Gold Breaks Through Stocks: The 1.45 Lifeline and the Truth About Your Shrinking Assets

marsbitPublicado a 2026-01-28Actualizado a 2026-01-28

Resumen

Gold's Breakthrough vs. Stocks: The Critical 1.45 Level and the Truth About Your Shrinking Assets Analyst Benjamin Cowen highlights a critical financial indicator: the S&P 500 divided by the Gold price (SPX:GOLD), currently at 1.45. Historically, this ratio has signaled major market shifts when breached, preceding the Great Depression (1929), the 1970s stagflation (1973), and the Global Financial Crisis (2008). We are now at this pivotal level again. Despite nominal all-time highs in the S&P 500, when measured in gold, the index has fallen 46% over the past four years. This "Bleed" represents a period of sustained relative devaluation for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies against gold, regardless of gold's own price movements. Cowen's analysis, based on mid-term election year cycles, projects a potential timeline: Gold may peak in Q1-Q2 2026, experience a significant correction in Q3-Q4 2026, and cryptocurrencies would likely bottom alongside it. This would pave the way for a new cycle in 2027-2028. Key observations include: * A shift to a gold-dominant market regime, not a simple rotation between assets. * Rising unemployment, particularly among new labor market entrants, signals economic deceleration. * Gold has already technically broken out against the S&P 500. * Altcoins are experiencing multi-layered devaluation against gold, bitcoin, and stocks. The crucial signal to watch is a monthly close of the SPX:GOLD ratio below 1.44. The core advice is t...

Author:Alan Chen

A Neglected Number

If your investment portfolio includes U.S. stocks, gold, Bitcoin, or altcoins, the following number might change your perspective on these assets.

The S&P 500 divided by the price of gold (SPX:GOLD) – this ratio is now 1.45.

Most people don't care about this number. After all, the stock market is still hitting new highs, the numbers in accounts are still rising, Bitcoin is hovering at high levels, who cares how it calculates against gold?

But Benjamin Cowen cares. He recently released two videos specifically analyzing this ratio and its impact on the entire cycle of stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies. His conclusion is straightforward: we are standing at an extremely dangerous historical juncture, and this juncture will determine which assets you hold for the next 2-3 years.

Why? Because the number 1.45 has appeared three times in financial history, and what happened after each time was not pleasant. More crucially, based on the historical patterns of midterm election years, Cowen provides a clear timeline:

  • First Half of 2026 (Q1-Q2): Gold may peak
  • Second Half of 2026 (Q3-Q4): Gold undergoes a significant correction, cryptocurrencies follow and bottom out
  • 2027-2028: A new cycle begins, this correction lays the foundation for the bottom of the next major rally

But before this timeline arrives, there is a more pressing reality: from 2021 to now, the S&P 500 has nominally reached new highs, but if you divide it by the price of gold, this ratio has fallen from 2.7 to 1.45. Put another way: over the past four years, the S&P 500 index, priced in gold, has fallen by 46%.

Your stock account might show a profit, but if converted into gold, you are actually losing money. Your Bitcoin might still be at high levels, but it is also continuously depreciating relative to gold. This is not a theoretical game; it's the real change in the relative value of assets—what Cowen calls "The Bleed".

And the more important question is: Will this key level of 1.45 be broken on a monthly close? If it breaks, history tells us what will happen next.

Part 1: Historical Validation of 1.45

Three Appearances, Three Turning Points

The ratio of the S&P 500 divided by gold has touched or fallen below 1.45 at three critical moments in financial history:

1929: The stock market was rejected at this level, subsequently triggering the Great Depression.

1973: The stock market bounced back to this level multiple times in the 1960s, but after breaking below it in 1973, a regime change occurred in the market. What followed was a 50% correction and a decade of stagflation.

2008: It broke below 1.45 again, and the financial crisis ensued.

Cowen points out in "A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks" that this is not a coincidence. Every time this ratio breaks down around 1.45, it marks a shift in the cycle from stock dominance to gold dominance.

Now it's 2026, and we are back at 1.45.

The Cost of the 2020 "Exception"

Some might say, didn't it also touch 1.44 in March 2020? Why didn't it crash then?

It indeed didn't crash, but what was the cost?

The Federal Reserve printed $6 trillion, lowered interest rates to zero, and global central banks opened the floodgates together. That wasn't a natural market recovery; it was the result of artificial intervention.

The question now is: If 1.45 breaks again, does the Fed have the same room and tools? Inflation is not yet fully under control, interest rates are still high, and debt levels are already at record highs. The rescue cost this time might be higher, or it might not be implementable at all.

Part 2: Rotation is a Misjudgment, The Bleed is Reality

The Market Doesn't Follow the Script You Expect

Many investors believe in a logic: when gold rises too much, it will correct, and then funds will rotate back into stocks, and stocks will rise again.

Cowen refutes this view with historical data.

In 1973 and 2008, when the S&P/Gold ratio broke down, there was no "fund rotation." The actual situation was: both stocks and gold fell, but stocks fell more.

Cowen's observation is: when the ratio breaks, funds do not flow from gold to stocks, but to cash or other hard assets. Risk appetite declines, and investors choose defense over offense.

The Bleed: The Ongoing Process of Relative Depreciation

Cowen proposed the concept of "The Bleed"—in a gold-dominated cycle, risk assets will continuously depreciate relative to gold.

This depreciation does not depend on whether gold rises or falls:

  • If gold rises, stocks may move sideways or underperform
  • If gold falls, stocks usually fall more

The result is: regardless of how the price of gold itself fluctuates, the value of stocks relative to gold is shrinking.

This has been the reality of the past four years. The S&P 500, priced in gold, has fallen 46%. Investors holding stock funds might see paper gains, but investors holding gold have achieved higher returns.

Part 3: Recession Signals Are Accumulating

The Warning of Hiring Freezes

Unemployment is rising. Cowen points out a detail often overlooked: The rise in unemployment comes not only from layoffs but more from companies stopping the hiring of new people.

According to data he cites, the unemployment rate for young people aged 16-19 has reached 15.7%, much higher than other age groups. This means new entrants to the labor market face greater difficulties. Companies aren't necessarily cutting veteran employees, but they have stopped expansionary hiring.

This is a classic signal of an economic slowdown.

Trends in State Data

Unemployment rates are now rising in 27 states. Historically, when unemployment rates rise in all states, a recession is basically confirmed. Although we are not there yet, the trend is forming.

Cowen uses "climbing the wall of worry" to describe the current state of the market—it seems to be still rising, but the support is weakening.

Part 4: Gold Has Already Broken Out

Look at it Inverted: Gold / S&P 500

If you invert the chart and look at Gold divided by the S&P 500 (Gold / S&P 500), the signal is clearer: Gold has already broken out against stocks.

Cowen demonstrates this pattern in "Gold Breaks out against Stocks". Gold broke through long-term highs in 2023, retested and confirmed the breakout in 2024, and began accelerating its rise in 2025.

This is a classic pattern in technical analysis: Breakout → Retest → Continue rising.

Cowen compared this chart with other assets and found similar patterns appearing in multiple markets, including Bitcoin dominance, palladium, and the Hang Seng Index. This is not an isolated phenomenon but a broad-based trend shift.

Gold's retest is complete; according to this pattern, it may now enter a phase of sustained upward movement.

The Situation for Altcoins

For cryptocurrency investors, the situation is more severe.

Cowen exited his altcoin investments in 2022. His reasoning: Altcoins are not only falling against Bitcoin but also against gold and silver, even hitting new lows.

He emphasizes: "Don't marry an asset class. You trade the market you're in, not the market you want."

Altcoin holders have experienced multiple depreciations over the past few years: continuously losing value relative to gold, relative to Bitcoin, and even relative to stocks.

Part 5: The 2026 Timeline

Gold's Mid-Term Correction

Cowen studied the historical performance of gold in midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) and found that gold typically follows a pattern:

Peak in the first half: Reach a high in Q1 or early Q2

Correction in the second half: Experience a significant pullback in Q3 or Q4

Lay the foundation for the next cycle's bottom

If this pattern continues to hold, the path for gold in 2026 could be:

  • Q1-Q2: Continue rising or oscillate at high levels
  • Q3-Q4: Significant correction, searching for a bottom

Cowen's prediction is: "It could fall significantly probably in the third quarter, find a low, and then build on that to develop into 2027-2028."

Cryptocurrencies Follow Gold

Cowen believes that cryptocurrencies will only bottom when gold bottoms.

This means:

  • If gold bottoms in Q3/Q4 of 2026
  • Cryptocurrencies will also find a bottom at the same time
  • Then both will together start the new cycle of 2027-2028

For cryptocurrency investors, this means that the time from now until Q3 of this year might not be the best time to position. The real opportunity awaits gold's correction to completion.

Two Possibilities for Stocks

When gold corrects in Q3/Q4, what will happen to stocks?

Based on "The Bleed" theory, there are two scenarios:

Scenario A: Gold falls, stocks fall more

This was the pattern in 1973 and 2008. Gold corrects 10%, stocks might correct 30-50%.

Scenario B: Gold falls, stocks move sideways or rise slightly

This is a relatively mild scenario, but the Gold/SPX ratio would still decline, meaning gold's relative performance would still outperform stocks.

Regardless of the scenario, the core logic remains unchanged: In a gold-dominated cycle, risk assets continuously depreciate relative to hard assets.

Part 6: What Indicators to Watch

Monthly Close is Key

Daily and weekly fluctuations are just noise. The monthly close is the true trend confirmation.

If the monthly close of the S&P/Gold ratio falls below 1.44, that is an important signal. Historically, every time it broke below this level, a significant correction or economic recession followed.

The ratio is currently around 1.45, and the monthly close has not confirmed a breakdown yet. But the trend is clear: gold is strengthening, and stocks are relatively weakening.

Don't Lock Yourself into a Single Asset

The core point Cowen repeatedly emphasizes is: Don't marry an asset class.

If you only hold stocks,坚信"long-term it will definitely rise", you might experience a long period of relative depreciation.

If you only hold altcoins, waiting for "my turn will come eventually", you might find that moment never arrives.

The market will tell you what it is doing. Observe, adjust, adapt, rather than clinging to beliefs.

Current Market Structure

Based on Cowen's analysis, the current market structure shows:

  • Hard assets (gold, cash, government bonds) are strengthening
  • Risk assets (stocks, altcoins, high-yield bonds) are relatively depreciating

This is not to say you should sell all your stocks and buy gold. But you need to be aware: We are in a period of regime change, and strategies that worked in the past may fail in the future.

Conclusion

1.45 is not an ordinary number. It is the echo of 1929, the warning of 1973, the rehearsal of 2008.

Now it's back.

Benjamin Cowen does not predict that the market will definitely crash, nor does he say you must sell everything. But he uses data to point out: History has never been gentle at this point.

You can choose to believe "this time is different," or you can choose to respect historical patterns.

You can continue to hold stocks waiting for rotation, or you can re-examine your asset allocation.

You can ignore 1.45, or you can take it as a reminder: In financial markets, survival is more important than proving yourself right.

The monthly close will tell us the answer. Until then, stay清醒, stay flexible, stay respectful of the data.

Because the market doesn't care what you want. It will only show what it truly is.

Data Sources:

  • Benjamin Cowen YouTube video "A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks"
  • Benjamin Cowen YouTube video "Gold Breaks out against Stocks"
  • S&P 500 vs. Gold historical ratio data
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data

Disclaimer: This article is based on public data and historical analysis, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risks, invest with caution.

This is Alan Chen. Use data to see the trend, use logic to protect your principal.

Criptos en tendencia

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the significance of the S&P 500 to Gold ratio reaching 1.45, according to Benjamin Cowen's analysis?

AAccording to Benjamin Cowen, the S&P 500 to Gold ratio reaching 1.45 is a critical historical level that has signaled a major market regime shift from a stock-dominant cycle to a gold-dominant cycle. Historically, this level was breached in 1929 (leading to the Great Depression), 1973 (followed by a 50% market correction and stagflation), and 2008 (preceding the financial crisis). A monthly close below this level is seen as a strong warning sign of potential significant economic downturn or market correction.

QWhat is 'The Bleed' concept described in the article?

A'The Bleed' is a concept described by Benjamin Cowen referring to the persistent process where risk assets, like stocks, continuously depreciate in value relative to gold during a gold-dominant market cycle. This devaluation occurs regardless of whether the price of gold itself is rising or falling. If gold rises, stocks may underperform or trade sideways; if gold falls, stocks typically fall even more. The result is a steady erosion of the value of risk assets measured in gold terms.

QWhat is the predicted timeline for gold and cryptocurrency markets based on mid-term election year patterns?

ABased on historical patterns of mid-term election years (like 2014, 2018, 2022), Benjamin Cowen predicts a timeline where gold is likely to peak in the first or second quarter of 2026 (Q1-Q2). This would be followed by a significant correction in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 (Q3-Q4), during which cryptocurrencies are expected to bottom alongside gold. A new cycle for both asset classes is then projected to begin in 2027-2028, building from this established low.

QAccording to the analysis, what happens to the stock market when the S&P/Gold ratio breaks below 1.45?

AHistorical analysis shows that when the S&P/Gold ratio breaks below 1.45, it does not typically result in a 'rotation' of funds from gold back into stocks. Instead, money often flows into cash or other hard assets as risk appetite declines. The typical outcome is that both stocks and gold can decline, but stocks fall significantly more, leading to a major market correction or bear market, as seen in 1973 and 2008.

QWhat technical pattern does the Gold/S&P 500 ratio chart show, and what does it indicate?

AThe chart for the Gold/S&P 500 ratio (the inverse of the S&P/Gold ratio) shows a classic technical analysis pattern: a breakout above a long-term resistance level, followed by a successful retest of that level (acting as new support), and then a continuation of the upward trend. Cowen notes this breakout occurred in 2023, the retest was in 2024, and the acceleration higher began in 2025. This pattern indicates a confirmed and strengthening trend of gold outperforming the stock market.

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Desarrollo Continuo y Alianzas: Actualizaciones y mejoras continuas a las ofertas del proyecto, incluyendo alianzas estratégicas con otros actores en el espacio blockchain, han moldeado a SPERO,$$s$ en un jugador competitivo y en evolución en el mercado cripto. Conclusión SPERO,$$s$ se erige como un testimonio del potencial de web3 y las criptomonedas para revolucionar los sistemas financieros y empoderar a los individuos. Con un compromiso con la gobernanza descentralizada, la participación comunitaria y funcionalidades diseñadas de manera innovadora, allana el camino hacia un paisaje financiero más inclusivo. Como con cualquier inversión en el espacio cripto que evoluciona rápidamente, se anima a los posibles inversores y usuarios a investigar a fondo y participar de manera reflexiva con los desarrollos en curso dentro de SPERO,$$s$. El proyecto muestra el espíritu innovador de la industria cripto, invitando a una mayor exploración de sus innumerables posibilidades. Mientras el viaje de SPERO,$$s$ aún se desarrolla, sus principios fundamentales pueden, de hecho, influir en el futuro de cómo interactuamos con la tecnología, las finanzas y entre nosotros en ecosistemas digitales interconectados.

150 Vistas totalesPublicado en 2024.12.17Actualizado en 2024.12.17

Qué es $S$

Qué es AGENT S

Agent S: El Futuro de la Interacción Autónoma en Web3 Introducción En el paisaje en constante evolución de Web3 y las criptomonedas, las innovaciones están redefiniendo constantemente cómo los individuos interactúan con las plataformas digitales. Uno de estos proyectos pioneros, Agent S, promete revolucionar la interacción humano-computadora a través de su marco agente abierto. Al allanar el camino para interacciones autónomas, Agent S busca simplificar tareas complejas, ofreciendo aplicaciones transformadoras en inteligencia artificial (IA). Esta exploración detallada profundizará en las complejidades del proyecto, sus características únicas y las implicaciones para el dominio de las criptomonedas. ¿Qué es Agent S? Agent S se presenta como un marco agente abierto innovador, diseñado específicamente para abordar tres desafíos fundamentales en la automatización de tareas informáticas: Adquisición de Conocimiento Específico del Dominio: El marco aprende inteligentemente de diversas fuentes de conocimiento externas y experiencias internas. Este enfoque dual le permite construir un rico repositorio de conocimiento específico del dominio, mejorando su rendimiento en la ejecución de tareas. Planificación a Largo Plazo de Tareas: Agent S emplea planificación jerárquica aumentada por la experiencia, un enfoque estratégico que facilita la descomposición y ejecución eficiente de tareas complejas. Esta característica mejora significativamente su capacidad para gestionar múltiples subtareas de manera eficiente y efectiva. Manejo de Interfaces Dinámicas y No Uniformes: El proyecto introduce la Interfaz Agente-Computadora (ACI), una solución innovadora que mejora la interacción entre agentes y usuarios. Utilizando Modelos de Lenguaje Multimodal de Gran Escala (MLLMs), Agent S puede navegar y manipular diversas interfaces gráficas de usuario sin problemas. A través de estas características pioneras, Agent S proporciona un marco robusto que aborda las complejidades involucradas en la automatización de la interacción humana con las máquinas, preparando el terreno para una multitud de aplicaciones en IA y más allá. ¿Quién es el Creador de Agent S? Si bien el concepto de Agent S es fundamentalmente innovador, la información específica sobre su creador sigue siendo elusiva. El creador es actualmente desconocido, lo que resalta ya sea la etapa incipiente del proyecto o la elección estratégica de mantener a los miembros fundadores en el anonimato. Independientemente de la anonimidad, el enfoque sigue siendo en las capacidades y el potencial del marco. ¿Quiénes son los Inversores de Agent S? Dado que Agent S es relativamente nuevo en el ecosistema criptográfico, la información detallada sobre sus inversores y patrocinadores financieros no está documentada explícitamente. La falta de información disponible públicamente sobre las bases de inversión u organizaciones que apoyan el proyecto plantea preguntas sobre su estructura de financiamiento y hoja de ruta de desarrollo. Comprender el respaldo es crucial para evaluar la sostenibilidad del proyecto y su posible impacto en el mercado. ¿Cómo Funciona Agent S? En el núcleo de Agent S se encuentra una tecnología de vanguardia que le permite funcionar de manera efectiva en diversos entornos. Su modelo operativo se basa en varias características clave: Interacción Humano-Computadora Similar a la Humana: El marco ofrece planificación avanzada de IA, esforzándose por hacer que las interacciones con las computadoras sean más intuitivas. Al imitar el comportamiento humano en la ejecución de tareas, promete elevar las experiencias de los usuarios. Memoria Narrativa: Empleada para aprovechar experiencias de alto nivel, Agent S utiliza memoria narrativa para hacer un seguimiento de las historias de tareas, mejorando así sus procesos de toma de decisiones. Memoria Episódica: Esta característica proporciona a los usuarios una guía paso a paso, permitiendo que el marco ofrezca apoyo contextual a medida que se desarrollan las tareas. Soporte para OpenACI: Con la capacidad de ejecutarse localmente, Agent S permite a los usuarios mantener el control sobre sus interacciones y flujos de trabajo, alineándose con la ética descentralizada de Web3. Fácil Integración con APIs Externas: Su versatilidad y compatibilidad con varias plataformas de IA aseguran que Agent S pueda encajar sin problemas en ecosistemas tecnológicos existentes, convirtiéndolo en una opción atractiva para desarrolladores y organizaciones. Estas funcionalidades contribuyen colectivamente a la posición única de Agent S dentro del espacio cripto, ya que automatiza tareas complejas y de múltiples pasos con una intervención humana mínima. A medida que el proyecto evoluciona, sus posibles aplicaciones en Web3 podrían redefinir cómo se desarrollan las interacciones digitales. Cronología de Agent S El desarrollo y los hitos de Agent S pueden encapsularse en una cronología que resalta sus eventos significativos: 27 de septiembre de 2024: El concepto de Agent S fue lanzado en un documento de investigación integral titulado “Un Marco Agente Abierto que Usa Computadoras Como un Humano”, mostrando las bases del proyecto. 10 de octubre de 2024: El documento de investigación fue puesto a disposición del público en arXiv, ofreciendo una exploración profunda del marco y su evaluación de rendimiento basada en el benchmark OSWorld. 12 de octubre de 2024: Se lanzó una presentación en video, proporcionando una visión visual de las capacidades y características de Agent S, involucrando aún más a posibles usuarios e inversores. Estos marcadores en la cronología no solo ilustran el progreso de Agent S, sino que también indican su compromiso con la transparencia y la participación comunitaria. Puntos Clave Sobre Agent S A medida que el marco Agent S continúa evolucionando, varios atributos clave destacan, subrayando su naturaleza innovadora y potencial: Marco Innovador: Diseñado para proporcionar un uso intuitivo de las computadoras similar a la interacción humana, Agent S aporta un enfoque novedoso a la automatización de tareas. Interacción Autónoma: La capacidad de interactuar de manera autónoma con las computadoras a través de GUI significa un salto hacia soluciones informáticas más inteligentes y eficientes. Automatización de Tareas Complejas: Con su metodología robusta, puede automatizar tareas complejas y de múltiples pasos, haciendo que los procesos sean más rápidos y menos propensos a errores. Mejora Continua: Los mecanismos de aprendizaje permiten a Agent S mejorar a partir de experiencias pasadas, mejorando continuamente su rendimiento y eficacia. Versatilidad: Su adaptabilidad en diferentes entornos operativos como OSWorld y WindowsAgentArena asegura que pueda servir a una amplia gama de aplicaciones. A medida que Agent S se posiciona en el paisaje de Web3 y criptomonedas, su potencial para mejorar las capacidades de interacción y automatizar procesos significa un avance significativo en las tecnologías de IA. A través de su marco innovador, Agent S ejemplifica el futuro de las interacciones digitales, prometiendo una experiencia más fluida y eficiente para los usuarios en diversas industrias. Conclusión Agent S representa un audaz avance en la unión de la IA y Web3, con la capacidad de redefinir cómo interactuamos con la tecnología. Aunque aún se encuentra en sus primeras etapas, las posibilidades para su aplicación son vastas y atractivas. A través de su marco integral que aborda desafíos críticos, Agent S busca llevar las interacciones autónomas al primer plano de la experiencia digital. A medida que nos adentramos más en los reinos de las criptomonedas y la descentralización, proyectos como Agent S sin duda desempeñarán un papel crucial en la configuración del futuro de la tecnología y la colaboración humano-computadora.

561 Vistas totalesPublicado en 2025.01.14Actualizado en 2025.01.14

Qué es AGENT S

Cómo comprar S

¡Bienvenido a HTX.com! Hemos hecho que comprar Sonic (S) sea simple y conveniente. Sigue nuestra guía paso a paso para iniciar tu viaje de criptos.Paso 1: crea tu cuenta HTXUtiliza tu correo electrónico o número de teléfono para registrarte y obtener una cuenta gratuita en HTX. Experimenta un proceso de registro sin complicaciones y desbloquea todas las funciones.Obtener mi cuentaPaso 2: ve a Comprar cripto y elige tu método de pagoTarjeta de crédito/débito: usa tu Visa o Mastercard para comprar Sonic (S) al instante.Saldo: utiliza fondos del saldo de tu cuenta HTX para tradear sin problemas.Terceros: hemos agregado métodos de pago populares como Google Pay y Apple Pay para mejorar la comodidad.P2P: tradear directamente con otros usuarios en HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): ofrecemos servicios personalizados y tipos de cambio competitivos para los traders.Paso 3: guarda tu Sonic (S)Después de comprar tu Sonic (S), guárdalo en tu cuenta HTX. Alternativamente, puedes enviarlo a otro lugar mediante transferencia blockchain o utilizarlo para tradear otras criptomonedas.Paso 4: tradear Sonic (S)Tradear fácilmente con Sonic (S) en HTX's mercado spot. Simplemente accede a tu cuenta, selecciona tu par de trading, ejecuta tus trades y monitorea en tiempo real. Ofrecemos una experiencia fácil de usar tanto para principiantes como para traders experimentados.

1.1k Vistas totalesPublicado en 2025.01.15Actualizado en 2026.06.02

Cómo comprar S

Discusiones

Bienvenido a la comunidad de HTX. Aquí puedes mantenerte informado sobre los últimos desarrollos de la plataforma y acceder a análisis profesionales del mercado. A continuación se presentan las opiniones de los usuarios sobre el precio de S (S).

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