"Each generation has its own eggs to claim," and the value of this statement continues to rise!
This time, the two titans of the prediction market—Kalshi and Polymarket—are the ones stirring up this egg scramble.
In a bid to grab more attention ahead of the "American Super Bowl," the two platforms recently launched their own "offline promotion performances"—Kalshi offered users $50 worth of free groceries at a market in New York; Polymarket went even further, unveiling its months-in-the-making "first free grocery store in New York," set to open on February 12. In the battle for attention and user growth, the prediction market giants, valued at billions, have chosen the oldest but most effective route: "ground-level offline promotions."
Regarding this, we immediately contacted our New York-based colleague Connie for the latest on "Kalshi and Polymarket's offline promotions" and practical details like "how much can $50 actually buy in New York City?" to share with our readers.
When Prediction Market Giants Dive into Offline Promotions: Kalshi's Pop-Up, Polymarket's "Instant Store Launch"
As one of America's premier metropolises, New York has become a crucial battleground and focal point for Kalshi and Polymarket, the two prediction market giants.
Addressing the growing cost-of-living pressures in New York and across the U.S., both Kalshi and Polymarket have rolled out major initiatives—
On February 3, Kalshi offered select users a【limited-time】$50 free grocery benefit at Westside Market on Third Avenue and 84th Street, aiming to attract more users to participate in various real-world event predictions on their platform.
Judging from the surrounding "flyers," "supermarket posters," and other materials, Kalshi's offline promotion resembled an impromptu "pop-up event"—partnering with a local market to deploy temporary offline materials, using "free $50 worth of groceries" as bait to draw crowds to line up and engage. This was confirmed by Connie.
Additionally, through this pop-up, Kalshi hopes to attract more people to join prediction markets with accessible, low-barrier questions like "Will New York City's gas prices exceed $3.3 this year?" thereby achieving brand marketing and user acquisition goals.
Compared to Kalshi's somewhat rough and highly commercial approach, Polymarket's preparations were undoubtedly more thorough.
On February 3, slightly ahead of Kalshi's announcement, Polymarket officially announced that after months of careful planning, it plans to open "New York's first free grocery store" on February 12 (EST) by leasing a physical storefront. Additionally, Polymarket donated $1 million to the New York City Food Bank to address the region's "hunger issues."
Polymarket also released actual photos of distributing vegetables like tomatoes and eggplants offline, instantly reminiscent of the domestic internet platform promotion era, full of "download the APP get free eggs" and "first recharge gift package" vibes.
It's worth noting that Polymarket not only emphasized that "Polymarket's offline store is well-stocked, no purchase necessary" but also ended its post by encouraging donations to the New York City Food Bank, urging people to take practical action to address the real "hunger issues" caused by high food costs and the soaring cost of living.
Seeing this, one can't help but remark—
Fake crypto project promotions: Host offline conferences, feast on seafood, shill various scam tokens;
Real crypto project promotions: Give away vegetables, eggs, open offline stores for free food, engage in charity and public welfare, call for donations and compassion.
Regarding the actual purchasing power of Kalshi and Polymarket's "egg collection activities," we also discussed in detail with Connie.
The Real Purchasing Power of $50 in New York, USA: 5 McDonald's Meals, 1.5 lbs of Beef, or 2 Days of Food for the Average Person
According to Connie, $50 holds considerable value in New York City.
"Buying a 0.5 lb (about 0.45 kg) portion of beef at a local New York supermarket costs around $18, so $50 can buy about 1.5 lbs of beef"—enough protein for an adult's three meals a day. For comparison, a pound of beef in China costs only about 30 yuan, roughly 1/8th the cost in New York.
Converting to the well-known "Big Mac Index," the real purchasing power of $50 is quite impressive—a cheeseburger meal外卖 (takeout) with 800-1000 calories costs about $10.89, so $50 can buy about 5 meals; a double burger with 580 calories costs only about $7.20. Of course, these prices are "sky-high" compared to China, where the same burger meal costs only 25-40 yuan, half the price of New York's.
In other words, spent frugally, $50 can nearly cover an average person's food costs for about 2 days in New York (based on 5-6 meals). According to Connie, Kalshi's event attracted many Americans to line up for "free food," and "Americans' enthusiasm for queuing for freebies might even surpass that of Chinese people." Polymarket's "offline free grocery store" is also expected to draw large crowds. Based on the information released by Kalshi and Polymarket, the hard costs for these campaigns are likely at least $50,000 to $100,000.
Beyond charity and compassion, Kalshi and Polymarket have their own "business calculations" behind these substantial investments in manpower and resources.
The "Business Strategy" Behind Prediction Platforms' "Egg Giveaways": Influencing Institutional Regulation with Political Issues
Both Kalshi and Polymarket's food donation activities were conducted without coordination or communication with the New York City government; they are voluntary corporate actions.
However, the wording and objectives of their public statements closely align with the "policies" repeatedly emphasized by New York's new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, during his campaign—he proposed "opening publicly owned grocery stores in New York's five boroughs to lower food prices." Zohran Mamdani noted that city-run stores could reduce rental and operational costs through non-profit models and the use of public property. This proposal is still in the pilot stage, with no final implementation timeline yet determined.
On another front, as a key state, New York's legislators are busy drafting new bills targeting the emerging prediction market industry. Among them, the "ORACLE Act" aims to restrict or prohibit New York residents from betting on certain prediction market events and impose stricter regulations on event-based prediction markets; another piece of legislation plans to require prediction market operators to obtain a state-issued license before operating.
It's clear that some lawmakers still have concerns about prediction markets, viewing them as akin to unregulated gambling or susceptible to insider manipulation.
Given this, although the New York mayor has no direct jurisdiction over prediction market regulation (author's note: regulatory authority for prediction market platforms lies with state and federal governments), Kalshi and Polymarket's actions might be an attempt to indirectly seek more favorable regulations.
Finally, regardless of the ultimate impact of their "egg giveaway" efforts, we must admit that Chinese internet platforms' promotion models are likely at least 5-10 years ahead of the Western world.
