Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom.
“We still have more pain to go,” Terpin tells Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says.
To be precise, a 66% drop from the ATH would see Bitcoin changing hands for $43,500, a price the asset has not seen since early February 2024. The 68-year-old investor, often referred to as the “Godfather of Crypto,” has seen Bitcoin plunge enough times to know what a true bottom feels like.
The ‘defining hallmarks’ of a Bitcoin bottom
Terpin doesn’t think markets have seen true capitulation yet. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin says.
Michael Terpin spoke to Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Source: Cointelegraph
Terpin points out that greed is invariably why most traders fail to time market cycles correctly. He points to Bitcoin’s previous cycle top in November 2021, when the asset reached around $69,000 before entering an extended consolidation period. “You had quite a bit of time to get out over $60,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” Terpin says, “remember the laser eyes?”
Terpin wasn’t confident back then that Bitcoin would reach $100,000. “I thought there was a possibility it could go to a hundred, but I thought the sweet spot was going to be eighty-five. And it obviously underperformed that because of all the bad macro,” Terpin says.
“We’ve had two cycles in a row now with bad macro. And you would have expected good macro from Trump, but the tariffs, and some of the other things that allowed a lot of manipulation,” Terpin says.
Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, just a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
Terpin worked with Ethereum in its early stages
Terpin was an early investor in the crypto industry and is the founder and CEO of blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures.
Through his company, he worked with several projects during their early development stages that went on to become major names in the industry, including Ethereum, Tether, and WAX. He was also an advisor to Mastercoin, the world’s first initial coin offering (ICO) in 2013. It later became known as Omni Layer.
Terpin claims he was the first crypto investor to relocate to Puerto Rico, which is known for its crypto-friendly tax policies. Since moving, he has also invested in and helped fund several startups based on the island.
Michael Terpin says four-year cycle is not over
He is convinced that Bitcoin is still following its traditional four-year cycle, despite the industry debate in 2025 that institutional adoption and the launch of spot ETFs may have changed the market’s usual boom-and-bust pattern.
Bitcoin is up 1.67% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
“I think we’re still following the halvings. This whole argument that, you know, we’re only going up from here because institutions don’t sell is garbage, right? Institutions absolutely sell.”
Terpin is also cautious about companies built around Bitcoin exposure, including Strategy and its executive chairman Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Buying Strategy stock or Bitcoin?
While acknowledging Saylor’s success, Terpin says investors should understand the risks of investing in a corporate structure rather than owning the underlying asset.
“I mean historically, you’ve done better if you buy Strategy at the bottom and then sell it at the top than if you buy the Bitcoin,” Terpin says. “Whether he’s [Michael Saylor] able to keep that going, and you know, he avoided being wrecked in 2022 when he was actually underwater with his Bitcoin.” But Terpin would personally “rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company.”
And indeed, investors looking for a low maintenance approach should also bet on Bitcoin rather than chasing altcoins, which require far more active management.
“You only have to look at your portfolio like a couple times during the four-year cycle,” Terpin says.
“When we’re getting near the bottom, see if it’s time to buy. And when we’re getting near the top, see when it’s time to sell. And the rest of the time you can just be on the golf course. Whereas with altcoins, you gotta be, you gotta be on it,” Terpin says.
