Author: Jake Pahor
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: Australian trader Jake Pahor publicly discloses his real portfolio: 100% Bitcoin, zero altcoins. This isn't blind faith; it's the choice of an ordinary person with a full-time job and a family to care for, made after heavy losses in the last cycle—complex strategies have a time cost, and Bitcoin beat nearly every altcoin he held last cycle. He uses a CSH scoring system for dynamic dollar-cost averaging (DCA), buying more when the score is lower, with exit plans also hardcoded. The value of this system isn't in copying it, but in letting you see clearly: the only thing that can withstand market sentiment at 11 PM is the rules you wrote down during calm times.
Every SMSF (self-managed super fund) consultation ends the same way.
We finish the paperwork. Trust deeds, bank accounts, custody, audit trails. All the things that keep you out of trouble. Then there's a pause. I know exactly what's coming next.
"So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What should I even buy?"
I can't answer. Not unwilling. Unable. The person asking might be 42 with twenty years left, or 68 with three. They might sleep soundly through a 30% drawdown or panic at 10%. No one can answer this for someone else. Anyone who gives an answer is just guessing.
But by now, hundreds have asked me this, and it's why Tom and I built CSH. So this week I'm giving the only honest answer: how my own money actually works, and the system that drives it. Not for you to copy. For you to see what a system looks like, and then build your own.
Everything below runs on the free tier of the app.
CSH Risk Dashboard
CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early Cycle (Stable, +0.7 this week). In the bottom 22% of all readings since 2011, has remained in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days.
Key Metrics:
BTC: $64,492 / A$91,717 (7-day: essentially flat)
BTC Dominance: 59.2%
ETH/BTC: 0.029
TOTAL3/BTC (Altcoin market cap priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — Previous cycle bottoms have probed around 0.25
Fear & Greed Index: 26 - Fear
Total Market Cap: $2.27 Trillion
Review: Last issue, I said three things must happen before this bear market ends. None of them have happened. A week later, still zero for three. The only notable change: BTC climbed back above the 200-week moving average (~$63,300). A necessary condition, far from sufficient.
Jake's Take: Two weeks of sideways chopping between roughly $62k and $66k, with the score stuck in the 20s the entire time. Boring price action, noisy macro. My plan didn't change this week. That is the plan.
Image: CSH Risk Score Dashboard, score 25.6/100, in Early Cycle, has remained in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days. Source: Crypto Super Hub
How I Invest My Own Money
No headline this week. The question above is more important than any news cycle, so here's my answer, three rules.
Rule One: Benchmark against two things. I track my portfolio in two currencies: USD and Bitcoin. The second number keeps me honest. If your altcoin doubles but Bitcoin triples, you lost. You just didn't notice because you were only watching the dollar number. Fifteen years in, BTC is still the benchmark for the entire asset class. If I'm going to hold anything else, it's because I genuinely believe it will outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?
Rule Two: Core first, know your limits. Right now, I'm 100% Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. This isn't forever, it just fits my life. I have a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I'm building CSH on the side. Altcoin rotation is a job for people with time. I know because I tried it last cycle, holding a bunch of alts with no plan, and got smashed, while Bitcoin quietly outperformed almost everything I held. The lesson wasn't that alts are bad. It's that my portfolio has to fit my real life. Start with BTC as your core. Add complexity only when you have the time and skill to take it on.
Rule Three: Let the system do the buying. My money runs a dynamic DCA through the CSH score. Buying on schedule, but only when the score is within my 10 to 30 range. The sizing is dynamic: the lower the score, the bigger the buy. Score 30 gets a modest allocation. Score 15 gets several times more. Every decision was made months ago, in the calm. The market can't renegotiate with me at 11 PM.
The same mechanism runs in reverse. My plan sells dynamically in tranches above an exit range. Last cycle, writing down the exit rules was the difference between realizing cycle gains and riding the rollercoaster back down. Bitcoin has followed a rhythm very close to four years its entire life. I'm not going to wing it against that.
Where am I this week? Score 25.6, scheduled buying running within the range, bigger buys still waiting for a sub-20 score that hasn't appeared yet. Two weeks of deliberately taking no new action. Inaction is a position, and right now it's my position.
Jake's Workbench
Big update this week: A full revamp of my Plans feature. Email alerts are live. You can set portfolio targets and watch them fill. Order history is two clicks away, and the portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the live score. It's becoming the screen I check, not price.
This is my own plan, screenshotted directly from the app:
Image: The author's own DCA plan, having bought 0.2279 BTC since late June at an average price of A$87,755, targeting 2 BTC. Source: Crypto Super Hub
Three orders logged since late June, 0.2279 BTC bought towards a 2 BTC target, average buy price A$87,755. A quick note before anyone misreads this screen: this plan only tracks the portion I've bought since the feature went live a few weeks ago. It's a slice of my holdings, not the whole thing. But this is the system from the section above, running publicly, with the log accumulating from here.
Next for Workbench: CSV upload and exchange sync, to make order logging simpler.
Altseason talk is back. My feed is full of rotation calls. My watched metric says not yet: the altcoin market cap priced in BTC is at 0.37. Every cycle bottom sees it probe the 0.25 area before alts start running. Dominance is still rising, ETH/BTC is still flat. So: If someone pitches you an altcoin rotation this week, ask what benchmark they're using.
Image: (TOTAL3 - USDT)/BTC chart, altcoin market cap priced in Bitcoin at 0.37, previous cycle bottoms probed around 0.25. Source: Trading View
The Fed meets Wednesday (US time). ~85% probability of rates on hold, but whispers of a hike are getting louder. So: Unless your plan hinges on next month's rate, this is noise. My plan doesn't.
Visa launches a stablecoin platform, letting banks issue their own stablecoins without building the infrastructure. So: This is what bear markets are for. While nobody's watching, infrastructure gets built.
Morgan Stanley enables BTC, ETH, and SOL spot trading for E*TRADE clients. So: Millions of ordinary brokerage accounts are now one click away from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers isn't coming from Crypto Twitter. They're coming from the screens they already use.
Watching Next Week
FOMC decision, 4 AM Thursday (AEST). Hold is largely priced in, so the reaction will depend on the wording. Expect two-way chop. Chop is not a signal.
The 200-week MA, ~$63,300. BTC is sitting almost exactly on it. A weekly close above or below this line is something the whole market watches.
Sub-20 score. Still zero days below 20 this cycle. This is the trigger my larger buys are waiting for. If it arrives, you'll hear it here first.
One question spawned an entire company: "Should I buy now?" The honest answer was never a date or a coin. It was a system that fits your life, matches your nerves, and is written down before the market gets loud.
Mine is above. If you want to build your own, the score and plan builder are free.
I'm curious: Reply directly with a number—the percentage of Bitcoin in your portfolio right now. I'll share the stats next week.
See you next week.
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