Written by: Su Yang
Edited by: Xu Qingyang
On May 20th, US local time, SpaceX formally submitted its S-1 filing publicly to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), initiating its Nasdaq IPO process, with the stock ticker set as 'SPCX'. The company plans to raise $70 to $80 billion through this IPO, targeting a valuation of $1.75 to $2 trillion. It is expected to list on Nasdaq on June 12th.
This is the largest IPO in human history and also Musk's debut in the public markets with absolute control. Post-listing, he will retain approximately 85.1% of the voting power, leaving public shareholders with almost no voice.
As early as April 1st this year, SpaceX had already confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC under the internal code name 'Project Apex', marking the first formal legal step in the IPO process.
According to the prospectus, Goldman Sachs leads as the lead underwriter, with Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and 15 other underwriters acting as co-managers participating in the offering.
This filing also marks the first time SpaceX has revealed its financial cards to the outside world—Starlink is the cash cow, xAI is the money-burning black hole, and Musk has forcefully rewritten an aerospace company into a 'AI + Aerospace' super narrative. So, what supports this $2 trillion valuation?
01 Starlink Generates $11.4 Billion Annually, AI Business Loses $6.4 Billion in a Single Quarter
SpaceX's financial data presents a picture of 'polar opposites'.
SpaceX Key Financial Data
For the full year 2025, SpaceX achieved consolidated revenue of $18.67 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.584 billion, but an operating loss of $2.589 billion, with a net loss close to $4.94 billion. The losses almost entirely came from the AI business—xAI lost $6.4 billion in 2025, while Starlink contributed $4.4 billion in operating profit over the same period. The money made in space was entirely burned by the large models on Earth.
In Q1 2026, the company's revenue was $4.694 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $1.127 billion, and the operating loss was $1.943 billion.
Breaking down by business, the Connectivity business, i.e., Starlink, contributed $3.26 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of revenue and serving as the absolute mainstay; the AI business (xAI) generated $818 million in revenue; and the Space Operations business (including rocket launches and government contracts) brought in $619 million.
SpaceX Core Business Financial Data
Looking at the balance sheet, as of March 31, 2026, SpaceX held $15.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $7.8 billion in marketable securities, total assets of $102.1 billion, total liabilities of $60.5 billion, including debt and financing leases of approximately $30.3 billion.
Even with tens of billions in cash on hand, facing annual capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion, the company's cash flow pressure remains immense.
Starlink's operational data is equally astonishing.
SpaceX Space Business Highlights
The prospectus shows that as of March 31, 2026, Starlink had reached 10.3 million users, compared to only 8.9 million at the end of 2025, a net increase of 1.4 million users in a single quarter. With approximately 9,600 satellites in orbit, Starlink's adjusted EBITDA reached $7.2 billion, with an EBITDA margin as high as 63%, an improvement of 22 percentage points compared to 41% in 2023. Free cash flow was approximately $3 billion, making it the only business segment within SpaceX capable of generating positive cash flow.
However, the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Starlink's individual customers has declined from $99 in 2023 to $81 in 2025, and further to $66 in Q1 2026, shrinking by over 30% in two and a half years.
This is a classic price-for-volume logic—SpaceX trades lower prices for rapid user growth, but as the scale increases, the payment capability per user is actually declining. If ARPU continues to fall, to achieve the market's long-term revenue expectations, the growth rate of the user base must persistently outpace the rate of price decline.
SpaceX's capital expenditure for the full year 2025 was $20.7 billion, exceeding its total revenue for the year, with the AI department spending a staggering $12.7 billion, already surpassing the combined total of aerospace and satellite businesses.
SpaceX Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow
xAI burns through an average of about $1 billion per month, with annual cash consumption around $14 billion. For reference, OpenAI and Anthropic burned approximately $9 billion and $4 billion respectively in 2025. SpaceX's AI segment alone surpasses the sum of these two major competitors. While spending aggressively, in terms of revenue scale and growth rate, xAI also lags far behind these two rivals.
More noteworthy are the valuation multiples.
SpaceX's IPO targets a valuation of $1.75 to $2 trillion, which is approximately 266 times its EBITDA. In comparison, Meta's valuation multiple is 16x, Alphabet's is 25x, Nvidia's is 36x, and even Tesla, known for its high valuation, is only 119x.
SpaceX is entering the public market with a valuation multiple more than double that of Tesla. Whether this represents value discovery or bubble narrative will be the first test posed by the market post-listing.
The prospectus also explicitly states: the company does not intend to pay dividends on Class A shares for the foreseeable future. This means investors can only bet on stock price appreciation—this is a pure growth stock with no parachute.
02 85% Voting Power: Musk's 'One-Man Dynasty'
SpaceX has adopted a multi-class share structure. The company issues Class A common stock (1 vote per share) to public investors, while Class B common stock (10 votes per share) is held by Musk and insiders.
Management and Director Shareholdings
According to the prospectus data, Musk holds approximately 42.5% of SpaceX's equity, but due to the Class B super-voting shares, he controls about 84% to 85.1% of the total voting power. This means that post-listing, regardless of how many shares public investors purchase, Musk alone can decide board composition, major mergers and acquisitions, and even amendments to the corporate charter.
The prospectus further discloses that Musk will continue to hold three key positions: Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and Chairman of the Board, and has the unilateral authority to remove or fill Class B board seats. SpaceX will also apply for a 'controlled company' exemption, freeing it from the governance rule requiring a majority of independent directors.
Besides Musk, the prospectus shows no other shareholders hold more than 5%. However, SpaceX's shareholder list still features notable institutions: Alphabet (Google's parent company), as an early strategic investor, currently holds about 5%; Fidelity Investments holds approximately 2%; Silicon Valley VCs Valor Equity Partners, Founders Fund, Sequoia Capital, etc., collectively hold about 10%; additionally, there are hedge funds like D1 Capital and Darsana, as well as Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. SpaceX has also established a large employee stock option pool to incentivize its core technical team.
In Silicon Valley, multi-class share structures are quite common. According to Fenwick's 2025 Corporate Governance Survey, 27.3% of the top 150 tech companies in Silicon Valley still use multi-class structures, a proportion far exceeding the 10.1% of S&P 100 index components. However, the design specifics differ among companies.
But SpaceX has taken this control mechanism to an unprecedented degree—85% of voting power concentrated in one individual, making it stand out prominently compared to other tech giants.
Looking at Tesla, another public company owned by Musk, the situation is completely different. Tesla operates on a 'one share, one vote' principle with no super-voting shares, which is why Musk often faces challenges and questions from activist shareholders.
03 xAI Merger: The 'Narrative Engine' for a $2.5 Trillion Valuation
The 'COLOSSUS II' Facility in Memphis, Tennessee
In February this year, SpaceX completed the acquisition of xAI at an overall valuation of $1.25 trillion, with xAI valued at $250 billion. Prior to the merger, SpaceX's independent valuation was approximately $1 trillion. The AI story added about $250 billion in premium.
This transaction had two immediate effects. First, revenue growth, with the AI business contributing $818 million in Q1 2026. Second, narrative elevation—SpaceX transformed from an 'aerospace company' into a composite of 'AI + Aerospace'.
Wall Street's valuation expectations for SpaceX have consequently been raised from $1.25 trillion to a range between $1.75 and $2 trillion.
The prospectus also reveals even more ambitious long-term plans. SpaceX intends to deploy its first orbital AI computing pods by the end of this decade, operating AI computing facilities in space.
xAI Business Highlights
Musk's judgment is that producing AI computing power in space is cheaper than on Earth.
Simultaneously, SpaceX also mentions 'space mining' for extracting metal resources from near-Earth asteroids. These plans currently generate no revenue and don't even have technological prototypes, but they constitute the sexiest pages in the prospectus and represent the areas with the greatest valuation divergence.
04 Terafab, Cursor Acquisition, and Financial Services: Musk's 'Ecological Alchemy'
The prospectus also hides several easily overlooked strategic moves.
Among them, SpaceX and Tesla jointly announced the Terafab project, aiming to integrate various stages of semiconductor production into a single system to produce two types of chips: one optimized for Tesla's Full Self-Driving system, the Optimus humanoid robot, and the Robotaxi fleet; the other being radiation-resistant, high-power space chips.
According to public information, the total project investment could reach up to $119 billion, utilizing Intel's 14A process technology, with the goal of directing 80% of its computing power capacity toward orbital AI data centers.
Additionally, SpaceX plans to acquire Cursor using Class A common stock as consideration after the IPO completion, implying an equity value of $60 billion for the transaction. SpaceX has secured an exclusive option to acquire Cursor at a $60 billion valuation, exercisable 30 days post-IPO, with a reverse breakup fee as high as $10 billion. Several core engineering team members from Cursor have already joined xAI.
The company also plans to launch a financial product covering payments, banking, and other services, extending into the financial services sector.
The common thread among these businesses is that they are all in early stages, require significant capital burning, and rely on SpaceX's fundraising ability and Musk's storytelling prowess.
05 Market Divergence: Banking All-Stars Amidst Skepticism
The underwriter lineup revealed an unexpected twist, which actually reflects the divergence on Wall Street.
Morgan Stanley, which has long maintained close ties with Musk, was edged out from the top lead underwriter position by Goldman Sachs, a result that surprised some market observers, given that Morgan Stanley led Tesla's IPO and the Twitter acquisition financing.
University of Florida scholar, 'IPO Guru' Jay Ritter, explicitly stated that if SpaceX's valuation reaches $2 trillion, he would choose to short the stock once it begins trading. Ritter further noted that for new listings with inflation-adjusted revenue exceeding $100 million and a P/S ratio over 40x, they tend to significantly underperform the market on average over three years post-listing.
Greater concern stems from the AI business losses—xAI lost $6.4 billion in 2025, and the $4.4 billion earned by Starlink couldn't fill this hole. If AI continues to burn cash while commercialization lags expectations, SpaceX's overall profitability pressure will increase dramatically.
BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello bluntly stated that SpaceX's listing would 'split' the retail investor base supporting Musk, putting pressure on Tesla's stock price.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak earlier reminded clients that massive investments in hardware AI might just be the beginning. Simultaneously, Musk's simultaneous leadership of Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X, and other companies has raised questions among some institutional investors about potential management focus dilution.
06 Conclusion
June 12th will be a referendum testing the 'Musk Premium'.
Starlink provides a solid cash cow, xAI provides a sexy narrative, and Musk provides absolute control. The upside is extremely high decision-making efficiency; the downside is there are no brakes.
Goldman Sachs calls this IPO a once-in-a-generation opportunity, but some analysts compare it to buying a lottery ticket—the jackpot is Mars, the consolation prize is Earth.
Cook handed Apple over to Tenus, a successor with a hardware engineering background, but Musk doesn't plan to hand SpaceX over to anyone—going public just adds a group of passengers without voting rights; he remains the sole occupant of the cockpit.
What can you say? That's very Musk.
