The 30% weekly gain puts the $2500 mark to the key test.
Ethereum surged 30% over the week, putting the $2500 level to its first real test. For months prior, buying had largely concentrated within the $1900–$2050 bottom range; after the supply in that zone was absorbed, ETH rapidly broke through key resistance on expanding volume, once approaching $2568. However, the rapid ascent paused near $2458, indicating bulls have not yet turned $2500 into solid support. The RSI has retreated from above 90 to 70.81, yet the price has not fallen sharply in tandem—momentum has cooled but the trend remains intact.
Back Above Holders' Average Cost After 108 Days
ETH has climbed back above its realized price after 108 days below this level. The realized price represents the average cost basis for all holders. When the spot price returns above it, more investors re-enter a state of floating profit, and near-breakeven holdings lose some of their "sell-on-breakeven" urgency. Selling pressure may thus decrease, but this improvement only holds meaning if ETH can sustain closes above the average cost. Should the price fall back again, the recently restored confidence could quickly weaken.
ETF Inflows Exceed $1.5 Billion Over Two Weeks
Institutional capital is providing fresh demand for this rally. The latest weekly net inflow into Ethereum ETFs reached $824.42 million, following an inflow of $697.18 million the previous week—totaling over $1.5 billion across two weeks. Total ETF assets have risen from $10.52 billion on August 14 to $15.23 billion. That funds continued to increase exposure as ETH neared $2500, rather than taking profits at highs, suggests institutional demand is still absorbing market supply. However, the strong inflows have not yet fully confirmed that $2500 has been firmly established as support.
$2426 and $2568 to Determine the Next Move
If bulls can reclaim and close decisively above $2500, the immediate upside target would be the prior breakout zone around $2568; continued ETF inflows would strengthen evidence that the price is being accepted by the market. Conversely, a decisive break below $2426 would signal insufficient high-level buying interest and growing bearish pressure. For retail investors, $2500 is not merely a psychological round number—it is a watershed level jointly validated by holder cost basis, institutional flows, and technical structure.
