【研报精选】有望在下一轮牛市继续爆发？Solana可能是优秀的壳资源链

MirrorPublicado a 2022-12-23Actualizado a 2022-12-29

Resumen

数据显示Solana上的开发者贡献数量在SOL代币价格下跌95%的情况下仍然呈现年2.5倍的增长。对这个数据略持怀疑。如今Solana上的初始投资机构Multicoin等早就赚的盆满钵满，渐渐会退出Solana的主导和控制。道理也不难明白，套现走人了而已。同样的，未必是坏事。Sam的崩溃和机构的有序撤退，让Solana变得纯粹。在有优秀壳资源的前提之下，有社区化的可能性。至于下轮周期是否能突破前十，还是下一个EOS，就看运气吧。

FTX崩溃后，Solana的TVL骤减67%，遭受重创。墙倒众人推。“Sam Coin、Sam Chain”完蛋了是许多人的直觉。不过Messari最近的一篇报告表明Solana的情况没有外界想象的糟糕。即便是在Sam失势后，Solana仍然具有重要的壳资源价值。脱离Sam的Solana反倒给了自己一次凤凰涅槃的机会。

从协议层面的进展，有由Jump推出的Firedancer轻客户端。公链的轻客户端越多，网络宕机的整体性风险也就越小。包括最近A16Z自己开发的以太坊轻客户端Helios是同样的道理。

也有Jito-solana这样结合流动性质押和MEV价值索取的应用。MEV Bot在每条公链成为标配。而以太坊上的FlashBot近期也公布了计划，有计划成为一条MEV Chain。类似于Dydx从以太坊生态的应用迁移到Cosmos做独立链。

说到DyDx去Cosmos上做应用链，我会觉得诸如此类的迁移更多是“叙事先行”。打铁还需自身硬。本质上还是得看自己能否被市场接受。一个本来能力就不行的项目，迁移到哪条链都是无济于事。当然不否认公链自身的用户属性和时机对项目崛起的重要性。像Axie就经历了EOS到ETH漫长的跨越周期的迁移探索。以及GMX从BSC迁移至Arbitrum后成为Arb最核心的项目。

无论是整体链，还是应用链。无论是L1还是L2。ZK也好，Optimistic也好。以及以上的所有排列组合。一切都是技术革新上的探索哲学层面的探讨。最终还要落实到创新性项目诞生并且被市场接受。实际上每一条链，每一条L2，每一条Rollup能诞生一个爆款应用并且围绕它产生生态，已是成功。这也符合马太聚集效应的理论。A16Z的基础堆栈和应用迭代理论是神作。

像其他优化节点和数据效率的一些进展，QUIC/QOS/Local Fee Market等等因过于技术不赘述。

作为PoS网络，去中心化的问题逃不过。尽管有2000多个节点，130多个数据中心，35个区域，网络仍然集中在少数节点/数据中心/区域中。PoS网络都逃不过这个问题，以太坊几万个节点也无可避免。追溯到五年前，十年前，PoW网络也是集中的。既然世界上的财富本就是集中的，我倒是更愿意接受PoW转PoS是为了减少环境污染的说辞。

Solana上的所有游戏，典型像Aurory/Star Atalas等等，在21/22年曾经轰轰烈烈，至今未上线主网，大概率是难产了。Eclipse and Nitro是两个有趣的项目，他们在尝试把Solana的虚拟机SVM迁移到Celestia和Cosmos这类的Rollup链上。Solana曾经让大家一度相信是一条专注于专业Trading的链，因此在订单本Dex/专业衍生品领域会有大突破。Drift,/Zeta Markets/Friktion/PsyOptions这些衍生品项目，也都是不温不火。在Serum崩溃之后，出现了几个社区主导的Sreum Fork项目OpenBook,/Ellipsis Labs/Lifinit等。这未尝不是一件坏事。也许Solana真的是一条有专业交易优势的链，只是前期过多的被Sam主导导致没有发挥出其优势。

的应用迁移到Cosmos做独立链。

像其他优化节点和数据效率的一些进展，QUIC/QOS/Local Fee Market等等因过于技术不赘述。

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