Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential bullish December, challenging a decade-old bearish seasonal pattern where November losses typically extend into year-end declines. Key factors supporting this shift include reduced leverage, with open interest dropping from $94 billion to $60 billion, and Bitcoin’s price reclaiming its monthly volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution. Liquidity dynamics have also shifted, with deep liquidity clusters moving upward, and around $3 billion in short positions set to liquidate near $96,000.
Market structure diverges from historical cycles due to spot ETF inflows, introducing constant structural demand and accelerating price discovery. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, while not obsolete, is no longer time-aligned, resembling extended accumulation phases like mid-2016 or late-2019. Macro liquidity (M2) growth has plateaued, creating a late-cycle environment where risk assets rally despite underlying economic softening. Supporting indicators, such as CNY/USD and ETH/BTC correlations, along with improving PMI data and gold’s relative strength, suggest continued risk-on momentum rather than cycle fatigue.
While buy-sell ratios show urgency, analysts caution this may reflect positioning squeeze rather than sustainable accumulation. Overall, December’s performance may depend more on structural forces—ETF flows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macro correlations—than traditional halving-driven周期 patterns.
cointelegraph_中文Hace 37 min(s)