Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated that the crypto industry will continue to develop even if the CLARITY Act bill fails in the US Senate.
The Senate's summer session will conclude on August 10, with the last working day scheduled for August 7. According to the rules, a motion to end debate on H.R. 3633 can only be filed by the 5th; otherwise, the procedural vote will be postponed until autumn.
As of publication, only personnel matters and a budget resolution are listed in the Senate's motion registry. Meanwhile, the digital asset market regulation bill has been on the committee's calendar since June 1. The House of Representatives approved it in July 2025, and the Banking Committee did so in May 2026.
In early August, Republican Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he hopes to hold a vote on the CLARITY Act before the recess.
"I think we will hold a vote on market structure. Whether we can proceed to consideration — we'll see," he said.
Thune added that the House will remain in session until the entire list of unfinished business is closed.
The main obstacle remains the position of the Democrats. Punchbowl, citing four sources, reports that they will refuse to proceed with the procedure until the White House resolves the issue of the ethics block. Republican Senator Tom Tillis acknowledged that there is no consensus yet.
Polymarket estimates the probability of the law being signed by the end of the current year at 15%, compared to 82% in February.
The Bill Will Enter a 'Zombie' State
A failed vote this week will not provide a definitive answer on the document's fate, Hougan believes. In his opinion, the bill will enter a 'zombie' state.
"Nothing can kill it, but it will keep limping along," wrote the expert.
He allowed for the possibility of consideration being postponed to September or December, when Congress convenes for the 'lame-duck' session. Lawmakers often combine several initiatives into a single package. In such cases, they have to vote for the entire document at once.
Prolonged uncertainty around regulation is keeping some professional investors away from investing in digital assets, Hougan noted. In the absence of a vote, the optimal scenario, he said, would be for Polymarket's odds to fall below 20% — this would remove the issue from the agenda and prepare the market for growth in the autumn.
SEC Rules as a Substitute for the Law
Hougan referred to an interview with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on CNBC on July 27. The head of the regulator stated that the agency is ready to release rules addressing the same issues as the CLARITY Act.
"In the short term, SEC rules under Atkins' leadership are likely to be more crypto- and innovation-friendly than the norms that would result from a bipartisan bill in Congress. They might even act as an accelerator. The risk is that the next administration will appoint a less favorable Chairman of the Commission," noted Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer.
However, he believes that a new SEC chairman cannot undo the progress already achieved by the industry. Hougan cited the following events as arguments:
- The Bitcoin ETF became BlackRock's most profitable exchange-traded fund;
- Nasdaq and JPMorgan are engaged in tokenization;
- Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, together with Coinbase, are preparing a stablecoin platform;
- Robinhood launched its own blockchain with integration of Uniswap and Morpho;
- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued trust licenses to Circle, Ripple, and Paxos.
According to the expert's assessment, even in the most optimistic scenario for regulators, the industry has at least two and a half years before another administration can change the SEC chairman. By that time, reversing course will be impossible — "you can't put the genie back in the bottle," the expert is convinced.
He drew a parallel with the US telecommunications reform: in 1994, the House of Representatives supported the bill almost unanimously (423 against four), but the Senate never brought it to a vote. The market didn't wait. Two years later, Netscape shares were trading on the stock exchange, Amazon and eBay opened, and the internet was flooded with millions of websites. The document was passed in 1996 — with 91 votes against five in the same chamber.
"Congress needs to pass the bill — the sooner, the better for the entire industry. The CLARITY Act is certainly not without flaws, but overall it is a strong and timely document," Hougan concluded.
Recall that at the end of July, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to vote immediately on the CLARITY Act and accused Democrats of dragging out the process for political reasons.
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