Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser2010 )
The World Cup officially begins, bringing exponential growth opportunities in trading volume for prediction markets.
According to a report from asset management giant Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate up to $10 billion in consumer trading volume and over $3 billion in incremental funds for sports betting and prediction markets. Previously, various prediction markets and exchanges have launched incentive campaigns aiming to leverage this event to boost attention and trading volume. With the kickoff of the group stage, scripts such as favored teams losing to underdogs, weaker teams holding strong sides to draws, and dark horse upsets have unfolded one after another. Players in the prediction markets have also experienced their own moments of "striking it rich" and "suffering massive losses." (Recommended reading: "World Cup Prediction Battle Begins, How Are Major Exchanges Competing for This Wave of Event Traffic?" and "The World Cup's Second Scene: Inside the Prediction Markets.")
Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that sports event prediction markets are highly prone to various upsets; caution is advised when copying trades.
World Cup Profit Representative Accounts: 4 Wins in 4 Bets, New Account Profits Nearly $10 Million
First, let's look at the profit leaderboard, which includes newly created wallets that have won nearly ten million dollars in profit with their first moves. While it raises suspicions of insider information, one can't help but marvel: "The ball is round; anything can happen on the World Cup stage."
First Contestant: 4 Wins, Profiting $9.24 Million in a Single Day
Yesterday, a smart-money wallet (@mintblade) earned $9.24 million in profit from World Cup match predictions within a day, winning all 4 predictions it participated in, achieving a 100% win rate. In the match between Iran and New Zealand, this participant invested $7.03 million predicting "Iran will not win" and earned $7.34 million from that single prediction. It is worth noting that this user ranks first on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboards.
Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@mintblade
Second Contestant: First Bet Profits $9.06 Million, Biggest Winner from Spain's Upset Draw
In the early hours of the 16th, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a surprising draw. A new wallet (@Fishalive) spent $4.22 million on Polymarket predicting "Spain will not win the match" and "Cape Verde to win with a -2.5 handicap." Ultimately, the $4.22 million grew to $13.28 million, resulting in a $9.06 million profit.
It is worth noting that they bought approximately 4.7 million shares of "Spain will not win" at an average price of 9 cents probability. After the match concluded and settled at 100 cents, this single trade yielded a profit of about $4.31 million, representing a return of over 1000%. This user ranks second on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboards with a $9.06 million profit.
Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@fishalive
Third Contestant: 2 Trades, $5.2 Million Profit
On the 15th, Polymarket user @LEEEROYJENKINS invested a total of $4.73 million predicting "Turkey will not win" and "Australia with a handicap of 1.5." Both trades were successful, resulting in a final profit of $5.2 million. In a single trade, this user achieved a 128% profit rate.
It is worth noting that, although their single highest profit reached $4.8 million, their overall trading history still shows nearly $2.58 million in losses.
Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/0x99aea8f9a64d0142b6b66a4b9d02a2211d45386f
Fourth Contestant: Rank 3 on Polymarket Profit Leaderboard, Over $7.85 Million Profit in Past Week
Polymarket user @endlessFate profited $4.7 million in the past week. Previously, in the match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, they boldly invested $2.48 million, predicting "draw," "Uruguay will not win," and "Saudi Arabia with a handicap of 1.5," ultimately earning a $5.67 million profit. In the "Australia vs. Turkey" match, they predicted "Australia with a handicap of 1.5."
In the currently ongoing match "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan," they invested nearly $7.5 million predicting "Colombia to win," currently profiting over $2.05 million. Currently, they rank third on Polymarket's weekly profit leaderboard with over $7.85 million in profit. Another noteworthy point is that this user started participating in predictions on Polymarket in April this year, with overall profits exceeding $6 million, despite multiple previous prediction losses.
Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@endlessfate
Current prediction for "Colombia VS Uzbekistan"
Account's weekly profit/loss performance
For more weekly profit accounts, please refer to the official leaderboard: https://polymarket.com/zh/leaderboard/overall/weekly/profit.
World Cup Loss Representative Accounts: $1 Million Loss from Upset, Over $1.8 Million Lost Betting Against Argentina
In prediction markets, for every winner, there is a loser. The opposing side always exists, just in a different identity and form.
Spain VS Cape Verde: 0:0 Draw Causes Single Account Loss of $1 Million
Polymarket data shows that account @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bought "Spain to win" in the World Cup group stage match Spain vs. Cape Verde. The match ended 0:0, resulting in a $999,000 loss for this user.
It is worth noting that this user bought in at the 92-cent mark, meaning they risked $1 million in principal for an $85,000 potential profit—a seemingly sure-win trade. Ultimately, it resulted in a loss due to the stunning draw, credited to Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper's seven incredible saves and the team's exceptionally strong defense.
Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@betoor619?tab=activity
Lost the watermelon and didn't get the sesame either
Messi Scores Hat-Trick, Argentina Defeats Algeria, Single Trade Loss Exceeds $1.8 Million
On the 17th, before the start of the World Cup match Argentina vs. Algeria, prediction market whale weatherman12 invested $1.81 million predicting "Argentina will not win" and "Algeria +1.5." If Argentina had drawn or lost, these two bets would have profited $2.65 million.
However, in the end, the Argentine team, led by Messi's "hat-trick" of three goals, successfully defeated Algeria, with the match ending "3:0." Consequently, all the funds invested by this user were lost.
Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@weatherman12
Odaily Planet Daily will continue to monitor World Cup match-related predictions on prediction market platforms. Welcome to join the Odaily Prophet channel.
