHICC). Once a promising domestic DRAM manufacturer alongside Yangtze Memory and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), its journey was derailed in 2018 when the U.S. placed it on an Entity List and filed criminal charges for alleged trade secret theft. This halted production for years.
A turning point came in February 2024 when a U.S. federal court found JHICC not guilty. However, it had lost crucial time. While CXMT soared to become a top-valued A-share company in 2024, JHICC, with an estimated valuation of 80 billion RMB, was just restarting. Its current output is primarily customized DDR4 chips, not the advanced DDR5/HBM demanded for AI, but it still benefits from the broader memory chip upcycle.
JHICC's story is tied to Chen Zhengkun, a veteran engineer who left Micron to lead the venture. Founded in 2016 with state-backed funding, JHICC partnered with Taiwan's UMC to develop DRAM technology. Rapid progress was cut short by the U.S. actions, which Micron initiated, partly due to its heavy reliance on the Chinese market.
Post-sanctions, Chen's team worked to rebuild the production line with reduced reliance on U.S. technology. According to its records, JHICC achieved small-scale production and revenue growth under immense pressure. It now focuses on the stable "niche" DRAM market (e.g., TVs, routers) with a monthly capacity of ~40,000 wafers, aiming for 60,000 by 2026. It holds over 1,000 patents but remains on the Entity List.
For Jinjiang, investing in JHICC was a bold industrial leap. The local government provided unwavering financial and logistical support during the crisis, helping the company survive. JHICC has become the anchor for a growing local semiconductor cluster.
Though its scale lags behind domestic peers, JHICC's persistence symbolizes a hard-won foothold in a global market long dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Having missed one boom, it seeks a place in the new AI-driven memory supercycle.
marsbitHace 2 hora(s)
marsbitHace 2 hora(s)
