Is the Signal That Triggered During Previous Bitcoin Bull Rallies Repeating? Warning!

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2026-09-09Actualizado a 2026-09-09

Resumen

Cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin is approaching a critical level based on the MVRV Z-Score indicator, but the current situation does not yet confirm the start of a new bull market. The Z-Score is nearing its 365-day moving average, a key level that has historically signaled a market regime shift. Historically, a sustained break above this 365-day moving average signaled a transition from a recovery phase to an expansion phase, preceding major bull markets in 2017 and 2020-2021. Currently, however, the indicator remains below this average. A confirmed break and hold above it could signal renewed unrealized network profit and the start of a new growth period. Conversely, a rejection from this level might indicate insufficient overall market profitability to support a broader bull rally. The analysis notes a key difference from past cycles: during previous major cyclical lows, the MVRV Z-Score fell below zero into undervalued territory, which has not occurred in the recent correction. This could suggest Bitcoin is undergoing a structurally shallower correction or that a capitulation event on the scale of past macro lows is not yet complete. Additionally, the Z-Score has formed lower peaks in each successive cycle, indicating that market valuation excesses are becoming more constrained over time even if price reaches new highs. For a bullish scenario to materialize, according to CryptoQuant, the MVRV Z-Score must recover and sustain above its ...

CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, stated that Bitcoin is approaching a critical level on the MVRV Z-Score indicator, but the current situation does not yet confirm the start of a new bull market. According to their analysis, the MVRV Z-Score is nearing its 365-day moving average, which in past market cycles stood out as a crucial regime change level.

CryptoQuant added that historically, a sustained break above the 365-day moving average of the MVRV Z-Score signaled a transition from a recovery phase to an expansion phase for the market. It was noted that the breakout in 2015-2016 preceded the 2017 bull market, the movement in 2020 preceded the 2020-2021 rally, and the 2023 recovery coincided with the final period of expansion.

Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score Remains Below Average.

However, the indicator still remains below the 365-day moving average. According to CryptoQuant, if Bitcoin breaks and sustains above this level, it could indicate a resumption of unrealized profit in the network and the beginning of a new growth period. Conversely, a rejection from this level might mean the overall market profitability is not yet high enough to support a broader bull rally.

The analysis also identified a key point differentiating the current market cycle from previous bottoms. In past major cycle bottoms, the MVRV Z-Score fell below zero, reaching a zone of low valuation. This did not occur in the recent correction. CryptoQuant noted that this could mean Bitcoin is experiencing a structurally shallower correction, or that capitulation on the scale observed in previous macro lows is not yet complete.

On the other hand, it was noted that the MVRV Z-Score has been forming lower peaks in each cycle. According to CryptoQuant, this trend indicates that even if Bitcoin's price continues to reach higher peaks, the valuation skews experienced by the market are becoming increasingly constrained over time.

According to CryptoQuant's risk assessment, for a bullish scenario, the MVRV Z-Score needs to recover and remain above the 365-day moving average. A rejection from this level would indicate the market is in a "recovery" regime, while the indicator returning to zero could reinforce the view that the current correction process is not yet complete.

*This is not investment advice.

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Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the key signal from the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score that CryptoQuant states must occur to confirm a new bull market phase?

AFor a new bull market phase to be confirmed, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score must sustainably break above and hold above its 365-day moving average.

QHow did the MVRV Z-Score's performance during the recent market correction differ from its behavior in previous major cyclical lows?

AIn previous major cyclical lows, the MVRV Z-Score dropped below zero into a low valuation zone, but it did not do so during the recent correction, suggesting a structurally shallower correction or incomplete capitulation.

QAccording to the analysis, what does a bounce of the MVRV Z-Score from the 365-day moving average likely indicate about the market state?

AA bounce of the MVRV Z-Score from the 365-day moving average indicates the market is in a 'recovery' mode, meaning overall market profitability may not be high enough yet to support a broader bull rally.

QWhat historical precedent is mentioned in the article where a breakout of the MVRV Z-Score above its moving average preceded a major price rally?

AThe article mentions that the breakout in 2015-2016 preceded the 2017 bull market, and the 2020 movement preceded the 2020-2021 rally.

QWhat long-term trend has been observed in the peaks of the MVRV Z-Score across market cycles, according to CryptoQuant?

AThe MVRV Z-Score has been forming lower peaks in each cycle, indicating that market valuation excesses are becoming more limited over time even if Bitcoin's price reaches new highs.

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