An address on Polymarket turned $35,000 into $442,000, achieving a 12.6x return. Notably, the position was established hours before a major market movement, and the trades were largely settled before the news spread to mainstream channels. This is not an isolated incident. Before the news of the "Venezuela Raid" political event became public, three addresses made moves in advance and collectively profited $630,000 from the same event.

If such trading occurred in traditional financial markets, one might easily think of information asymmetry. However, in prediction markets, all fund flows and position changes are recorded on the public blockchain; there are no hidden accounts or private transactions.

Being public does not mean there is no gap. The key is not whether you can see the trades, but whether you can discern the truly informative signals from the massive amount of data.

Every Trade on Polymarket is Public Data

Many prediction market participants still view Polymarket as a traditional betting platform: watch the odds, pick a direction, and bet on the outcome. But Polymarket's underlying structure is completely different from DraftKings or ordinary sports betting. All transactions occur on-chain; fund flows, position sizes, and entry/exit timings are all publicly viewable. The operational paths of the most accurate and timely addresses are not post-hoc speculation but real-time on-chain records.

Polymarket's API is also open. Transaction records, market data, and historical trades can be directly called by anyone; there is no permission barrier.

Therefore, the gap is not about who can see the data, but about who can extract meaning from it. On-chain information is public, but what is truly valuable is the ability to identify wallets worth tracking continuously and to recognize behavioral changes before prices fully reflect them.

What Characteristics Do True "Informed Addresses" Typically Have?

It is important to emphasize that not all profitable wallets imply insider information. Some traders have solid research capabilities, while others rely on quantitative models and algorithmic advantages. However, when profitability is repeatedly coupled with specific behavioral patterns, one can observe structural features that distinguish them from mere "luck."

· Type 1: New Addresses Combined with Unusually Large Bets

A wallet created just days ago, with very few transactions, suddenly invests a large amount of capital in a low-liquidity niche market. This behavior is uncommon. Especially in the absence of public catalysts, large, concentrated positions often carry stronger informational significance.

· Type 2: Highly Vertical Trading Focus

Some addresses do not operate across markets but focus long-term on a specific niche, maintaining a stable and significant win rate in that area. They do not diversify across crypto prices, elections, sports, etc., but concentrate their firepower on a single theme, with more decisive position decisions.

· Type 3: Abnormal Changes in Position Size

When an address that has been betting with medium size for a long time suddenly significantly increases its position size in a particular market, this behavior often indicates a change in the strength of conviction. Position size itself is an attitude; a sudden change in scale usually reflects an upgrade in information or belief.

· Type 4: Overly Precise Timing

Occasional early positioning can be attributed to coincidence, but if an address repeatedly completes its positions hours before major news announcements, with highly consistent direction, this temporal lead is difficult to explain simply as luck. Once is random; repeated occurrences are more likely to reflect an information advantage.

How to Systematically Screen for Potential "Information-Advantaged Addresses"

· Step 1: Analyze Performance on Polymarket Leaderboards

Start with the leaderboard on Polymarket Analytics (link: https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders), sorted by 30-day P&L, using recent stable profitability as the first filter. Focus on wallet addresses with an overall positive return over 30 consecutive days, a win rate above 55%, and total profit significantly higher than total loss. Also, confirm that their trading is concentrated in markets with real liquidity, not low-volume prediction events with little participation.

The goal at this stage is not to directly judge whether they have an information advantage, but to build a watchlist of addresses with sustained profitability. A consistent profit record is the foundation for subsequent behavioral analysis.

· Step 2: Analyze Position Structure in Specific Events

After the initial screening, drill down into specific trading events. Enter active prediction markets and check the Top Holders list for that event. Polymarket publicly displays the addresses with the largest current positions; these large positions often represent stronger conviction.

The key is not whether an address hits a single large bet, but whether its behavior is persistent. If a wallet repeatedly appears in the top holder lists for multiple significant events, and these positions were established before the market was fully priced, this repetition itself constitutes a signal.

Hitting once might be chance, but repeatedly making large, early-stage positions with consistent direction and validated outcomes often indicates a judgment system with a stable advantage.

· Step 3: Analyze Trading Behavior and Position Timing

After identifying candidate addresses, further analyze their on-chain transaction history, focusing on entry timing, position structure, and holding rhythm.

First, observe the entry time. If the purchase occurs hours before the official news release and repeats multiple times, the timing advantage itself becomes an important variable; entering after media reports is more likely to be just information following.

Second, analyze the method of position building. Mature traders typically build positions in batches and add gradually, while wallets with strong information judgment often complete concentrated layouts quickly within a short time window because their opportunity is limited.

Furthermore, pay attention to the holding period. Some high-quality addresses choose to exit during the middle of the trend发酵, rather than waiting for the tail end of extreme volatility, indicating their goal is to capture the main trend rather than marginal profits.

Finally, observe their trading scope. Addresses that are highly vertical and long-term focused on a single niche are more likely to form stable information advantages; addresses that frequently operate across sectors are more likely to rely on market sentiment rather than specific domain judgment.

Advanced Address Tracking Strategies

After mastering the basic screening methods, what truly makes the difference is the further dissection of the details of fund behavior.

First, focus on exit behavior, not just entry timing. Addresses with information advantages often not only position early but also actively reduce positions before potential negative news emerges. When a large address with a long, stable holding history suddenly significantly reduces its position without obvious catalysts, the informational content of this action is often higher than the initial buy. Especially when the reduction reaches a significant proportion, this change itself is a signal.

Second, perform wallet clustering analysis using on-chain data. Connections between addresses are not completely untraceable. Identical funding sources, similar Gas usage patterns, and transactions occurring consecutively within a very short time may reveal relationships between addresses. Many seemingly "new" accounts can often be traced back to a long-active old address through 2 or 3 fund transfers. Tracking along the fund flow path helps identify new potential high-quality accounts before the market notices.

Additionally, pay attention to abnormal volume changes in niche markets. If a market with usually small daily trading volume suddenly experiences a large influx of funds without public news, this structural increase in volume often means some participants have acted early. Analyzing the specific addresses driving the volume change can help build a new watchlist.

Finally, cross-validate on-chain behavior with external public information. The so-called "Pizza Index" once inferred potential military action from abnormal order volumes at pizzerias near the Pentagon. Similarly, flight tracking data, social media activity of key figures, adjustments to public calendars, and other information can provide corroboration or counter-verification for on-chain position behavior. The linkage between on-chain capital flows and real-world signals can often strengthen the reliability of judgment.