Author: Jocy@IOSGVC
Today, after meeting with an OG, these four sentences came to mind, echoing the sentiments of countless people still actively working on the front lines of Web3. I reposted a tweet I wrote as a whistleblower over a year ago. While I predicted the outcome correctly, it's not the result any practitioner wanted. No one thought this would happen. But it is happening. No one is willing to speak out. So I'll take the bold step of speaking out.
Prologue
This week in Shanghai, I went to the MuShanghai event hosted by Sun in Hongqiao. The month-long event was divided into 4 theme weeks—biotech, AI, culture, robotics. Over 2000 people applied globally, and after screening, 800+ were selected to attend on-site, ranging from Stanford entrepreneurs to former OpenAI engineers, YC, HF0, and Jacob from Frontier Tower. Sun, Sunny, and a third person, along with a team of twenty volunteers, accomplished something perhaps only they in all of China could do—solving visas, international internet access, and government relations to create a true global gateway.
For that alone, everyone in the industry should applaud them. This is the most successful team moving from a crypto community to a diversified one. But after walking around a few times, my feelings were complex. Nearly half of the attendees had crypto backgrounds. The new labels they wore were biotech founder, AI agent builder, robotics entrepreneur, and cultural curator. Some were genuinely exploring their next journey; others were gracefully preparing to leave crypto. This is a grand self-rescue unfolding among people in this industry—in a way I've never seen before.
Main Text
1/ In the last two years, I've been more pessimistic than ever, but also less willing than ever to give up
I've met many people recently and heard many stories. The industry's problem is no longer just a bear market; it's that the ecosystem's positive feedback mechanism is broken. I've compiled these scattered observations, conversations, and reflections. This is not a rant, but a hope that more people will join in to carry this burden together.
2/ "Small-probability bad events" are occurring in batches
I've been reading probability theory lately. We old-timers are accustomed to understanding the market in cycles—last cycle had alt season, this cycle will have one too. But this year, all previously underestimated low-probability events are happening simultaneously: 50–60% of China's major Web3 developers have moved to AI. Those who leave will essentially never return. Thousands of projects raised tens of billions of dollars, yet few truly mainstream applications emerged. Wall Street, Trump, and sovereign funds have taken Bitcoin, leaving less space for native builders. US fundraising is booming, while the Asian ecosystem faces a survival crisis, with entrepreneurs bleeding during token listings and investors exiting. It's not that the cycle hasn't come; it's that this cycle's script is completely different from the past.
3/ Regarding Ethereum: I'm not pessimistic, but I am worried
Ethereum's reform is now a matter of urgency. The best windows of opportunity in the past—the 2021 bull market, the turning point of 2022—were the ideal times to push application innovation and create a super app. The industry's greatest attention, most capital, and best talent were concentrated in those windows. But the direction at that time was placed on technical narratives like ZK, L2.
The technical direction itself isn't wrong; the mistake was channeling all resources into niche directions at the very moment when mass-market products should have emerged for the mass market. Now, in a bear market, trying to launch a super app is ten times harder than it was those two years. Ethereum's price weakness is essentially the weakness of the entire Web3. Because Ethereum carries the most capital, the most talent, and the most attention in the industry. Whether it can rise again concerns the future of millions of practitioners.
4/ Vitalik may be living in a massive information bubble
A strong feeling I've had recently is that the people around Vitalik mostly don't dare to directly tell him how difficult the industry is, where Ethereum's real troubles lie. Rent-seeking groups are increasing, and small circles and cliques are becoming more severe. New directions and opportunities often extend outward along the connections of the existing circles. Ordinary community members and practitioners have little chance to communicate normally with Vitalik or give feedback.
Community dissatisfaction and complaints are filtered out, layer by layer, kept outside the gate. This isn't anyone's individual fault. It's that after an organization rapidly expands to 200+ people, its feedback mechanisms haven't kept up. But the cost of slowly boiling the frog will ultimately fall on everyone still building in this ecosystem.
5/ Practitioners lack positive feedback; society and the next generation don't seem to approve
This is the most common, real situation for practitioners of this generation, across geographies: In China, the industry is labeled as a grey industry, often associated with pyramid schemes. In Hong Kong, due to a series of exchange collapses, practitioners are default labeled as scammers. In Singapore, crypto is considered a low-class industry. In the US, compared to AI entrepreneurs, crypto practitioners hardly have any social status.
I heard a practitioner say his high school child refuses to learn about wallet private keys, believing his father's work is not respectable. Many founders, as parents, dare not say what they do at school parent-teacher meetings. The next generation simply doesn't see this as a worthwhile career to pursue. When an industry reaches a point where even saying "I'm part of it" is difficult to voice, its succession problem is no longer abstract; it's imminent.
6/ The succession problem is arriving
Most of Ethereum's first generation of core developers have started families and had children. This is a very natural life stage; they can't code for over ten hours a day like they did ten years ago. But where is the next generation? We've tried: graduate and doctoral students, engineers from Web2 giants, early community geeks. But in such a thriving era for AI, what can we offer to retain them? Bitmain and ByteDance recruited fresh graduates at the same time, with similar salaries—10 years later, the equity returns differed by tens of millions.
This generation of young people sees the outcomes of the previous generation; why would they choose crypto over AI? Moreover, we're not just trying to retain the next generation; we're competing directly with AI for talent. Solana, Ethereum, AI labs, robotics companies are all fishing in the same talent pool. The packages offered by frontline crypto projects can hardly be competitive anymore. Successors won't emerge on their own. It requires systematic cultivation: crypto school, research grants, developer funds, long-term mentor mechanisms. Paradigm, a16z, AllianceDAO, ResearchHub are doing it. The Chinese-language community must also have people doing it.
7/ Some expectations for Vitalik
I want to say this in an encouraging way because attacking is meaningless. Vitalik is the industry's most influential founder. He's not just the chief scientist; he's the lighthouse for the industry's direction. During Ethereum's most critical transition period, he needs to return to the entrepreneurial frontlines. Not to the person he was in 2014, but to the person who, armed with the reflections of these years, returns to his entrepreneurial roots. The bear market is the best time to build the next generation of products. He needs to bring together core developers, the community, and the second generation of young people, advancing towards the next 10 years together. He must have people around him who can directly tell him the real situation.
8/ The divergence of US-China OGs: The ecosystem's ability to generate blood
Last year I wrote "Don't Let the Casino Devour the Cathedral," comparing these two paths. Today I must say it again: The fundraising environment for Chinese entrepreneurial teams is extremely severe. 90% of Asian market-based funds are in deep trouble. This means the Asian Web3 ecosystem has no capacity for self-renewal. Once the top few funds can't hold on, the entire ecosystem will collapse. The divergent choices made by US and Chinese OGs after earning their first bucket of gold are particularly glaring today. Most US OGs are still building—people like Rune, Hayden, Juan are continuously reinvesting their wealth into the ecosystem.
Most Chinese OGs, after making money, chose to cash out and leave. Some moved into investing in AI, even fewer are doing real next-generation building. This is not a moral accusation. I hope that after receiving the industry's benefits, Chinese OGs can turn back and help the new generation of young people. Establishing a sound ecosystem and forming a positive feedback loop is the only way for this industry to survive.
9/ How practitioners can survive
Most web3 companies and institutions will continue to lay off 30%+ of staff amid the upcoming AI wave and pessimistic market conditions. Therefore, survival is more important than anything else. After talking about systemic issues, back to the individual. I'm also in this quagmire, so I want to share a few points. Find your justification. Why are you still here? Not for token prices, not for KOL traffic.
It's because you believe in this, because you've benefited from this industry in the past, because your team and investors need you. Figure out this "why," and the rest will have direction. Keep work and life full. The industry's low pressure permeates daily emotions. Don't let token prices define your self-worth. Read more, meet offline friends more, spend more time with family, do things unrelated to the market. This is the most important homework during a bear market. Face difficulties directly, but don't let disappointment ferment into giving up. The community's current sentiment isn't "sense of crisis"; it's "disappointment." The difference between these two words is that a sense of crisis means wanting to change, disappointment means wanting to give up. Strive to keep yourself in the former category.
Learn new things. I'm also learning AI. This week at MuShanghai, seeing so many crypto practitioners put on new labels to explore biotech, AI, robotics, I was actually moved. With ability, we can choose; without ability, we can only be chosen. Web3 remains IOSG's most important business; we won't give up. Of course, this doesn't prevent me from using AI to arm and enhance our workflows and strengthen our arsenal. Find your small alliance and confidence group. Deeply ally with 5, 6 historically proven, maturely styled friends/institutions.
Whatever is lacking—education, funding, talent networks—supplement it. Self-rescue is more important than waiting for a savior. Learn to make peace with yourself. This is something I'm still practicing myself. This market hasn't rewarded those doing the right things; it rewarded a bunch of scammers and speculators. That fact is true. But the meaning of what you do shouldn't be priced by the market. Allow yourself to fail during a bear market, allow yourself to feel down, allow yourself to do things that "seem unproductive." This isn't giving up; it's building strength for the next journey.
10/ We need more lighthouses
What the industry lacks most isn't money, not technology, it's lighthouses. It's not just Vitalik alone who needs to be a lighthouse. Everyone who remains here, who still believes in this, can become a lighthouse—give a confused young founder thirty minutes, give a team with a depleted runway a grant, give a laid-off engineer a referral, write a sincere reflection instead of a flashy narrative. Each beam of light doesn't shine far. But together, they become the reason for those still moving forward in the dark not to give up. People like Sun are doing it. People like Lao Hu silently give money every month to support those non-mainstream explorations. Everyone is trying their best in what they can do.
11/ Written for everyone reading this
If you are an OG: What the industry gave you, please give a share back to the next generation. Not a million-dollar grand gesture, but a mailing list, a referral, a direct deposit to a market-based fund manager, an EIR grant to a struggling entrepreneur. The young generation needs to believe that "building this is still worth doing." If you are a founder: Don't fight alone. Tell trustworthy people about your real situation. If you are a builder/researcher: Keep building. Not the kind of building powered by love alone, but the kind that exchanges your labor for the rewards it deserves. Make the next generation believe this still holds true professionally.
12/ Conclusion
Please, everyone who sees this, forward it to every OG you know. Let them illuminate others. Don't forget the benefits this industry brought them in the past. Call on more OGs and industry leaders to rediscover their sense of responsibility, speak up for the industry, fund more entrepreneurs, and give the next generation a chance to continue building Web3—not just by the power of love. Whether the casino devours the cathedral isn't just Vitalik's business, not just the EF's business. It's the shared business of everyone still here.
Many ask me how they can endure this cycle, with all the pressure pushing them to leave. Often the choice is just a step away. Many young people need an old OG to tell them how to survive a bear market. But I know if our generation doesn't step up, the next generation won't even have the option to "step up."
Do a little bit with what you have.
