Author: Curry, TechFlow
Respected U.S. stock traders have been living quite comfortably over the past half year.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have taken turns hitting record highs, the story of AI capital expenditure keeps getting bigger, and net account values have risen accordingly. In contrast, Bitcoin has retreated from about $126,000 in October last year to around $80,000, a drop of 37%. The feeling for coin holders can probably be summed up in two words:
Agony.
This emotional gap is fermenting into a new narrative on social media: Buying U.S. tech stocks is better than buying Bitcoin, and has been for most of the time.
In today's crypto subreddit, a post even gave this sentiment a concrete form. A user posted a comparison chart showing that over the past 5 years, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 132.8%, while Bitcoin rose by only 43.8%.
It is important to note that this chart uses the European DD/MM/YYYY date format. The actual window is from May 12, 2021, to May 12, 2026, and it is based on Euro-denominated ETFs.
The US dollar has appreciated about 18% against the Euro since 2021, further amplifying the gains of USD assets from a Euro perspective due to exchange rate effects. Converted to USD spot prices, the Nasdaq 100's gain over the same period is about 121%, and Bitcoin's is about 43%. The gap remains significant.
The poster's own summary is even more poignant: "What exactly is going on? I guess the answer is that AI has changed everything."
Bloomberg published a similar report in February this year with an even more merciless title: "Bitcoin's Five-Year Return Lags S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Gold."
Investments Have an Expiration Date
The starting point for the 5-year window in the above chart is December 2021.
At that time, Bitcoin had just retreated from its cycle high of $69,000 to around $48,000, while the Nasdaq 100 was around 16,300 points, and the AI narrative had not yet taken off. This means Bitcoin's starting line was set on a high plateau at the end of a bull market, while Nasdaq's starting line was set on the eve of the AI super rally.
Emotionally, it's understandable to promote that U.S. stocks are better than BTC; but is it really the case when looking at longer-term data? If we shift the starting point forward or backward by a few months or years, the winning relationship flips dramatically.
We conducted a simple small analysis. For the following five time windows, with the end point uniformly set as May 2026 (BTC ~$80,000, Nasdaq 100 ~29,000 points), the starting points correspond to five key nodes in crypto and macro markets:
COVID-19 Bottom (March 2020) → Now:
Bitcoin rose from ~$5,800 to $80,000, a gain of ~1,279%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~7,000 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~314%. Bitcoin's return was over 4 times that of Nasdaq.
FTX Collapse Bottom (November 2022) → Now:
Bitcoin rose from ~$16,000 to $80,000, a gain of ~400%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~11,500 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~152%. Bitcoin's return was still 2.6 times that of Nasdaq.
On the Eve of Bitcoin ETF Approval (January 2024) → Now:
Bitcoin rose from ~$44,000 to $80,000, a gain of ~82%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~16,800 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~73%. They were basically tied, with Bitcoin slightly ahead.
This Tech Stock Cycle (May 2021) → Now:
Bitcoin rose from ~$48,000 to $80,000, a gain of ~67%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~16,300 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~78%. Nasdaq led.
Bitcoin's All-Time High (October 2025) → Now:
Bitcoin fell from ~$126,000 to $80,000, a loss of ~37%. Nasdaq 100 rose from ~22,000 points to 29,000 points, a gain of ~32%. Nasdaq led significantly, and the directions were completely opposite.
Therefore, the conclusion is: Out of five windows, Bitcoin wins in three, Nasdaq wins in two. The Reddit post happened to select one of the windows where Nasdaq has the biggest advantage.
Cyclical Asset vs. Trend Asset
The difference in sensitivity to the starting point between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 stems from the two assets' fundamentally different volatility structures.
The Nasdaq 100 is composed of 500 large non-financial companies, backed by cash flows and earnings, exhibiting a long-term upward trend. Even after the 33% pullback in 2022, its recovery was relatively steady.
Choosing any non-extreme starting point results in long-term returns falling within a relatively stable range.
Bitcoin is a typical cyclical asset. Historically, in each bull-bear cycle, the drawdown from peak to trough has ranged between 75% and 85% (as seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022). The pullback from October 2025 to early 2026 also reached about 50%.
This intense volatility means that where the starting point falls within the cycle almost determines the final return figure.
A Nasdaq.com analysis put it more bluntly: Bitcoin is essentially a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
In 2024, the S&P rose 24%, Bitcoin rose 135%; in 2023, the S&P rose 26%, Bitcoin rose 147%; in 2022, the S&P fell 19%, Bitcoin fell 65%. Same direction, magnitude amplified 3 to 5 times.
This means that choosing a starting point that coincides exactly with a Bitcoin cycle peak for comparison, and concluding that "stocks completely beat Bitcoin," is almost statistically inevitable. The opposite is also true.
The Current BTC is Possibly in a "Cyclical Undervaluation Zone"
Setting aside the starting point game, the current market structure itself warrants attention.
After peaking in October 2025, Bitcoin underwent a typical cyclical correction. It fell to around $65,000 in February 2026, then rebounded to around $80,000, still down about 37% from its high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 repeatedly hit new highs driven by continued expansion in AI capital expenditure.
This divergence is not uncommon in history. In 2019, while Bitcoin rallied from $3,000 to $12,000, it was almost decoupled from the S&P 500. In 2022, both plummeted in sync, with correlation once soaring to 0.92. The correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks is dynamic and cyclical, not a fixed positive correlation.
Galaxy Digital's Head of Research, Alex Thorn, proposed an interesting perspective in December 2025:
If measured in terms of 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's nominal high of $126,000 never actually broke through $100,000. Cumulative inflation from 2020 to 2025 is about 24%, which introduces a systematic bias in cross-year nominal price comparisons.
At a time when Bitcoin is down 37% from its all-time high while U.S. stock indices are simultaneously hitting record highs, the narrative of "stocks outperforming Bitcoin" naturally dominates social media.
However, in the past, every time this narrative was loudest, it usually coincided with Bitcoin nearing the bottom of its cycle. After the FTX collapse in late 2022, similar "Bitcoin is dead" rhetoric was also rampant, yet Bitcoin subsequently rose from $16,000 to $126,000 over the next 18 months.
Hindsight is easy; placing bets ahead of time is hard. Arguing about which asset has higher returns has little practical meaning at the micro level. Any conclusion based on a single time window that "A is forever superior to B" cannot withstand the test of shifting the starting point.
Each era has its champion. The difficult part across all eras is timing the market and taking profits.
