The Bitcoin price has extended its steep decline on Thursday, slipping below the $67,000 level and deepening a sell‐off that has been unfolding since October of last year.
With the latest move, the market’s leading crypto has now retraced close to 50% from the all‐time highs it reached during that period, intensifying concerns that the market may not yet have found a durable bottom.
Against this backdrop, market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to historical price behavior that suggests further downside risk in the near term.
Analyst Flags 200‐Week SMA As Next Target
In a recent post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Martinez noted that the Bitcoin price has once again closed below its 100‐week simple moving average (SMA), a development that has carried significant implications in previous market cycles.
According to Martinez’s analysis, every instance since 2015 in which BTC has lost the 100‐week SMA has followed a similar pattern. Rather than quickly reclaiming that level, the Bitcoin price has typically continued lower toward the 200‐week SMA.
Those transitions have consistently resulted in sharp corrections, generally ranging between 45% and 58%, and have tended to play out over a period of roughly 30 to 50 days.
Historical examples highlight this recurring behavior. In December 2014, Bitcoin fell about 55% after losing the 100‐week moving average, reaching the 200‐week level in approximately 35 days.
A similar pattern appeared in November 2018, when a weekly close below the 100‐week SMA was followed by a 45% decline that unfolded over roughly 28 days. During the March 2020 COVID‐19 drop, the move from the 100‐week to the 200‐week average happened far more rapidly, with the Bitcoin price dropping 47% in one week.
More recently, in May 2022, a breakdown below the 100‐week SMA preceded a 58% sell‐off that took close to 49 days to fully materialize. Based on these precedents, Martinez argues that the latest weekly close below the 100‐week SMA increases the likelihood of another substantial correction.
If historical patterns hold, he suggests the Bitcoin price could face a drawdown of nearly 50% toward the 200‐week MA. That would imply a potential downside range between roughly $56,000 and $50,000, a move that could occur by March or April, according to the analyst.
What’s Behind The Bitcoin Price Drop?
Beyond technical factors, institutional flows have also emerged as a key source of pressure. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that the broader downturn has been exacerbated by large and sustained withdrawals from institutional investment vehicles.
According to their assessment, crypto‐focused exchange‐traded funds (ETFs) have experienced billions of dollars in outflows each month since the downturn that began in October 2025.
They added that US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone recorded outflows exceeding $3 billion in January, following withdrawals of approximately $2 billion in December and $7 billion in November.
In Deutsche Bank’s view, the persistent selling reflects waning interest from traditional investors and a growing sense of pessimism toward the crypto asset class.
For now, the market is watching closely to see whether Bitcoin prices can stabilize in the short term or whether further losses lie ahead before any meaningful recovery can take shape later this year.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
