According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, the price of gold could exceed $5,000 per ounce as early as next year, as the precious metal shows steady growth against the backdrop of rising US debt risks.
Current market dynamics already show a stable upward trend. Over the past week, gold has gained about 3.6%, reaching $4,540 per ounce. Despite partial profit-taking by investors, the overall trend remains bullish.
Morgan Stanley analysts cite actions by the U.S. Treasury as key catalysts for the rise, which doubled the volume of liquidity support operations for 10–30 year government bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. This led to a weakening of the dollar and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks are also actively increasing their gold reserves—China added 60 tons, and Poland added 82 tons to its reserves. Additional support for the precious metals market comes from the growing U.S. national debt, which has exceeded the $40 trillion mark.
Geopolitical tensions and possible sanctions against Iran are also fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, analysts expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the current level of interest rates throughout 2026, which further supports the bullish trend in the precious metals market.
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