The results of the Changxin Technology IPO subscription are out.
On July 20, Changxin Technology released the preliminary offline placement results and online lottery results announcement for its IPO (Initial Public Offering). The announcement shows that there are approximately 7.7 million winning lottery numbers for the online retail investor portion, while 285 institutional investors offline were ultimately allotted 2.173 billion shares. The online winning rate and offline placement ratio are approximately 0.4714% and 0.1756%, respectively.
This much-anticipated domestic memory chip giant officially launched online and offline subscription on July 16, attracting a total of 9.4288 million retail investor accounts and 10,907 accounts managed by 285 offline institutional investors in a rush to participate. Among them, the effective subscription shares from online retail investors reached 816.92 billion shares, while offline institutional investors effectively subscribed to approximately 12.38 trillion shares.
Due to the heated subscription, Changxin Technology activated a clawback mechanism, reallocating 10% (approximately 502 million shares) of the shares, after deducting the final strategic placement portion, from the offline pool to the online pool to meet the subscription demand of online retail investors. This increased the online winning rate from about 0.4099% to about 0.4714%. This winning rate is not only the highest among new listings this year but also sets a new record for the winning rate of STAR Market IPOs.
Simultaneously, offline institutional subscription was equally fervent. Insurance asset manager Taikang Asset Management was the institution that received the largest allotment offline. Among public funds, the top three by allotment quantity were E Fund, Southern Fund, and ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management. Notably, Liang Wenfeng, the founder of the leading domestic large model company DeepSeek, secured the largest share among private funds, receiving a total allotment of 175 million yuan. If Changxin Technology's market capitalization reaches 3 trillion yuan after listing, Liang Wenfeng stands to gain approximately 730 million yuan.
"Quantitative institutions participating in offline IPO subscriptions is an investment strategy to enhance the return rate of their products. Many mainstream institutions participate, needing to meet certain qualification thresholds and market value requirements," an investment manager at a private fund told Caijing.
Furthermore, a total of 30 strategic investors, including the National Social Security Fund, were allotted 14.437 billion yuan collectively, with lock-up periods ranging from 12 to 36 months.
The market expects Changxin Technology to officially list on July 27 and become the A-share technology stock with the highest market capitalization.
Currently, market valuations for Changxin Technology mostly exceed one trillion yuan. Huaxi Securities predicts a neutral valuation for Changxin Technology between 2 trillion and 3 trillion yuan, considering 2 trillion yuan (corresponding to a P/E ratio of 30) as a reasonable valuation, potentially reaching 3 trillion yuan under optimistic scenarios. SDIC Securities research report sets four valuation scenarios—conservative, neutral, optimistic, and super-optimistic—corresponding to Changxin Technology valuations of 1 trillion, 1.5 trillion, 2.3 trillion, and 4.25 trillion yuan, respectively.
9.42 Million Retail Investors in IPO Subscription
The announcement shows that after the activation of the over-allotment option and the online/offline clawback mechanisms, the final offline issuance quantity was 2.173 billion shares, accounting for approximately 28.25% of the total issuance quantity after full exercise of the over-allotment option. Among these, the final issuance quantity of offline shares without a lock-up period is approximately 652 million shares, and the final issuance quantity of offline shares with a lock-up period is 1.521 billion shares. The final online issuance quantity significantly increased from the initial 669 million shares to 3.851 billion shares. Its proportion of the total issuance also rose from the initial mere 10% to 50.07% of the total issuance after full exercise of the over-allotment option.
This also means that after strategic placement and online/offline clawbacks, the portion participated in by retail individual investors substantially increased. Meanwhile, the online issuance quantity of 3.851 billion shares far exceeds the online issuance quantity of this year's other new listing, China Resources New Energy (approximately 800 million shares). It is not only the largest online issuance scale for a new listing in 2026 but also sets a historical record for the online issuance scale of STAR Market IPOs, making it the stock with the largest online float in the history of the STAR Market.
This also resulted in Changxin Technology's IPO winning rate being significantly higher than previous new listings. According to the announcement, this online subscription attracted 9.4288 million retail investor accounts to participate, with effective subscription shares reaching 816.92 billion shares. There are approximately 7.7 million winning lottery numbers. The final online winning rate for Changxin Technology is 0.47141739%, meaning about five out of every thousand allotment numbers win.
Calculated based on the required market value participation, approximately 1.06 million yuan of Shanghai market value was needed to win one allotment. This unusually high winning rate is about 15.7 times the average winning rate of 0.03% (three ten-thousandths) for STAR Market IPOs this year and also sets a record for the highest IPO winning rate in the history of the STAR Market.
Caijing noted that many online and surrounding investors have already posted screenshots showing they won allotments for Changxin Technology's IPO.
It is worth noting that Changxin Technology reminded winning investors in the announcement to fulfill their payment obligations promptly on July 20, 2026 (T+2 day).
For investors, how much profit can they gain from winning a Changxin Technology allotment? Based on the STAR Market standard of 500 shares per allotment, winning one allotment of Changxin Technology shares is expected to require payment of 4,330 yuan. If calculated based on the median first-day increase of 289.48% for STAR Market IPOs this year, the subscription profit would be approximately 12,500 yuan; calculated based on the average first-day increase of 489.83% for STAR Market IPOs this year, the subscription profit would be approximately 21,200 yuan.
Simultaneously, based on Changxin Technology's issuance market capitalization of approximately 579.2 billion yuan, if the post-listing market capitalization reaches 2 trillion yuan, corresponding to a share price of 29.9 yuan/share, winning one allotment could yield a profit of 10,600 yuan; if the market capitalization reaches 3 trillion yuan, corresponding to a share price of 44.86 yuan/share, winning one allotment could yield a profit of 18,100 yuan; if market sentiment is extremely bullish and the market capitalization surges to 4 trillion yuan, the profit from winning one allotment could reach 25,600 yuan.
Liang Wenfeng Allotted 175 Million Yuan
While retail individual investors were notified of their lottery results, Changxin Technology also simultaneously disclosed the offline placement results for institutional investors.
According to the announcement, 285 offline institutional investors managing 10,907 valid placement accounts participated in the offline subscription, with effective subscription shares totaling approximately 12.38 trillion shares. The final allotment quantity was 2.173 billion shares, with a placement ratio of approximately 0.1756%, lower than the 0.4714% online winning rate for individual investors. Among the allotted shares, 30% can be freely sold directly on the first day of listing without a lock-up period; 70% of the shares are forcibly locked for six months, with a one-time release upon expiration.
Offline institutional investors are categorized into Class A (public funds, social security funds, pension funds, annuities, bank wealth management products, insurance, QFII) and Class B (private funds, securities firm proprietary trading, trusts, finance companies, etc.). Class A investors, mainly public funds, were allotted 1.978 billion shares, accounting for 91% of the total offline issuance; while Class B investors, mainly private funds, were allotted 196 million shares, accounting for only 9% of the total offline issuance.
Source: Changxin Technology Announcement
Among the offline subscription institutions, insurance asset manager Taikang Asset Management received the largest allotment, with 614 products collectively allotted 174 million shares, amounting to 1.504 billion yuan. Among public funds, E Fund, Southern Fund, and ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management ranked top three in allotment quantity, receiving 169 million shares, 139 million shares, and 117 million shares respectively, with allotment amounts of 1.461 billion yuan, 1.202 billion yuan, and 1.012 billion yuan.
Notably, Liang Wenfeng secured the largest share among private funds. His established Ningbo Fantasia Quantitative, with 153 funds receiving allotments—including products like Fantasia 500 Index Enhanced Xinxiang No.16 Fund, Fantasia CSI 300普惠 No.1 Fund, Fantasia金选中性专享 No.7 Phase 5 Private Securities Investment Fund, Fantasia Quantitative 1000 Index专享 No.14 Phase 2 Fund, and Fantasia Quantitative皓月 No.24 Fund—collectively received approximately 15.354 million shares, amounting to about 133 million yuan.
Furthermore, another quantitative institution under Liang Wenfeng, Zhejiang Jiuzhang Asset Management, with 41 products, collectively received approximately 4.895 million shares, amounting to about 42 million yuan. Through these two entities, Liang Wenfeng's 194 private fund products received allotments, totaling approximately 20.2497 million shares and a combined allotment amount of about 175 million yuan, making it the private fund institution with the largest allotment quantity. If Changxin Technology's market capitalization reaches 3 trillion yuan, Liang Wenfeng's institutions could potentially gain 730 million yuan from this IPO subscription.
Public information shows that the actual controllers of both Ningbo Fantasia Quantitative and Zhejiang Jiuzhang Asset Management are Liang Wenfeng. They are the two core licensed private fund entities of Fantasia Quantitative, a leading domestic quantitative institution he founded. As of 2026, Fantasia Quantitative's management scale remains steadily in the hundred-billion-yuan梯队, making it a leading domestic AI (Artificial Intelligence) quantitative private fund.
Additionally, among private fund institutions, the second and third places in allotment quantity are also quantitative institutions: Yanfu Investment and Jiukun Investment, which received approximately 17.6 million shares and 16.1 million shares respectively, with allotment amounts of 152 million yuan and 139 million yuan.
Based on previous market assessments, according to Changxin Technology's current profit trend, its post-IPO market capitalization is expected to reach at least the one-trillion-yuan level. Meanwhile, some institutions estimate that based on projected 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company of 150-200 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 20, Changxin Technology's market capitalization could exceed 3 trillion yuan.
However, it is worth noting that since July, global technology stocks have experienced a significant correction, with overseas memory stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics seeing corrections of nearly 40%. Simultaneously, A-share memory sector stocks have also corrected significantly, with stocks like GigaDevice and Demingli falling over 50% from their highs.
"The recent sharp correction in global technology stocks may, to some extent, affect Changxin Technology's stock price performance after listing," the aforementioned private fund investment manager told Caijing.
This article is from the WeChat public account "读数一帜" (ID: dushuyizhi007), author: Kang Guoliang.
