Rain Protocol’s (RAIN) market cap has remained above $3 billion since its launch in late 2025. In fact, until its latest bout of correction, RAIN, a decentralized predictions market platform token, seemed to be outperforming the entire market.
It did so by rallying by more than 18% in just 24 hours. This, in the middle of a large token unlock whose sell pressure was not enough to shake the bulls.
What is RAIN Crypto up to?
Numerical, on-chain, and fundamental data clearly revealed why RAIN crypto hiked when the market was down.
First of all, the token built on the Arbitrum One (ARB) chain scooped a listing on the Kraken exchange. This meant more liquidity for trading, and it became more eligible. The move also meant more participants who could influence trading activity.
Additionally, Arbiscan’s data revealed the movement of tens of millions of RAIN tokens. There was a spike in transactions averaging between 10 million and 1 billion tokens.
This meant that whales were scooping up RAIN tokens while others were taking their profits. In fact, whales bought 165 million tokens in just two days.
This meant that supply was tightening with the individual acquisition of RAIN tokens. However, another force seemed to be contributing to the reduction in supply – The token burns. When supply reduces and meets demand like now, assets tend to rise.
In fact, data from the protocol showed that about 69.46 million RAIN were burned. However, compared to the previous day’s burn, this figure fell by more than 1%.
Additionally, the TVL rose by 5.21%, reaching about $4 million.
The total trading volume also grew to $18.83 million. Users were stagnant at 28k, while transactions were at 23.26k.
Market structure break on the charts
On the charts, RAIN was trading above two areas of volume gaps and imbalances. Hence, volume drove the rally that resulted in the breakout past the descending trendline.
Buy orders at $0.009132; two-week consolidation fueled this market structure shift on the hourly chart. But in this, the zone between $0.008166 and $0.008768 was where institutions loaded. It was evident from the huge volume gaps and imbalances.
At the time of writing, the altcoin appeared to be losing upward momentum. Even so, the sellers have so far failed to take the price lower than 50% of the day’s whole move.
For now, the battle between bulls and bears continues despite the Trend Strength Index (TSI) showing the trend was intact. The hourly timeframe was too short for the TSI.
Looming sell pressure from token unlocks
Thus, the question is whether sell pressure from the unlock will spoil the 18% rally. On 10 February, the protocol unlocked $338 million RAIN into the circulating supply.
This dilutes the efforts made through token burns and induces sell pressure. It remains undecided if RAIN’s bullish factors could absorb this pressure.
Hence, the token might be at risk of a fall due to the unlock or a pullback of the move.
Final Thoughts
- RAIN rallied by 18%, before a bout of correction, after its exchange listing, TVL growth, whale accumulation.
- RAIN’s bulls face pullback and unlock test to sustain the price action.
