市场多维度向好,链游赛道融资加速

Foresight ResearchPublicado a 2022-03-28Actualizado a 2022-03-28

Resumen

本周BTC持续上涨。技术层面是整体偏多,BTC处于周线级别调整尾声,当前上涨距离牛熊分界线已是近在眼前。

市场观点

现货观点

本周BTC持续上涨。技术层面是整体偏多,BTC处于周线级别调整尾声,当前上涨距离牛熊分界线已是近在眼前。ETH周线级别突破,这次ETH明显强于BTC,主要是转POS减产影响。宏观上,美联储资产负债表继续扩张,至8.9625万亿美元,是08年底的11倍,过去两周扩张了510亿美元。以此速度,两周之内将到9万亿美元。这周美国免除部分中国商品关税,帮助美国去通胀,有利于加息放缓,对美股与加密市场形成利好。同时俄罗斯考虑用BTC支付石油和天然气。

链上观点

交易所的巨鲸指标(WhaleRatio)观察到,巨鲸与散户之间的行为出现重大分歧。从去年年底开始,由于美联储加息与缩表预期,双方都进行了减仓。但是2月底以来,巨鲸不再恐慌,认识到市场或已充分消化缩表影响,逐渐将资金带回市场。另一方面,散户仍然处在熊市思维当中,保持在很低的交易频次。

稳定币数据显示,USDT市值占比已到达周期顶部区间,大变盘就在朝夕。历史上每当稳定币重新下场(例如20年10月,21年7月),BTC都会迎来新一轮宏观上升趋势。

本周链上数据跟踪到,标记为SBF的聪明钱地址加仓约3.5亿美元。USDT在波场增发7.4亿美元,表明有新资金入场。

期货观点

本周期货市场情绪偏空。各交易所的BTC多空比下降,永续资金费率为负,未平仓合约量上升,表明刚刚这轮上涨之后,大部分人开始开单做空。

市场热点

ETH

ETH在2.0开发上有了重大突破,随着测试网kiln成功升级为完整的POS共识机制,预计6月有望正式合并。ETH当前每天产出约1.2万个ETH,一旦转为POS后,产出会减少90%,相当于BTC的三次减半,即每天产出约1300个。近期ETH每天销毁约2000个,即未来每天负增长700个。而ETH网络活跃的时候,每天销毁约2万个。

STG

Stargate是基于LayerZero首个跨链流动性应用,在推出一周后锁仓额迅速突破20亿美元。LayerZero团队聘请了SushiSwap联合创始人0xMaki加入;其投资者阵容豪华,包括binance,multicoincapital,polychain等知名机构。SBF旗下的Alameda购买了Stargate这次发行的所有STG(10%份额),计划3年内不会出售。

市场数据

公链总锁仓量情况

本周TVL出现4.78B的上涨,上涨幅度为2.26%,远低于BTC和ETH上涨幅度,可能表明整体市场TVL增量较差和小币种表现仍较差。

各公链TVL占比情况

本周收益于ETH大幅上涨,ETH链占比大幅提升,从上周的54.84%上升至56.15%,占比上升1.31%,TerraTVL出现近两个月以来第一次占比下降,下降0.52%,其余各链变化均较小。

各链协议锁仓量情况

ETH锁仓量情况

BSC锁仓量情况

Solana锁仓量情况

Avalanche锁仓量情况

Polygon锁仓量情况

Fantom锁仓量情况

Terra锁仓量情况

本周协议情况总结

本周Curve协议在ETH链上出现较大增长,其余协议中BeethovenX出现较大增长,TVL即将突破前高,BeethovenX是基于Balancer构建的,主要特色是为流动性提供商赋予较大自由度,可任意选择注入资金的比例,如20%的ETH和80%的USDT来配对,降低无常损失。其代币BEETS,本周出现15%幅度增长,但距离前高仍有较大空间。

ETHGasfee历史情况

当前链上转账费用约为$2.56,Uniswap交易费用约为$8.72,Opensea的交易费用约为$9.56,基本与上周同期持平,整体点位继续保持最低点。

NFT市场数据变化

NFT指数市值

NFT市场交易概览

NFT"聪明的钱"购买排序

近期NFT市值继续出现小幅增长,且活跃性出现明显增强,短期可能迎来一波NFT热潮,从市场交易量和聪明的钱购买系列来看均指向了同一款NFT,Worldofwomengalaxy;此系列为Worldofwomen的第二期产品,WorldofWomen是倡导女性权益的重要NFT标志,由中东艺术家YamKarkai手绘的女性头像组合的NFT头像,共1万个,该NFT的拥有者可以拥有对应NFT的商业版权。不仅如此,若玩家拥有带有特殊配饰的女性头像NFT,还可获得分享版权费和WoW基金利润的50%,以及有权建议让WoW基金购买价格不超过0.3ETH的NFT作品。值得一提的是,WorldofWomen将销售额的7.5%捐赠给现实世界的公益项目来支持女性。目前Worldofwomengalaxy刚刚发售不久,Opensea地板价为1.6ETH,对比上期Worldofwomen的11个ETH地板价仍有较大升值空间。

项目最新融资情况

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Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

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Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

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