Bitcoin price wedged into ‘most divided’ FOMC as Iran war spikes oil prices 8%

cointelegraphPublicado a 2026-07-29Actualizado a 2026-07-29

Resumen

Bitcoin's price fluctuated near $64,000 amid significant macro pressures. Key factors include a continued selloff in Asian and US stocks, particularly semiconductor and AI sectors, and rising geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which spiked oil prices. This raises inflation concerns ahead of a critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decision are highly divided, with traders awaiting cues from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. BTC price action is currently range-bound between key moving averages, with low trading volumes and declining retail interest since late 2025, as capital shifts toward AI stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed around $64,000 on Wednesday as geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions pressured US stocks.

Key points:

Bitcoin constricts near $64,000 as traders contend with multiple macro headwinds.
Downside in Asian stocks continues to spill over into US markets.
The US Federal Reserve prepares to release its next interest-rate decision, a potential risk-asset volatility catalyst.

Risk-asset hurdles pile up ahead of FOMC meeting

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD halting a local rebound at the Wall Street open, having hit 11-day lows of $62,700 the day prior.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These came as part of a risk-asset rout by a selloff in Asian chip-stocks. This trend continued on Wednesday as markets showed increasing concern over the debt obligations by semiconductor and AI giants.

Renewed nerves over escalation in the US-Iran war added to the headwinds, with US President Donald Trump threatening a “beating” as tit-for-tat strikes continued.

“We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating,” he said in an interview with Fox News.

Oil prices snapped higher as a result, with WTI and Brent crude up 7.6% and 5.4%, respectively. Oil-price hikes could significantly impact trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with inflation concerns having a knock-on effect on interest-rate expectations.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Markets are awaiting the result of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on the federal funds rate. The July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will include a statement and press conference by Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Though Warsh has given less guidance than his predecessor, traders will watch for cues to future policy shifts.

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted split opinions as to the Fed’s move on rates. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed 66.3% odds of current levels of 3.5%-3.75% remaining in place, with a 0.25% hike attracting 33.7%.

“Market expectations for tomorrow’s Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history,” it wrote.

Fed target-rate expectations for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Bitcoin price caught between daily moving averages

Ahead of fresh macro catalysts, BTC price action acted broadly within a range bounded by its 50-day simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

Related: Markets eye Bank of Japan meeting on Friday as yen repeats 40-year US dollar lows

BTC/USD four-hour chart with 21-day, 50-day EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This range had begun in mid-July, with failed breakouts taking advantage of liquidity zones on either side.

The latest data from CoinGlass showed potential liquidations building on either side of the current range, with clusters at $63,500 and $64,900.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Trading volumes, however, remained conspicuously low, with spot-market volume at its lowest levels since July 2023.

“CME open interest remains near multi-year lows, perpetual futures open interest has stalled around 300,000 BTC, and average daily spot volume came in at just $2.2 billion for the month,” crypto analytics company K33 Research added in a bulletin on Tuesday.

Retail investor interest in both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been in decline since the latter’s October 2025 all-time highs. AI stocks have formed a major destination for the investor pivot.

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Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the current price level at which Bitcoin is experiencing volatility according to the article?

ABitcoin is experiencing volatility around the $64,000 level.

QAccording to the article, what two major factors are putting pressure on risk assets like US stocks and Bitcoin?

AThe two major factors are geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran war and macroeconomic tensions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision.

QWhat specific event did the article say could significantly impact oil prices and, in turn, influence inflation and interest-rate expectations?

AThe escalation in the US-Iran war, with President Trump's threats, caused oil prices to spike (WTI up 7.6%, Brent up 5.4%), which could impact CPI inflation trends.

QHow does the CME FedWatch Tool show market expectations for the upcoming Fed decision, as described in the article?

AThe FedWatch Tool shows the market expectations are highly divided, with a 66.3% probability of the rate holding steady at 3.5%-3.75% and a 33.7% probability of a 0.25% hike.

QWhat technical indicators is the Bitcoin price currently wedged between, as mentioned in the analysis section of the article?

AThe Bitcoin price action is broadly within a range bounded by its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Lecturas Relacionadas

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with pricing in possible rate hikes, have suppressed risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The Fed's interest rate decisions are crucial for market direction. U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed returns from crypto carry trades, leading investors to favor cash and low-risk interest-bearing instruments over crypto assets. A strong U.S. dollar further weakens marginal demand for crypto. Bitcoin is currently trading below its most intensive cost basis level, with approximately $69,000 identified as the breakeven zone and significant resistance for short-term investors. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $69,000 threshold with increased trading volume. Renewed active demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is also deemed critical. According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin decline represents the shallowest bear market in terms of price drawdown depth to date. However, based on previous cycle durations, this downturn may not be over yet. Spot trading volumes have fallen to multi-year lows, and sell-side order books have thinned, though many buy orders are placed significantly below current prices. Glassnode's risk indicator, Vector, signaled "risk off," suggesting a capital preservation mindset. The current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic factors like monetary policy, bond yields, and dollar strength than by crypto-sector developments. Losing Bitcoin's support range of $62,000-$68,000, coupled with renewed exchange inflows, could negate the recovery scenario. Conversely, more favorable monetary policy, increased trading volume, a Bitcoin recovery above $69,000, and a resumption of spot ETF buying could signal a market turnaround.

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