Buying BTC is Not as Good as Buying Nasdaq, and This Statement Has an Expiration Date

marsbitPublicado a 2026-05-14Actualizado a 2026-05-14

Resumen

The article, titled "Investing in Bitcoin Has an Expiration Date", discusses the recent narrative on social media that investing in U.S. tech stocks (like the Nasdaq 100) has been far superior to investing in Bitcoin. This sentiment is fueled by performance comparisons showing the Nasdaq 100 significantly outperforming Bitcoin over a specific five-year window starting in late 2021. However, the author argues that such comparisons are highly sensitive to the chosen timeframe. By shifting the starting point to other key market moments—like the COVID-19 bottom (March 2020), the FTX collapse bottom (November 2022), or the pre-Bitcoin ETF approval period (January 2024)—Bitcoin's returns often match or dramatically exceed those of the Nasdaq 100. The popular Reddit chart essentially cherry-picks a period that started near a Bitcoin cycle high and just before the massive AI-driven rally in tech stocks. The core difference lies in their asset structures. The Nasdaq 100, backed by corporate earnings, exhibits a steadier long-term upward trend. Bitcoin is a highly cyclical asset with extreme volatility, where returns are drastically different depending on where in its bull/bear cycle an investment is made. The article notes Bitcoin often acts like a leveraged version of the S&P 500, magnifying both gains and losses. Currently, Bitcoin is in a "cyclically undervalued zone," having corrected ~37% from its October 2025 peak while the Nasdaq hits new highs. Historically, peak narratives...

Author: Curry, TechFlow

Respected U.S. stock traders have been living quite comfortably over the past half year.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have taken turns hitting record highs, the story of AI capital expenditure keeps getting bigger, and net account values have risen accordingly. In contrast, Bitcoin has retreated from about $126,000 in October last year to around $80,000, a drop of 37%. The feeling for coin holders can probably be summed up in two words:

Agony.

This emotional gap is fermenting into a new narrative on social media: Buying U.S. tech stocks is better than buying Bitcoin, and has been for most of the time.

In today's crypto subreddit, a post even gave this sentiment a concrete form. A user posted a comparison chart showing that over the past 5 years, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 132.8%, while Bitcoin rose by only 43.8%.

It is important to note that this chart uses the European DD/MM/YYYY date format. The actual window is from May 12, 2021, to May 12, 2026, and it is based on Euro-denominated ETFs.

The US dollar has appreciated about 18% against the Euro since 2021, further amplifying the gains of USD assets from a Euro perspective due to exchange rate effects. Converted to USD spot prices, the Nasdaq 100's gain over the same period is about 121%, and Bitcoin's is about 43%. The gap remains significant.

The poster's own summary is even more poignant: "What exactly is going on? I guess the answer is that AI has changed everything."

Bloomberg published a similar report in February this year with an even more merciless title: "Bitcoin's Five-Year Return Lags S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Gold."

Investments Have an Expiration Date

The starting point for the 5-year window in the above chart is December 2021.

At that time, Bitcoin had just retreated from its cycle high of $69,000 to around $48,000, while the Nasdaq 100 was around 16,300 points, and the AI narrative had not yet taken off. This means Bitcoin's starting line was set on a high plateau at the end of a bull market, while Nasdaq's starting line was set on the eve of the AI super rally.

Emotionally, it's understandable to promote that U.S. stocks are better than BTC; but is it really the case when looking at longer-term data? If we shift the starting point forward or backward by a few months or years, the winning relationship flips dramatically.

We conducted a simple small analysis. For the following five time windows, with the end point uniformly set as May 2026 (BTC ~$80,000, Nasdaq 100 ~29,000 points), the starting points correspond to five key nodes in crypto and macro markets:

COVID-19 Bottom (March 2020) → Now:

Bitcoin rose from ~$5,800 to $80,000, a gain of ~1,279%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~7,000 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~314%. Bitcoin's return was over 4 times that of Nasdaq.

FTX Collapse Bottom (November 2022) → Now:

Bitcoin rose from ~$16,000 to $80,000, a gain of ~400%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~11,500 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~152%. Bitcoin's return was still 2.6 times that of Nasdaq.

On the Eve of Bitcoin ETF Approval (January 2024) → Now:

Bitcoin rose from ~$44,000 to $80,000, a gain of ~82%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~16,800 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~73%. They were basically tied, with Bitcoin slightly ahead.

This Tech Stock Cycle (May 2021) → Now:

Bitcoin rose from ~$48,000 to $80,000, a gain of ~67%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~16,300 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~78%. Nasdaq led.

Bitcoin's All-Time High (October 2025) → Now:

Bitcoin fell from ~$126,000 to $80,000, a loss of ~37%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~22,000 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~32%. Nasdaq led significantly, and the directions were completely opposite.

Therefore, the conclusion is: Out of five windows, Bitcoin wins in three, Nasdaq wins in two. The Reddit post happened to select one of the windows where Nasdaq has the biggest advantage.

Cyclical Asset vs. Trend Asset

The difference in sensitivity to the starting point between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 stems from the two assets' fundamentally different volatility structures.

The Nasdaq 100 is composed of 500 large non-financial companies, backed by cash flows and earnings, exhibiting a long-term upward trend. Even after the 33% pullback in 2022, its recovery was relatively steady.

Choosing any non-extreme starting point results in long-term returns falling within a relatively stable range.

Bitcoin is a typical cyclical asset. Historically, in each bull-bear cycle, the drawdown from peak to trough has ranged between 75% and 85% (as seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022). The pullback from October 2025 to early 2026 also reached about 50%.

This intense volatility means that where the starting point falls within the cycle almost determines the final return figure.

A Nasdaq.com analysis put it more bluntly: Bitcoin is essentially a leveraged version of the S&P 500.

In 2024, the S&P rose 24%, Bitcoin rose 135%; in 2023, the S&P rose 26%, Bitcoin rose 147%; in 2022, the S&P fell 19%, Bitcoin fell 65%. Same direction, magnitude amplified 3 to 5 times.

This means that choosing a starting point that coincides exactly with a Bitcoin cycle peak for comparison, and concluding that "stocks completely beat Bitcoin," is almost statistically inevitable. The opposite is also true.

The Current BTC is Possibly in a "Cyclical Undervaluation Zone"

Setting aside the starting point game, the current market structure itself warrants attention.

After peaking in October 2025, Bitcoin underwent a typical cyclical correction. It fell to around $65,000 in February 2026, then rebounded to around $80,000, still down about 37% from its high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 repeatedly hit new highs driven by continued expansion in AI capital expenditure.

This divergence is not uncommon in history. In 2019, while Bitcoin rallied from $3,000 to $12,000, it was almost decoupled from the S&P 500. In 2022, both plummeted in sync, with correlation once soaring to 0.92. The correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks is dynamic and cyclical, not a fixed positive correlation.

Galaxy Digital's Head of Research, Alex Thorn, proposed an interesting perspective in December 2025:

If measured in terms of 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's nominal high of $126,000 never actually broke through $100,000. Cumulative inflation from 2020 to 2025 is about 24%, which introduces a systematic bias in cross-year nominal price comparisons.

At a time when Bitcoin is down 37% from its all-time high while U.S. stock indices are simultaneously hitting record highs, the narrative of "stocks outperforming Bitcoin" naturally dominates social media.

However, in the past, every time this narrative was loudest, it usually coincided with Bitcoin nearing the bottom of its cycle. After the FTX collapse in late 2022, similar "Bitcoin is dead" rhetoric was also rampant, yet Bitcoin subsequently rose from $16,000 to $126,000 over the next 18 months.

Hindsight is easy; placing bets ahead of time is hard. Arguing about which asset has higher returns has little practical meaning at the micro level. Any conclusion based on a single time window that "A is forever superior to B" cannot withstand the test of shifting the starting point.

Each era has its champion. The difficult part across all eras is timing the market and taking profits.

Preguntas relacionadas

QBased on the article, why does the claim 'Buying Nasdaq is better than buying BTC' have a 'shelf life'?

ABecause the comparison outcome heavily depends on the selected starting point due to Bitcoin's extreme cyclical volatility and Nasdaq's steadier trend. Choosing a starting point near a Bitcoin cycle peak makes Nasdaq look better, while starting near a Bitcoin cycle low makes Bitcoin's returns vastly superior. The conclusion is not universally true across all timeframes.

QHow did Bitcoin's performance compare to Nasdaq 100 from the COVID-19 market bottom in March 2020 to May 2026, according to the article's data?

AFrom March 2020 to May 2026, Bitcoin rose from approximately $5,800 to $80,000, a gain of about 1,279%. The Nasdaq 100 rose from about 7,000 points to 29,000 points, a gain of about 314%. Bitcoin's return was over 4 times that of the Nasdaq 100.

QWhat is the fundamental difference in the 'volatility structure' between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 as explained in the article?

AThe Nasdaq 100, backed by company cash flows and earnings, exhibits a long-term upward trend with relatively stable returns from most non-extreme starting points. Bitcoin is a typical cyclical asset with extreme volatility, experiencing drawdowns of 75-85% in past bear markets. Its final return is almost entirely determined by the cycle phase at the starting point.

QAccording to the article, what is one reason the current narrative of 'stocks outperforming Bitcoin' is so prevalent in mid-2026?

AIn mid-2026, Bitcoin is down about 37% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, trading around $80,000. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is hitting new all-time highs driven by AI capital expenditure stories. This significant performance divergence makes the 'stocks are better' narrative naturally dominate social media.

QWhat historical pattern does the article suggest often occurs when the 'Bitcoin is dead' or 'stocks outperform Bitcoin' narrative is loudest?

AThe article suggests that in the past, when narratives claiming 'Bitcoin is dead' or that stocks are definitively better than Bitcoin were at their loudest (e.g., after the FTX crash in late 2022), it often coincided with Bitcoin being near a cyclical bottom region. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced massive rallies, such as rising from $16,000 to $126,000 in the 18 months following the FTX collapse.

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ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN): Un Análisis Integral Introducción al ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) es un proyecto basado en blockchain que opera en la red Solana, cuyo objetivo es combinar las características de los metales preciosos tradicionales con la innovación de las tecnologías descentralizadas. Aunque comparte un nombre con Bitcoin, a menudo referido como “oro digital” debido a su percepción como un refugio de valor, ORO DIGITAL es un token separado diseñado para crear un ecosistema único dentro del paisaje Web3. Su meta es posicionarse como un activo digital alternativo viable, aunque los detalles sobre sus aplicaciones y funcionalidades aún están en desarrollo. ¿Qué es ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN)? ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) es un token de criptomoneda diseñado explícitamente para su uso en la blockchain de Solana. A diferencia de Bitcoin, que proporciona un papel de almacenamiento de valor ampliamente reconocido, este token parece centrarse en aplicaciones y características más amplias. Aspectos notables incluyen: Infraestructura Blockchain: El token está construido sobre la blockchain de Solana, conocida por su capacidad para manejar transacciones de alta velocidad y bajo costo. Dinámicas de Suministro: ORO DIGITAL tiene un suministro máximo limitado a 100 cuatrillones de tokens (100P $BITCOIN), aunque los detalles sobre su suministro circulante no se han divulgado actualmente. Utilidad: Si bien las funcionalidades precisas no están delineadas explícitamente, hay indicios de que el token podría ser utilizado para diversas aplicaciones, potencialmente involucrando aplicaciones descentralizadas (dApps) o estrategias de tokenización de activos. ¿Quién es el Creador de ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN)? En la actualidad, la identidad de los creadores y el equipo de desarrollo detrás de ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) sigue siendo desconocida. Esta situación es típica entre muchos proyectos innovadores dentro del espacio blockchain, particularmente aquellos alineados con las finanzas descentralizadas y fenómenos de monedas meme. Si bien tal anonimato puede fomentar una cultura impulsada por la comunidad, intensifica las preocupaciones sobre la gobernanza y la responsabilidad. ¿Quiénes son los Inversores de ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN)? La información disponible indica que ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) no tiene patrocinadores institucionales conocidos ni inversiones destacadas de capital de riesgo. El proyecto parece operar en un modelo de peer-to-peer centrado en el apoyo y la adopción de la comunidad en lugar de rutas de financiamiento tradicionales. Su actividad y liquidez se sitúan principalmente en intercambios descentralizados (DEX), como PumpSwap, en lugar de plataformas de trading centralizadas establecidas, lo que resalta aún más su enfoque de base. Cómo Funciona ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) Los mecanismos operativos de ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) pueden elaborarse en función de su diseño blockchain y atributos de red: Mecanismo de Consenso: Al aprovechar el único proof-of-history (PoH) de Solana combinado con un modelo de proof-of-stake (PoS), el proyecto asegura una validación de transacciones eficiente que contribuye al alto rendimiento de la red. Tokenómica: Si bien los mecanismos deflacionarios específicos no se han detallado extensamente, el vasto suministro máximo de tokens implica que podría atender microtransacciones o casos de uso nicho que aún están por definirse. Interoperabilidad: Existe el potencial de integración con el ecosistema más amplio de Solana, incluyendo varias plataformas de finanzas descentralizadas (DeFi). Sin embargo, los detalles sobre integraciones específicas permanecen no especificados. Cronología de Eventos Clave Aquí hay una cronología que destaca hitos significativos relacionados con ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN): 2023: El despliegue inicial del token ocurre en la blockchain de Solana, marcado por su dirección de contrato. 2024: ORO DIGITAL gana visibilidad al estar disponible para trading en intercambios descentralizados como PumpSwap, permitiendo a los usuarios comerciar contra SOL. 2025: El proyecto presencia actividad de trading esporádica y potencial interés en compromisos liderados por la comunidad, aunque no se han documentado asociaciones notables o avances técnicos hasta el momento. Análisis Crítico Fortalezas Escalabilidad: La infraestructura subyacente de Solana soporta altos volúmenes de transacciones, lo que podría mejorar la utilidad de $BITCOIN en varios escenarios de transacción. Accesibilidad: El potencial bajo precio de trading por token podría atraer a inversores minoristas, facilitando una participación más amplia debido a oportunidades de propiedad fraccionada. Riesgos Falta de Transparencia: La ausencia de patrocinadores, desarrolladores o un proceso de auditoría conocidos públicamente puede generar escepticismo sobre la sostenibilidad y confiabilidad del proyecto. Volatilidad del Mercado: La actividad de trading depende en gran medida del comportamiento especulativo, lo que puede resultar en una volatilidad de precios significativa y en incertidumbre para los inversores. Conclusión ORO DIGITAL ($BITCOIN) surge como un proyecto intrigante pero ambiguo dentro del ecosistema de Solana en rápida evolución. Si bien intenta aprovechar la narrativa del “oro digital”, su alejamiento del papel establecido de Bitcoin como refugio de valor subraya la necesidad de una diferenciación más clara de su utilidad y estructura de gobernanza previstas. La aceptación y adopción futura dependerán probablemente de abordar la actual opacidad y de definir sus estrategias operativas y económicas de manera más explícita. Nota: Este informe abarca información sintetizada disponible hasta octubre de 2023, y pueden haber ocurrido desarrollos más allá del período de investigación.

83 Vistas totalesPublicado en 2025.05.13Actualizado en 2025.05.13

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