Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: Continued Rally
Q2 opening, second consecutive gain.
The Dow rose 224 points (+0.48%) to close at 46,565, the S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 6,575, the Nasdaq increased 1.16% to 21,840, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index advanced 0.64% to 2,512. The VIX fear index further retreated to 24.54, having contracted nearly 6 points from its peak a week ago.
The underlying logic of this rally is no longer just "ceasefire news," but rather Trump providing a specific timeline for the first time.
At a White House press conference, he told reporters that US troops would leave Iran "within two to three weeks," with the key phrasing being his addition: "with or without a deal." This marks the first time since the 35-day war began that Washington has decoupled withdrawal from being a conditional variable of "negotiated agreement" to an independent, time-driven commitment. The market heard: this war is entering a countdown, regardless of whether Tehran signs.
Simultaneously, Trump posted on Truth Social claiming that "the Iranian President has requested a ceasefire," but immediately attached a precondition: the Strait of Hormuz must be "open, free, and unobstructed," otherwise the US would not consider it. The coexistence of these two posts constituted the core tension of the day's market sentiment, blending both an expectation of an endgame and an anchoring of conditions.
Sector Rotation: Beneficiaries and Losers Swap Places
The most anomalous scene yesterday occurred in the energy sector. The S&P 500 energy sector plummeted over 4% in a single day, becoming the biggest loser—marking the first clear signal of a "ceasefire expectation shorting energy stocks" since the war began. The logical loop is: war ends → Hormuz reopens → oil supply increases → oil prices fall → energy company profits pressured. WTI fell 2.4% yesterday to around $99/barrel, officially breaking below the $100 mark; Brent similarly retreated to around $101.
Tech stocks took over leading the gains. Intel was the most notable individual stock yesterday, announcing a $142 billion buyback of the majority stake in its Irish Fab 34 wafer fab—a signal interpreted by the industry as a "CPU revival" and a return to financial discipline, sending its stock soaring. The Nasdaq overall maintained strength for the second consecutive day, with the Technology ETF (XLK) continuing to benefit from the revived "rate cut narrative" logic alongside rising ceasefire expectations.
Two Surprise Posts: SpaceX and OpenAI
Yesterday also saw two heavyweight non-war related messages worth noting separately.
Bloomberg率先 reported that SpaceX has secretly filed IPO documents with the US SEC. This is one of the most anticipated IPOs in the crypto and tech markets for years, with specific valuation and issuance timing yet to be disclosed. EchoStar holds about 3% of SpaceX shares, and its stock jumped noticeably on the news.
OpenAI announced the completion of a $122 billion funding round, valuing the company at $852 billion, surpassing previous forecast figures. This round is the largest single fundraising amount for a tech company in history, with funds continuing to pour into AI infrastructure construction. Meanwhile, Oracle announced layoffs of thousands, contrasting the two messages: AI money is still pouring in wildly, but it's entering a stage where "giants eat more, and other companies can't squeeze in."
Oil and Gold
Oil: Breaks Below $100, But Don't Celebrate Yet
WTI settled around $99/barrel yesterday, Brent around $101. This is the first time WTI has closed below the $100 psychological barrier since the war erupted. Superficially, this is a significant psychological breakthrough—the market is beginning to price in the expectation that "the war will end within weeks."
But one detail is worth noting: oil prices never truly returned to pre-war levels. Before the war erupted (late February), WTI was around $57. Even after falling to $99, it's still about 74% higher than pre-war levels. Even if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the coming weeks, the recovery of oil market supply will take time: damaged Middle Eastern facilities need repair, rebuilt operator confidence takes time, and shipping routes detouring via the Cape of Good Hope are still operational and will take time to cancel. IEA Executive Director Birol warned yesterday that even if a ceasefire arrives, full normalization of the energy market "could take months."
Gold: Fading Inflation Expectations Ease Pressure on Gold, But Structural Rebound Just Beginning
Gold surged 2.25% yesterday to around $4,783/ounce, its strongest single-day gain this month.
The logic is clear: oil prices fall → inflation expectations cool → Fed rate hike pressure eases → expectations for lower real rates rise → appeal of non-yielding asset gold increases. This chain is perfectly symmetrical to the one that suppressed gold throughout March, just in direction.
From a price perspective, gold has rebounded over 15% from its mid-March correction low (around $4,100) but remains about 15% away from its late January all-time high of $5,600. This space is the core trading range for gold as ceasefire expectations are gradually realized.
Cryptocurrency
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin rose modestly with the broader market yesterday, fluctuating between $67,800 and $68,500, moving in sync with overall market sentiment but with restrained amplitude.
The real protagonist in crypto yesterday was a warning unexpectedly related to the war narrative: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement designating Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and 18 other US tech giants as "legitimate targets," citing their provision of technical support for US-Israeli military operations.
The crypto implication of this message is: if tech infrastructure becomes a target, the risk of potential disruption to computing power supply chains and global cloud services rises—and Bitcoin network's decentralized特性恰恰在这个叙事框架里找到了新的"存在意义". This logic hasn't been fully priced in yet, but it's worth keeping in long-term observation.
Morgan Stanley quietly launched a low-fee Bitcoin ETF yesterday, with fees significantly below the market average. This is another signal of traditional Wall Street asset management giants持续"靠近"比特币. During this window period while the market awaits the war's outcome, institutional product布局一直在悄悄推进.
Today's Focus: Market Aftershocks Post-Trump Speech, Countdown to April 6
Last night at 9 PM, Trump delivered a national televised address from the White House
Trump announced in his evening speech that Iranian President Pezeshkian has formally applied to the US for a ceasefire, representing Tehran's closest diplomatic gesture towards direct contact to date. The speech's content is being digested by the market; today's trading session will be the first window to price it in.
Key points to watch: first, whether Trump presented a new conditional framework; second, whether the Iranian IRGC issued a rebuttal statement; third, whether there are any changes to the actual transit status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Today's Economic Calendar
Today (April 2) has a relatively dense economic data schedule: ISM Manufacturing PMI (March), ADP Private Sector Employment Report (March). These two data points, combined with Friday's upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (March), will jointly outline the true severity of the US labor market impact under the war's shock.
February Non-Farm Payrolls saw a net loss of 92,000 jobs, one of the worst monthly figures since the pandemic. Whether the March data can rebound is a key signal determining the Fed's policy path—and an important part of ascertaining "how much this war has cost the US economy."
April 6 Deadline: The Final Window
Trump's set deadline for striking Iranian energy infrastructure is April 6, four days from now. Regardless of the speech's content, this date will be the main axis of market volatility for the next four days.
The current situation is: ceasefire negotiations have new public signals, but the Strait of Hormuz is still not normally passable, and the IRGC continues to project a confrontational stance. This war stands at a true crossroads, neither direction is purely good or bad news. Just for the market, the cost of one direction is much smaller than the other.
