Introduction: The bull market is back, but the real point for consideration is the change in the fund structure
The bull is back. Over the past week, global risk assets have rallied in sync, and the crypto market has returned to a track of upward movement on increasing volume. Most people's attention is focused on how much further BTC and ETH can rise, but as researchers, we are more concerned with a deeper change behind this round of market movement: the funds entering the crypto world this time are no longer just crypto-native speculative capital and retail investors, but a significant amount of compliant and traditional financial funds from around the globe. What they want to buy is also no longer just BTC and ETH, but stocks, gold, foreign exchange, Pre-IPO shares, RWAs—the entire spectrum of global assets.
This leads to the core thesis of this article: the role of $HTX is undergoing a fundamental change. It is the governance token of HTX DAO and the sole designated cooperation token of Huobi HTX, functioning to some extent as a platform token. In the past, its valuation was anchored to the trading volume of crypto spot and derivatives; in the future, it should be reinterpreted as an "Equity Token for Global Assets Entering the Crypto World." Holding $HTX means owning a share of the gateway through which global funds pass into the crypto world. To substantiate this thesis, this article will supplement the narrative with a complete quantitative analysis: the scale of global traditional finance, the current size of crypto, and—based on Huobi HTX's market share—even if only a small fraction of global funds flows in, combined with the incremental growth of the TradFi sector this year, what the market capitalization range of $HTX should be in five years.
I. Narrative Shift: The Valuation Logic is Completely Unlocked
First, let's clarify the concept. What is the valuation logic of an "exchange platform token"? Simply put: the market cap ceiling of a platform token = crypto trading volume × fee rate × revenue distribution ratio. Since $HTX, to a certain extent, functions as a platform token, it has long been compared alongside Binance's BNB, OKX's OKB, etc., within the same framework—whose crypto trading volume is larger, whose buyback strength is greater, whose platform token is more valuable. This framework was valid from 2020 to 2024 because the reality it reflected was that crypto exchange revenue came almost entirely from trading crypto assets.
But now this framework is becoming obsolete. When an exchange's tradable assets expand from BTC and ETH to perpetual contracts for stocks like Nvidia and Apple, to gold, silver, crude oil, the S&P 500 index, and further ahead to forex, Pre-IPO shares, and RWAs, its revenue base shifts from "crypto market trading volume" to "global financial market trading volume." The difference in scale between these two markets is orders of magnitude: the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market is approximately $2.3 trillion, while a single asset class globally can easily amount to tens or hundreds of trillions.
What does this mean? If $HTX is still viewed only as a "platform token," its valuation ceiling is locked within crypto trading volume. However, if $HTX is repriced as an "Equity Token for Global Assets Entering the Crypto World"—where for every dollar of global asset trading flow passing through Huobi HTX's gateway, a portion is converted into value for $HTX holders via the buyback-and-burn mechanism—then its valuation ceiling is directly blown open. This is not an appreciation logic; it's a paradigm shift.
II. The Ocean of Global Financial Assets and Crypto's "Drop of Water"
The premise for being bullish on $HTX is not how much crypto itself rises, but at what proportion global assets enter crypto. Let's first clearly see the denominator.
Table 1: Scale of Global Financial Assets and Crypto's Position (Data are approximate figures for public markets)
Placing these two numbers together yields a very intuitive conclusion: the total crypto market cap of about $2.3 trillion is merely 0.5% of global wealth and 1.9% of global stock market capitalization. In other words, if just 1% of global wealth enters the crypto ecosystem in any form, it would represent an incremental $4.5 trillion—nearly double the current total crypto market cap. This is not a pipe dream: institutional predictions for asset tokenization themselves fall within this range—Citi estimates the tokenized securities market size at about $4-$5 trillion by 2030, 21.co estimates about $10 trillion, and BCG estimates tokenized assets could reach $16 trillion. Even if only the lower end of these predictions materializes, it would represent a scale-level injection for the crypto industry.
And what Huobi HTX is doing is building the gateway for "how this 1% enters and where it goes to trade" right at its own doorstep. This is the reality to be discussed in the next section.
III. The Gateway is Already Built: The Explosion of the TradFi Sector is Not a Concept, it's Ongoing Turnover
No matter how compelling the narrative, it needs data support. And Huobi HTX's TradFi (Traditional Finance) sector is precisely the business segment with the strongest performance in 2026. According to Huobi HTX's official July monthly report, the TradFi zone added 56 new contract products that month, of which 51 were stock contracts, covering tech giants, AI chips, storage, commodities, and precious metals. Daily average trading volume at month-end hit a record high, increasing more than 10 times month-over-month compared to June's daily average, with cumulative volume reaching approximately $25 billion. It's important to note that this was achieved in a month when the overall crypto spot market was sluggish and industry-wide trading volumes generally shrank—traditional financial assets are becoming the new engine of platform growth.
More crucial is the customer acquisition and retention mechanism. On August 5th, Huobi HTX launched the second phase of the TradFi "Trade to Earn" campaign: featuring 28 high-liquidity perpetual contracts covering four major categories—stocks (NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, TSLA, etc.), indices (SPX500, QQQ), commodities (WTI Crude, Brent Crude), and precious metals (XAU, XAG, PAXG, XAUT). Users placing maker orders receive 110% fee rebates, and taker orders receive 105% rebates—this is "negative-fee trading": the more you trade, the more you earn. The first phase of the campaign generated over 63 million USDT in trading volume on designated pairs within 10 days; the second phase prize pool has been expanded directly to $80,000.
Please note the most critical link in this design: during the campaign, all fee income generated by users on all designated TradFi contracts will be used entirely to repurchase $HTX from the market, with the repurchased tokens incorporated into the quarterly burn mechanism for unified destruction. In other words, every bit of fee from users trading US stock contracts or gold contracts becomes buy-side pressure and burn volume for $HTX. For the first time, global asset trading volume is directly converted into $HTX's value capture in an institutionalized manner.
Looking ahead along this path: stock perpetuals are already live; indices, commodities, and precious metals are in place; next, logically, come forex, Pre-IPO shares, and RWAs. When global core assets can all be traded with stablecoin margin 24/7, without needing to open a brokerage account, wait for market open, or exchange currencies across borders, traditional funds entering the Crypto world will no longer need the ritual of "buying BTC first"—they will directly bring USD stablecoins and trade familiar assets within the on-chain infrastructure. And Huobi HTX is becoming that very gateway.
IV. Compliant & Traditional Funds: The Entry Tickets They Need, Huobi HTX is Processing Them One by One
Traditional financial funds have a characteristic that crypto-native funds do not: they are not short of money; they lack compliant entry points. Whether institutional capital can enter depends on three things—whether there are tradable assets, whether there are compliant licenses, and whether there is credible custody and proof of reserves. In the first half of 2026, Huobi HTX delivered on all three.
On the asset side, it's the TradFi sector mentioned above; on the trust side, Huobi HTX has already publicly disclosed Merkle Tree Proof of Reserves (PoR) for 46 consecutive months, with reserve ratios for major assets like BTC, ETH, TRX, USDs, $HTX, XRP, DOGE, SOL consistently maintained above 100%, strictly adhering to 1:1 reserves. This is one of the earliest and most persistently regularized reserve disclosures in the entire industry—for institutions, this is more convincing than any marketing. On the compliance side, after receiving a no-objection letter from Pakistan's Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (PVARA), Huobi HTX advanced its VASP license application and continued aligning with Dubai's VARA regulatory framework in the first half of the year. Dubai, Central Asia, South Asia—the pieces of the global licensing map are being assembled one by one.
Looking at these three things together, you'll see a complete layout: the assets traditional funds need (TradFi sector), the gateway they need (global licensing network), and the trust they need (46 months of PoR)—Huobi HTX has prepared them all. The platform's total trading volume approached $900 billion in the first half of the year; it once topped the global centralized exchange net capital inflow ranking in April; new registered users grew 15% month-over-month in July—capital is already voting with its feet. And Huobi HTX's market share itself is the best endorsement: CoinDesk's April 2026 Trading Platform Report shows Huobi HTX's spot market share has reached 3.79% (top four Chinese-language CEX), derivatives share at 1.98%, with monthly spot share increasing by 0.88 percentage points—growth rate ranking third globally. Market share is rising, growth is leading—this is precisely the starting point for the next section's analysis.
V. Value Capture Loop: The Larger the Global Asset Trading Volume, the Scarcer $HTX Becomes
The previous sections argued the value of the "gate." Now, let's argue the value for holders—how does the flow of global assets translate into value for $HTX holders? The answer is a closed loop that has been running for over two years and repeatedly verified: 50% of the platform's revenue is used for quarterly buyback and burn.
Look at the data: In Q1 2026, despite crypto market trading volume declining significantly by 27% quarter-over-quarter, HTX DAO still completed the burn of 10.83 trillion $HTX tokens, worth approximately $19.22 million. Since the burn mechanism launched in 2024, cumulative burns and donations have reached 110.32 trillion tokens, accounting for over 11% of the total supply, with an average annual deflation rate of about 5.5%. Please note the meaning of this 5.5%: among mainstream governance tokens, this is one of the few that has achieved a "transparent, large-scale, long-term publicly executed" burn strategy, with its annual deflation rate significantly leading most mainstream crypto assets. If this happens in a weak market, the burns in a bull market will only be more aggressive.
The demand side is also tightening. Since April 1st, $HTX has become the sole fee deduction token for the Huobi HTX exchange, deeply embedded in core trading scenarios; the $HTX staking function launched by HTX DAO offers up to 10% annualized returns plus governance rights; rewards for both phases of the TradFi Trade to Earn campaign are distributed entirely in $HTX. On one side, there is ongoing burn driven by revenue (supply contraction); on the other, there is demand expansion from three scenarios: fee deduction, staking, and rewards—both supply and demand sides tightening simultaneously is the source of $HTX's scarcity.
Now, let's string the entire loop together: Global assets (stocks, gold, forex, Pre-IPO, RWAs) are listed on the TradFi sector → Global compliant funds enter to trade → Platform fee revenue grows → 50% of revenue repurchases and burns $HTX → Circulating supply continuously contracts → Holder equity thickens. Within this loop, $HTX is essentially a call option on "global asset trading volume." Next, we'll calculate the strike space of this option with numbers.
VI. Five-Year Projection: How Much Global Capital Flows In, How Large Can $HTX Market Cap Become
This section is the conclusion of the entire article. We'll break down the projection into four steps: Step 1 determines the denominator (penetration rate of global wealth into crypto). Step 2 determines the share (Huobi HTX's proportion of global crypto trading volume). Step 3 determines the revenue (trading volume × fee rate). Step 4 determines the valuation (revenue × valuation multiple). Each step provides conservative, neutral, and optimistic tiers, laying assumptions on the table as much as possible so readers can verify them.
Step 1, Penetration Rate. The current total crypto market cap is about $2.3 trillion, representing 0.5% of global wealth (~$450 trillion). By 2030, if the penetration rate rises to 1% / 2% / 3%, the corresponding crypto total market cap would be approximately $4.5 / $9 / $13.5 trillion—this aligns with the forecast range for tokenized assets by Citi, 21.co, and BCG ($4-$16 trillion) and represents a "neutral value within institutional forecast ranges," not an aggressive assumption.
Step 2, Market Share. Huobi HTX's current spot share is 3.79%, derivatives share 1.98%, with a comprehensive share of about 2.5%-3%. Considering two plus factors—Huobi HTX is one of the few exchanges that has built the "global asset gateway" into a product matrix (TradFi sector leadership), and its monthly share growth rate ranks third globally—by 2030, the comprehensive share rises to 4% / 5.5% / 8% across three tiers.
Step 3, Trading Volume & Revenue. The annual turnover rate of the crypto market (spot + derivatives combined) is currently around 20x. As market cap grows and institutional participation increases, turnover rates typically decline; we project 20x / 16x / 12x accordingly. Huobi HTX's annual trading volume = Total crypto market cap × Turnover rate × Share. The comprehensive fee rate is set at 0.05% / 0.06% / 0.07% (negative-fee marketing campaigns have temporary dilution effects, but the overall fee structure for TradFi and derivatives remains stable). Step 4, Valuation. Referring to the valuation multiples of comparable exchange assets, P/S ratios are set at 3x / 5x / 8x—the conservative tier is close to traditional brokerage valuations, while the optimistic tier includes the narrative revaluation premium for "Equity Token + Global Asset Gateway."
Table 2: $HTX Market Cap Five-Year Projection (2030, Three Scenarios)
Note: This is a scenario analysis, not a prediction. The core logic is the transmission chain: "Global asset penetration rate × Huobi HTX share → Trading volume → Revenue → Valuation." Any assumption significantly below expectations would notably alter the outcome. However, even in the most conservative tier, the market cap scale of $HTX implies more than 3x upside from current levels.
This projection may seem to involve large numbers, but each step lies within ranges supportable by current data. Let's cross-verify: The neutral tier implies Huobi HTX's annual trading volume in 2030 would be about $7.9 trillion. If the TradFi sector accounts for 30% of that, that's approximately $2.4 trillion—while the global stock market's annual trading volume is on the order of $150-$200 trillion, and forex trading is about $2,000 trillion annually. Even $2.4 trillion for Huobi HTX's TradFi would only be about 1.5% of global stock market trading volume. In other words, the inflow of global assets needed to drive $HTX toward a hundred-billion-dollar market cap is barely a ripple in the ocean of global finance. What is truly scarce is not the capital, but the gateway—and that is precisely what Huobi HTX is building.
Let's also cross-check with the supply-side deflation effect: At the current 5.5% annual deflation rate, $HTX's circulating supply would contract by about 25% in five years. If full fee-based buybacks from TradFi continue to scale and the burn base doubles compared to now, the annual deflation rate could rise to 8%-10%, resulting in a circulating supply contraction of 35%-40% over five years. Combining the demand-side projection from Table 2 with a supply side discounted by 70% or 60%, the neutral scenario's market cap landing point for $HTX would only be higher than Table 2 indicates, not lower.
Finally, let's anchor perception with two comparisons. Same sector: BNB's market cap is about $81 billion, 50 times that of $HTX (~$1.6 billion), while the gap in their spot market shares is only about 10x (Binance ~40% vs. HTX 3.79%)—part of this gap is an ecosystem premium, and another part is the discount from "the narrative not yet being revalued." Gateway-type: CME (global derivatives exchange) has a market cap around $80 billion, HKEX around $50 billion—they are pricing anchors for "gateways for global assets in the traditional world." What $HTX aims to become is the "CME of the crypto world." From $1.6 billion to any of these anchor scales represents the ultimate imagination space for the equity token narrative.
Table 3: Comparative Anchors (Market caps are approximate public data for scale perception)
VII. Why Now: Narrative Revaluation in a Bull Market is the Greatest Alpha
Every bull market has two types of gains: One is Beta, where all boats rise with the tide. BTC rises two-fold, and the vast majority of altcoins follow suit, rising and then falling back. The other is Alpha, stemming from narrative revaluation—the market reprices an asset with a new framework, shifting the entire valuation center upward; once it rises, it rarely falls back.
The reason BNB's 2021 rally charted an independent curve was because the market revalued it from a "fee discount coupon" to an "ecosystem equity certificate." Today's $HTX stands at the starting point of an even grander revaluation: from a "cooperation token of a crypto exchange" to an "Equity Token for Global Assets Entering the Crypto World." The former's ceiling is crypto trading volume; the latter's ceiling is global financial markets. And all the catalysts for this revaluation—the explosion of the TradFi sector, the negative-fee mechanism attracting flow, compliant licensing progress, 11% cumulative burn, status as the sole fee token, and global third-place share growth rate—are all in place in the summer of 2026.
The bull is back. Capital will chase every rising asset in each cycle, but what is truly scarce are those who discern the change in the river's course before the tide rises. The ocean of global financial assets is opening its sluice gates toward the Crypto world. Huobi HTX has already built the gateway to those gates, and $HTX is the equity of that gateway itself. When global stocks, gold, forex, Pre-IPO, and RWAs pass through the gateway into the Crypto world, $HTX is the share of that gateway itself. This is the rationale for being fully bullish on $HTX.
HTX Research Analyst Cloud
Risk Disclosure: This article presents the research views of HTX Research and does not constitute any investment advice. The quantitative projections herein are based on a series of explicit assumptions (penetration rate, market share, turnover rate, fee rate, valuation multiples). Any significant deviation from these assumptions would notably change the outcome. Crypto assets and traditional financial derivatives are subject to extreme price volatility, regulatory policies carry uncertainty, and the sustainability of TradFi sector trading volumes requires further verification. Readers are advised to fully assess their own risk tolerance, view the market rationally, and make independent decisions.
