Author: New Huo Technology
The cryptocurrency market presented a rare contradiction over the past week: capital flowed in massively, yet sentiment lingered in a state of panic.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $853 million last week, marking the largest weekly increase since mid-April. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed over 80% of this amount. The spot Ethereum ETF also attracted an inflow of $245 million during the same period, bringing the total weekly inflow for crypto ETFs to over $1.1 billion.
However, there were no signs of celebration in the market. The Fear & Greed Index continued to hover between 31 and 32, firmly in the 'Fear' zone. Bitcoin's negative premium on Coinbase has persisted for 82 days, setting a new record for the longest streak in the history of this metric. This is often interpreted as a signal that institutional demand is insufficient to absorb retail selling pressure. This divergence between capital inflows and market sentiment is precisely the most noteworthy phenomenon in the current market.
On the macroeconomic front, last Friday's US July non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly recorded a negative growth of 23,000 jobs, significantly missing the market expectation of an 80,000 increase. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, primarily due to workers exiting the labor force. This data notably reduced the probability of a September interest rate hike. On Polymarket, the current probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September is only 36%. The next critical macroeconomic node is the release of the July CPI data on Wednesday, August 12th, which will be the last core macro indicator before the September 16th FOMC meeting. If inflation continues to decline, it will strengthen expectations for monetary easing, benefiting risk assets. If inflation rebounds, it could push up US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, suppressing market liquidity.
Regarding policy, the CLARITY Act failed to be voted on before the Senate's August recess. Senator John Thune has filed a cloture motion, with a procedural vote expected around September 15th. The direction of this bill will determine the progress of the US digital asset regulatory framework. If passed, it will significantly improve regulatory expectations and accelerate institutional capital inflows. If deadlocked, policy uncertainty will continue to suppress valuations of risk assets.
In terms of industry dynamics, a firmware vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet led to the theft of 1,500 to 2,000 bitcoins last week, approximately equivalent to $100 million to $130 million, highlighting the risks of self-custody. This may drive funds towards compliant custodians and ETF channels in the short term. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy sold 1,638 bitcoins last week, with founder Michael Saylor clarifying that his "never sell" commitment applies only to his personal holdings, sparking market discussion.
Technically, Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $64,800 to $65,200, with both trading volume and volatility at low levels. The weekly EMA 240 at $63,500 provides clear support; the price briefly fell below this level last week but recovered the next day. However, the daily EMA 60 at $65,100 continues to act as a resistance, a pressure that has been present since May. Key resistance levels above are at $68,300 and $72,700, with support below at $63,500 and $62,500.
New Huo Research Institute believes that the current market is still in the stage of confidence recovery and consolidating a bottom during a bear market trough, with the sustainability of ETF capital flows being the core short-term driver.
