Beware of the Capital Bubble in Unitree's IPO

Publicado a 2026-08-13Actualizado a 2026-08-13

Resumen

The global market for humanoid robots is vast enough, and the race is long enough. The competition among Unitree, Zhiyuan, and Ubtech has just begun.

The results of Unitree Technology's new share subscription are out, causing a stir in the investment community, with screens filled with discussions about "wealth creation myths." However, amidst the excitement, do not overlook Unitree Technology's ultra-high P/E ratio of 219 times, which also signals a market bubble.

On the evening of August 11, the lottery draw results for Unitree Technology's online subscription were announced, with a total of 19,414 winning numbers. Each winning number is entitled to subscribe to 500 shares of Unitree Technology's A-shares.

Crowned as the "first A-share humanoid robotics company," the scarcity and high return expectations of Unitree Technology's IPO ignited strong subscription enthusiasm among retail investors. Ultimately, Unitree Technology's online issuance winning rate was 0.01809759%, setting a new historical low for the STAR Market, making it the hardest new share to win on the STAR Market to date.

Compared to Changxin Technology, which was listed a few days earlier with a winning rate of 0.47%, Unitree Technology's rate was only 0.018%, highlighting the difficulty of securing new shares.

Unitree Technology's exceptionally high P/E ratio may be related to the fact that it is one of the few profitable humanoid robotics companies in China.

According to the prospectus, in 2025, Unitree's revenue was 16.9 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit of 5.9 billion yuan. Calculated based on the issuance ratio, the initial market capitalization reached at least 60.9 billion yuan, with an issuance P/E ratio of 219.23 times, significantly higher than the industry average P/E ratio of 38.56 times.

The P/E ratio is one of the most commonly used valuation metrics in stock investment, calculated as the company's total market capitalization divided by its net profit. It measures the price investors are willing to pay for the company's earnings. Simply put, it reflects the "investment return rate" for shareholders, indicating how many years it would take for investors to recoup their investment costs based on the company's current profit level.

Generally, a P/E ratio greater than 30 falls into the high P/E range, often seen in high-growth industries like technology and healthcare, indicating that the market is willing to pay a premium for future growth.

However, Unitree Technology's P/E ratio is as high as 219 times, which may also imply overvaluation and the risk of a bubble.

It is worth noting that new shares on the STAR Market have no price fluctuation limits for the first five trading days, leading to significant stock price volatility risks. Investors who did not win the subscription should carefully consider Unitree Technology's secondary market performance.

This is not an unfounded concern. Unitree Technology's shortcomings in embodied intelligence are widely recognized within the industry.

On the domestic embodied intelligence landscape, Unitree Technology is a steadfast proponent of the "body-first" approach, with robots capable of martial arts and dancing, akin to a physical education student. For a long time, Unitree has lagged behind in "brain" development, with far less accumulation in embodied "brain" technology compared to peers like Zhiyuan, Ubtech, and Galaxy General.

"Whoever can develop the robot's large model will be the world's most powerful AI and robotics company," Wang Xingxing has repeatedly emphasized the importance of embodied models. However, in the prospectus, Unitree also admitted its strategic bias of "emphasizing the body over the brain." The prospectus stated that Unitree's early R&D focused on the body and cerebellum (motion control and limb coordination), with less investment in the brain (embodied large models) and no large-scale real-world data collection or factory deployment training.

Today, the body advantage Unitree prides itself on is gradually being eroded by companies like Zhiyuan.

Earlier this year, data from global market research firm Omdia showed that Zhiyuan shipped 5,168 units in 2025, capturing 39% of the global market share, with Unitree Technology following closely behind with a 32% shipment share, ranking second. Unitree promptly refuted this, stating: the company's humanoid robot shipments in 2025 exceeded 5,500 units, with mass production exceeding 6,500 units.

Half a year ago, the two were evenly matched, but now the gap is gradually widening.

The latest statistics show that in the first half of this year, global humanoid robot shipments totaled approximately 19,100 units, with Zhiyuan Robotics shipping 8,400 units, accounting for 44% globally and ranking first. Unitree Technology shipped 5,900 units, accounting for 31% globally.

To address this, Unitree Technology is striving to make up for its shortcomings. This IPO is expected to raise a total of 6.099 billion yuan, half of which will be invested in the R&D of embodied robot models.

Meanwhile, DeepSeek has become a significant shareholder in Unitree Technology's strategic placement list. Wang Xingxing responded during the roadshow that Unitree Technology and DeepSeek are seeking cooperation in general artificial intelligence R&D, high-performance general-purpose robots, and AI large models.

Leveraging the IPO's funding pool and attention, Unitree still has the opportunity to catch up and reclaim the top position in the industry.

On August 11, Goldman Sachs, after surveying 14 embodied intelligence companies, concluded that humanoid robots are still in the transition phase from technology verification to commercialization, with large-scale deployment likely to gradually unfold between 2027 and 2029. Global humanoid robot shipments are expected to reach 76,000 units in 2027 and rise to 502,000 units by 2032.

From this perspective, the global humanoid robot market is sufficiently large, and the race is long enough. The competition among Unitree, Zhiyuan, Ubtech, and others has just begun.

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