Inside MSTR’s MSCI battle – Could it trigger Bitcoin’s next catalyst?

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-11Last updated on 2025-12-11

Abstract

Q4 has been bearish for Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), particularly those heavily invested in Bitcoin. MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds over 50% of its treasury in BTC, faces potential exclusion from MSCI indexes—a move that could trigger an estimated $2.8 billion in passive outflows. However, this risk extends beyond MSTR as more companies aggressively accumulate Bitcoin, intensifying competition among DATs. MSTR’s formal response to MSCI’s proposal was met with a bullish market reaction, reflected in a rising stock price and stronger on-chain metrics, including a significant premium to its Bitcoin-backed NAV. The outcome of MSCI’s decision is seen as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin, highlighting broader sector implications.

Q4 has turned out to be bearish, especially for Digital Asset Treasuries.

For context, DATs with “single-asset–heavy” portfolios have come under increased scrutiny lately. And with Bitcoin [BTC] dominating so many balance sheets, the spotlight isn’t just on MicroStrategy [MSTR].

Instead, given the growing dominance of BTC-focused DATs in the market, it’s clear that this issue is targeting a broader network. The chart below makes it clear: The top 100 DATs now collectively hold 1,073,832 BTC.

Sure, among these, only MSTR holds more than 50% of its treasury in BTC.

The risk of MSCI excluding MSTR is therefore meaningful. In fact, Bloomberg analysts have already estimated a potential $2.8 billion passive outflow if this occurs, highlighting the impact on index-tracking investors.

But does this protect the rest of the BTC DATs?

Not really. Many BTC DATs are expanding their holdings, demonstrating strong conviction in long-term Bitcoin accumulation. In this environment, staying on top of MSTR-MSCI updates is more crucial than ever.

On-Chain signals highlight MSTR’s role in Bitcoin DATs

There’s been a key shift in the rankings among Bitcoin DATs.

For instance, President Trump’s family–backed American Bitcoin Corp added 416 BTC, bringing its total to 4,783 BTC. The result? This move has pushed the company to the 22nd largest BTC DAT, overtaking GameStop.

In short, competition among Bitcoin DATs is heating up. Consequently, MSTR’s MSCI response is being closely watched, highlighting that the impact extends beyond MSTR as more companies accumulate BTC.

Recently, MSTR officially responded to MSCI, requesting that the proposed exclusion be withdrawn and outlining key reasons supporting its case. The market reacted bullishly, with MSTR’s intraday stock price jumping 3.16%.

On-chain metrics are also showing improvement. Its 30-day average trading volume is up $4, and daily trading volume now surpasses that of the e-commerce platform Amazon. The standout? MSTR’s mNAV sits at 1.18 at press time.

This shows that MSTR’s market valuation is higher than its net asset value. With an mNAV of 1.18, the stock was trading at an 18% premium to its Bitcoin‐backed NAV, at press time, signaling strong investor confidence.

All in all, rising competitive pressure, shifting DAT rankings, and stronger on-chain signals are setting the stage for a pivotal period, making upcoming MSCI updates a potential catalyst for Bitcoin.

Final Thoughts

MSTR’s MSCI review is emerging as a sector-wide risk event, amplifying attention on Bitcoin-heavy treasuries.
Strengthening on-chain metrics and a bullish market response to MSTR’s defense highlight growing investor confidence, making upcoming MSCI decisions a potential Bitcoin catalyst.

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