Author: ARK Invest
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
In the 2026 macro context, ARK Invest points out that four major trends are enhancing Bitcoin's value and believes that Bitcoin is evolving from an "optional" fringe asset to an indispensable strategic asset in institutional investment portfolios. Details are as follows.
In 2025, Bitcoin continued to deeply integrate into the global financial system. The launch and growth of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 and 2025, the inclusion of digital asset-listed companies in major stock indices, and increasing regulatory clarity are driving Bitcoin from the fringe to a new asset class that ARK Invest considers worthy of institutional allocation.
ARK Invest believes the core theme of this cycle is Bitcoin's transformation: from an "optional" emerging monetary technology to a strategic allocation asset in the eyes of more and more investors. Four trends are enhancing Bitcoin's value proposition:
- The macro and policy backdrop shaping demand for scarce digital assets
- Structural ownership trends encompassing ETFs, corporations, and sovereign nations
- Bitcoin's relationship with gold and broader store-of-value instruments
- Bitcoin's drawdowns and volatility are decreasing compared to previous cycles
This article will elaborate on these trends.
2026 Macroeconomic Backdrop
Monetary Conditions and Liquidity
After a prolonged period of monetary tightening, the macro landscape is changing: US quantitative tightening (QT) ended last December, and the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is still in its early stages. Additionally, over $10 trillion in low-yield money market funds and fixed-income ETFs may soon rotate into risk assets.
Policy and Regulatory Normalization
Regulatory clarity is both a constraint and a potential catalyst for institutional adoption. In the US and other countries, policymakers have been advancing frameworks to clarify digital asset regulation, standardize custody, trading, and disclosure processes, and provide more guidance for institutional allocators.
For example, acts like the US CLARITY Act, if implemented—which would place digital commodities under CFTC regulation and digital securities under SEC regulation—could significantly reduce compliance uncertainty for companies and institutions focused on digital assets. The act provides a compliance roadmap for the digital asset lifecycle through a standardized "maturity test," allowing tokens to transition from SEC to CFTC oversight after decentralization. The act implements a dual-registration system for broker-dealers, reducing the legal "vacuum" historically associated with digital asset companies operating offshore.
The US government has also addressed Bitcoin-related issues through:
- Discussions between lawmakers and industry leaders about incorporating Bitcoin into national reserves.
- Standardized management of seized Bitcoin holdings (most of which are currently controlled by the federal government).
- State-level adoption of Bitcoin, with Texas leading the way by purchasing and incorporating it into state reserves.
Structural Demand: ETFs and DATs
ETFs as Structural New Buyers
The scaled expansion of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reshaped the market's supply and demand dynamics. As shown in the chart below, by 2025, US Bitcoin spot ETFs and DATs absorbed 1.2 times the amount of newly mined Bitcoin and dormant Bitcoin re-entering the market (active supply growth). By the end of 2025, ETFs and DATs held over 12% of the total circulating supply. Despite demand growth outstripping supply growth, Bitcoin's price fell, seemingly due to external factors: a large-scale liquidation event triggered by a software glitch on October 10th, concerns about the four-year cycle inflection point, and negative sentiment surrounding the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's cryptography.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and 21Shares, 2026 Forecast, data from Glassnode, as of December 31, 2025.
In the fourth quarter, Morgan Stanley and Vanguard added Bitcoin to their investment platforms. Morgan Stanley expanded client access to compliant Bitcoin products, including spot ETFs. Surprisingly, Vanguard, after years of rejecting cryptocurrencies and all commodities, also added third-party Bitcoin ETFs to its platform. As ETFs mature, they will increasingly serve as structural bridges connecting the Bitcoin market with traditional pools of capital.
Bitcoin-Related Companies in Indices, Corporate Adoption, and Bitcoin Reserves
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is no longer limited to a few early adopters. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have included stocks of companies like Coinbase and Block, introducing Bitcoin-related exposure to mainstream portfolios. The company formerly known as MicroStrategy, operating as a DAT entity, has built a substantial Bitcoin position, accounting for 3.5% of the total supply. Additionally, Bitcoin DAT companies currently hold over 1.1 million BTC, representing 5.7% of the supply (worth approximately $89.9 billion as of the end of January 2026). Largely, these corporate reserves belong to long-term holders, not short-term speculators.
Sovereign Nations and Strategic Reserves
In 2025, following El Salvador, the Trump administration utilized seized Bitcoin to establish the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). This reserve now holds approximately 325,437 BTC, representing 1.6% of the total supply, valued at $25.6 billion.
Bitcoin and Gold as Stores of Value
Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows?
In recent years, gold and Bitcoin have reacted differently to macro narratives like currency devaluation, negative real rates, and geopolitical risk. In 2025, driven by inflation concerns and fiat devaluation, gold prices soared 64.7%. Somewhat surprisingly, Bitcoin's price fell 6.2%. This divergence is not unprecedented.
In both 2016 and 2019, rising prices in gold preceded rises in Bitcoin. During the early COVID-19 shock in 2020, a surge in fiscal and monetary liquidity saw gold's rise also presage Bitcoin's. As shown in the chart below, this "gold-Bitcoin" pattern was particularly evident in 2017 and 2018. Will history repeat? According to historical relationships, Bitcoin is a high-beta, digitally native extension of the same macro trading logic that has historically supported gold.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and 21Shares, 2026, data from Glassnode and TradingView, as of January 31, 2026.
ETF AUM: Bitcoin's Growing Share
Cumulative ETF net inflows provide another point of comparison between Bitcoin and gold. According to Glassnode and the World Gold Council, spot Bitcoin ETFs achieved in less than two years what gold ETFs took over 15 years to accomplish, as shown below. In other words, financial advisors, institutions, and retail investors seem to more readily accept Bitcoin's role as a store of value, diversification tool, and new asset class.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and 21Shares, 2025, data from Glassnode and the World Gold Council, as of December 31, 2025.
Notably, as shown in the chart below, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold returns was very low in the previous cycle since 2020. That is, gold may be a leading indicator.
Note: The correlation matrix above uses weekly return data from January 1, 2020, to January 6, 2026.
Market Structure and Investor Behavior
Drawdowns, Volatility, and Market Maturation
Bitcoin is a volatile asset, but its drawdowns have decreased over time. In previous cycles, peak-to-trough declines often exceeded 70–80%. In the current cycle since 2022 (as of February 8, 2026), drawdowns from all-time highs have not exceeded approximately 50% (as shown below). This suggests that even facing significant corrections (like the adjustment in the first week of February 2026), the market is behaving more robustly due to increased participation and deeper liquidity.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and 21Shares, 2025 Forecast, data from Glassnode, as of January 31, 2026.
These observations suggest Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a globally tradable macro financial instrument, with an increasingly diverse holder base supported by robust trading, liquidity, and custody infrastructure.
Long-Term Holding vs. Market Timing
According to Glassnode data,假设一位“运气最差”的比特币投资者,假设一位“运气最差”的比特币投资者 (Assuming a "worst-luck" Bitcoin investor) who invested $1000 at the yearly peak price from 2020 to 2025, their total investment of ~$6000 would have grown to ~$9660 by December 31, 2025, and to ~$8680 by January 31, 2026, representing returns of ~61% and ~45% respectively (as shown below). Even considering the early February correction, by February 8th, this investment would have reached $7760, a return of approximately 29%.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and 21Shares, 2026, data from Glassnode, as of January 31, 2026
This shows that since 2020, holding period and position size have been more important than timing the purchase: the market tends to reward investors who focus on Bitcoin's value proposition rather than its volatility.
Bitcoin's Strategic Question Today
In 2026, the narrative around Bitcoin is no longer about whether it will "survive," but about its role in a diversified portfolio. Bitcoin is:
- A scarce, non-sovereign asset in the context of evolving global monetary policy, government deficits, and trade deficits.
- A high-beta extension of traditional store-of-value assets like gold.
- A globally liquid macro instrument accessible through regulated vehicles.
As regulatory and infrastructure advancements lower barriers to entry, long-term holders, including ETFs, corporations, and sovereign entities, have absorbed a large portion of new Bitcoin supply. Historical data also suggests that due to Bitcoin's low correlation with other assets, including gold, allocating to Bitcoin has the potential to improve portfolio risk-adjusted returns, especially as its volatility and drawdowns have decreased over a full market cycle.
ARK Invest believes that as investors evaluate this new asset class in 2026, the question they face is no longer "whether" to allocate to Bitcoin, but "how much" and "through which channels."
Related reading: Conversation with Cathie Wood: Eight Insights on the 2026 Grand Plan
