Full Text of Bank of Japan Statement: 25 Basis Point Rate Hike, Further Adjustments Considered

深潮Publicado a 2025-12-19Actualizado a 2025-12-19

Resumen

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75% on December 19, marking the first rate hike in 11 months and bringing the rate to its highest level in 30 years. The decision was unanimously approved by the policy board. The central bank will guide the unsecured overnight call rate to around 0.75%. The rate for the complementary deposit facility was set at 0.75%, and the basic loan rate was set at 1.0%. The BOJ stated that the Japanese economy is recovering moderately, though some weaknesses remain. It expressed high confidence that companies will continue to raise wages steadily, sustaining a positive cycle of wage and price increases. Core CPI inflation continues to rise moderately as firms pass on higher labor costs. The BOJ judged that an adjustment to its monetary easing was appropriate to achieve its 2% price stability target sustainably. It noted that financial conditions remain accommodative and will continue to support economic activity. Looking ahead, the BOJ signaled it will continue to adjust the degree of monetary easing and raise policy rates further as economic activity and prices improve, provided the outlook materializes. Key risks to the outlook include the impact of overseas trade policies, domestic corporate wage and price-setting behavior, and developments in financial and foreign exchange markets.

Author: Jinshi Data

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate level hit a 30-year high, marking the first rate hike in 11 months since January 2025.

Full Text of Policy Statement

Changes in Money Market Operations Guidance

At today's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan's Policy Board unanimously voted to set the money market operations guidance for the inter-meeting period as follows:

The Bank of Japan will guide the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75%.

In line with the adjustment of the money market operations guidance, the Bank of Japan unanimously voted to adjust the applicable rates for its related measures.

(1) Applicable Rate for Complementary Deposit Facility

The applicable rate for the complementary deposit facility (i.e., the rate applied to the portion of financial institutions' current account balances at the Bank of Japan, excluding required reserves) is 0.75%.

(2) Basic Loan Rate

The basic loan rate applicable under the complementary lending facility is 1.0%.

Japan's economy is showing a moderate recovery overall, but there are still some areas of weakness. Against the backdrop of wage trends, the labor market remains tight, and corporate profits are expected to remain high overall, even considering the impact of tariff policies.

In this context, taking into account the positions of both labor and management in the annual spring wage negotiations and the firsthand information collected by the Bank of Japan's head office and branches, it is highly certain that following this year's solid wage increases, companies will continue to raise wages steadily next year, and the risk of companies interrupting their proactive wage-setting behavior is expected to be low.

Although uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economy and the impact of trade policies in various economies remain, these uncertainties have somewhat decreased. In terms of prices, as companies continue to pass on wage increases to sales prices, underlying consumer price index (CPI) inflation continues to show a moderate upward trend.

Based on recent data and firsthand information, it is highly certain that the mechanism of synchronized moderate increases in wages and prices will be maintained. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of achieving the baseline scenario, in which the underlying CPI inflation rate broadly aligns with the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the forecast period of the October 2025 "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" (Outlook Report), is increasing.

Given these developments in economic activity and prices, the Bank of Japan judges that it is appropriate to moderately adjust the degree of monetary easing from the perspective of achieving the 2% price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner. After the policy rate adjustment, real interest rates are expected to remain significantly negative, and accommodative financial conditions will continue to strongly support economic activity.

Regarding future monetary policy operations, given that current real interest rates are significantly low, if the economic activity and price outlook outlined in the October 2025 Outlook Report is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing as economic activity and prices improve. With regard to the 2% price stability target, the Bank of Japan will implement monetary policy in a timely manner based on changes in economic activity, prices, and financial conditions, from the perspective of achieving the target in a sustainable and stable manner.

Japan's Economic Activity and Prices: Current Situation and Outlook

Japan's economy is showing a moderate recovery overall, but there are still some areas of weakness. Overseas economies are growing moderately overall, but show some weakness in parts due to trade and other policies of various economies. Exports and industrial production are largely flat in trend, but are affected by U.S. tariff increases.

Corporate profits remain high overall, although the manufacturing sector has seen some downward impact from tariffs, and business sentiment remains at a favorable level. In this situation, business fixed investment is trending moderately upward.

Private consumption remains resilient against the backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, but is affected by rising prices. On the other hand, housing investment has declined.

Meanwhile, public investment remains largely flat. Financial conditions remain accommodative.

In terms of prices, as wage increases continue to be passed on to sales prices, and influenced by factors such as rising food prices including rice, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index excluding fresh food has recently remained at around 3%. Inflation expectations are rising moderately.

Due to the impact of trade and other policies in various economies, overseas economic growth is slowing, which affects the domestic economy through channels such as declining corporate profits. Japan's economic growth is expected to remain moderate, but factors such as accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide support.

Thereafter, as overseas economies return to a growth trajectory, Japan's economic growth rate is expected to pick up. As the impact of rising food prices, including rice, gradually diminishes, and partly due to government measures to address price increases, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI excluding fresh food is expected to slow to below 2% by the first half of fiscal 2026.

Thereafter, as the economic growth rate picks up, the sense of labor shortage intensifies, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations rise, underlying CPI inflation and the rate of increase in the CPI excluding fresh food are expected to gradually increase and, in the latter half of the forecast period of the October 2025 "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices," reach levels broadly consistent with the price stability target.

Risks to the outlook include: the trajectory of overseas economic activity and prices under the influence of trade and other policies of various economies, corporate wage and price-setting behavior, and developments in financial and foreign exchange markets. It is necessary to pay close attention to the impact of these risks on Japan's economic activity and prices.

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Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat was the new benchmark interest rate set by the Bank of Japan, and how does it compare historically?

AThe Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. This level is the highest in 30 years.

QHow did the policy committee vote on the decision to change the money market operations guide?

AThe policy committee voted unanimously (all members in favor) to pass the decision.

QWhat is the Bank of Japan's assessment of the mechanism between wages and prices?

AThe Bank of Japan assesses that the mechanism of wages and prices rising moderately in tandem will be maintained, with companies continuing to pass on wage increases to sales prices.

QWhat is the future outlook for Japan's core CPI inflation according to the Bank's statement?

AThe Bank expects the core CPI inflation (excluding fresh food) to slow to below 2% by the first half of fiscal 2026, before gradually increasing to a level broadly consistent with the price stability target in the latter half of the projection period (around October 2025).

QWhat are the key risks to the economic and price outlook identified by the Bank of Japan?

AThe key risks include overseas economic activity and prices under the influence of trade and other policies of various economies, the wage- and price-setting behavior of firms, and developments in financial and foreign exchange markets.

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