On the 4th of February 2026, Bitcoin [BTC] came under pressure. At press time, BTC was down 3.14% over the past 24 hours, trading at $76,246.31 and testing levels many analysts believed had already been left behind.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg Crypto, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz observed,
“Bitcoin was not supposed to act like this. Something went wrong. I think we’re getting close to the bottom, but we’ll see.”
Crypto community reacts
The crypto community also reacted to Novogratz’s analysis, with one user on X noting,
“Absolutely. When big players like Novogratz start signaling “bottom territory,” it’s worth paying attention. BTC’s volatility isn’t broken — it’s just shaking out weak hands before the next leg up.”
Joining the fray, another X user emphasized the four-year market cycle and added,
“Based on the good ol 4 year cycle, it’s absolutely supposed to do this.”
Factors responsible for BTC’s downfall
That said, this market downturn isn’t random. It’s part of Bitcoin’s usual cycle that follows each halving. After the April 2024 halving, 2025 brought strong growth, just as it has in past cycles.
Bitcoin surged to a record $126,000 in October 2025. But now, about 22 months after the halving, the market has entered the correction phase.
During this period, early investors often take profits, driving prices lower. At roughly $76K, Bitcoin now sits nearly 40% below its peak, mirroring past post‐boom corrections.
Broader economic pressures have added to the decline. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have unsettled global markets, prompting investors to favor safer assets like gold and reducing demand for riskier holdings such as Bitcoin.
Compounding this, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates, particularly following Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, has further tightened liquidity.
Amidst this uncertainty, another X user popped up a question, asking,
“Is a rebound really imminent?”
What are technical indicators hinting at?
As Bitcoin moves through this volatile phase, technical indicators offer some cautious optimism. Although the MACD still showed a bearish trend, the RSI has fallen to deeply oversold levels near 27, as of writing.
In the past, this often came before a short-term bounce.
This sharp sell‐off may have gone too far, too quickly, opening the door for a potential relief rally toward $80,000.
Bitcoin’s dominance, holding near 60%, is another encouraging signal, suggesting investors are keeping capital in Bitcoin rather than exiting the crypto market entirely.
Still, experts remain split on the outlook, with opinions divided over whether the rebound can sustain or if further downside lies ahead.
Analysts’ mixed expectations for Bitcoin
Tom Lee of Fundstrat believes the market is close to a bottom and expects a recovery later this year. Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research is more cautious. He warns that if current levels break, Bitcoin could fall toward $56,000.
Aurelie Barthere of Nansen adds that future price moves may depend on changes in U.S. monetary policy. Overall, 2026 is becoming a test of patience for investors.
Now, whether this is just a temporary shakeout or the start of a longer downturn is still unclear.
Much depends on how Bitcoin holds the $74,000 support level in the coming weeks, which could shape the market’s direction for years ahead.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s current pullback closely mirrors past post-halving corrections seen in previous market cycles.
- Oversold RSI levels suggest selling pressure may be easing, even as MACD continues to signal weakness.
