Why Has Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Flatlined? Factors

newsbtcPublicado a 2022-03-23Actualizado a 2022-03-23

Resumen

Bitcoin trends higher in the last few days as it approaches the mid area around its current levels. The benchmark crypto has seen some relief in the past days but...

Bitcoin trends higher in the last few days as it approaches the mid area around its current levels. The benchmark crypto has seen some relief in the past days but seems unlikely to fully reclaim its previous bullish momentum.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $42,500 with a 4% profit in the last day and a 12% profit over the last two weeks.

BTC with minor gains on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview As NewsBTC has been reporting, Bitcoin seems to be reacting to the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) shift in monetary policy and the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The financial institution announced a rate hike of 25 basic points (bps) for the coming months.
This increment meets market expectations. No major announcement is expected from the FED in the short term.
As for the armed conflict, attempts to reach a diplomatic solution have failed, with no clear winner on the battlefield. The parties seem to be at a stalemate.
This tense calm has moved to the market and the uncertainty could lead Bitcoin into further consolidation between its current levels, and the high area around $30,000.
In support of this thesis, Arcane Research records no major movements in Open Interest (OI) for the BTC-based derivatives sector. This metric has remained stable at around 360,000 BTC and 380,000 BTC since the start of 2022.
As seen below, the OI for BTC futures has been moving sideways along the price of Bitcoin, as it registers a decrease in volatility. In other words, the BTC market could be experiencing a period of low activity which suggests no important trends in either direction.

Source: Arcane Research The Last Time Bitcoin Open Interest Hinted At Consolidation
The 30-day volatility for Bitcoin OI futures, as Arcane Research reported, saw a 1% low in March, and has trended a bit higher in the last two weeks. The metric currently stands at 1.5%.
The research firm claims current trading activity has been lower than during a similar period of consolidation in 2021. Arcane Research added:
Overall, the BTC denominated open interest remains relatively lofty at 370,000 BTC. We’ve rarely seen open interest being maintained at such levels for such a long duration without any major squeeze setbacks such as those experienced during the spring and fall bull markets and bitcoin’s short squeeze in July.
Additional data provided by Santiment indicates Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has been trending down as the price of BTC consolidates.
In June 2021, this metric saw a 6-month low as the market recovered from bearish price action. As BTC’s price moved further up, the supply followed, but the cryptocurrency managed to score a new all-time high near $70,000.
The chart below could be hinting at a similar trend as supply on exchanges decreases, and the price consolidates.

Source: Santiment via Twitter Tags: bitcoin btc btcusd

Lecturas Relacionadas

Blocked Its Own Treasure, WeChat AI Steps Up

Tencent's stock surged over 10% on June 2nd amid reports that WeChat, with 1.43 billion monthly users, is finalizing tests for a native AI Agent. The reported feature, accessible by swiping right from the main interface, allows users to issue commands in natural language. The AI then decomposes tasks and automatically calls upon relevant Mini Programs within WeChat to complete actions like ordering food, booking tickets, or making payments, creating a closed-loop service execution system. This strategic shift follows the internal conflict and subsequent "blocking" of Tencent's standalone AI app, Yuanbao, by WeChat for violating sharing rules during a 2026 Spring Festival promotion. The incident highlighted a lack of internal consensus and exposed the weakness of competing in the standalone AI assistant arena against rivals like ByteDance's Doubao (345M MAU) and Alibaba's Qianwen. The new WeChat AI Agent aims to leverage WeChat's unique assets—its massive user base, standardized Mini Program APIs, WeChat Pay, and identity system—to move from simple content generation to actual task execution. Analysts note this changes the competitive landscape from model benchmarks to which AI can connect to more real-world services. However, success depends on key variables: the capability of Tencent's underlying Hunyuan model, managing massive inference costs, and redesigning incentives for Mini Program developers whose traffic might be bypassed. The move is seen as an attempt to keep user service intent within WeChat's ecosystem as AI begins to redefine how users access services.

marsbitHace 4 min(s)

Blocked Its Own Treasure, WeChat AI Steps Up

marsbitHace 4 min(s)

ByteDance Adopts Arm CPUs, Jensen Huang: So Sad I Didn't Buy Arm

**Summary:** At Computex 2026, Arm CEO Rene Haas announced that ByteDance and Oracle have adopted Arm's self-designed Arm AGI data center CPU. The company expects significant revenue growth from this product, projecting $20 billion in demand for the 2027/2028 fiscal years. Haas noted that restricting AI-capable CPUs from the US to China is nearly impossible due to their widespread applications. Arm's stock has surged dramatically this year, notably rising 16% after NVIDIA's Arm-based Vera CPU and RTX Spark announcements. A highlight was the informal, humorous on-stage conversation between Haas and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. Huang joked about NVIDIA's failed attempt to acquire Arm and playfully lamented selling his Arm shares. Both executives showed a clear sense of camaraderie and shared regret over the missed merger. Key technical topics were discussed: 1. **AI PC Design:** Huang explained NVIDIA's RTX Spark superchip (with a 20-core Arm CPU) is designed for future AI agents that will autonomously run and use tools on PCs, blending local and cloud processing. 2. **Agent vs. OS:** Huang emphasized the operating system remains crucial, as AI agents rely on its APIs and tools to function. 3. **Growth Constraints:** He identified the shift to "useful AI" that generates profitable tokens as a primary driver for immense, almost limitless, computational demand. Haas outlined Arm's strategy across PC and data centers. For PCs, Arm collaborates with partners like NVIDIA and MediaTek, offering its compute subsystem (CSS) for custom SoCs. In data centers, its Arm AGI CPU (built on TSMC's 3nm process) has gained major partners including OpenAI, Meta, and now ByteDance and Oracle. Arm presented a multi-year roadmap for its in-house CPU line. The article concludes that while GPUs dominated the AI training race, the explosion of AI agents is shifting significant focus to CPUs for inference, state management, and tool orchestration. The industry is trending towards vertical integration, with companies like cloud providers designing chips and chip/IP firms offering full solutions, all competing to deliver more efficient computing per watt.

marsbitHace 25 min(s)

ByteDance Adopts Arm CPUs, Jensen Huang: So Sad I Didn't Buy Arm

marsbitHace 25 min(s)

New Wall Street Play: Yen Shorts Still Adding, But Japan Stocks Don't Rely on Carry Trade Unwinding

On June 3rd, USD/JPY hit 160.44, its highest level since July 2024, while the Nikkei 225 surged past 68,000 points. Contrary to popular narratives of an imminent "carry trade unwind" akin to August 2024, data reveals a more complex picture. Speculative net short positions in yen futures have actually increased, reaching -114,667 contracts by late May, suggesting traders are doubling down rather than retreating. Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Ministry conducted its largest-ever single-round FX intervention (11.73 trillion yen) in April-May but failed to hold the 160 yen line. The Nikkei's rally is not driven by carry trade dynamics. Foreign investors are aggressively buying Japanese stocks, with net purchases in 2026 running nearly 16 times higher than 2025 levels. This inflow is concentrated in AI and semiconductor-related stocks like SoftBank and Socionext, fueled by positive sector outlooks, rather than being a flight from unwinding yen shorts. Furthermore, the Nikkei has continued climbing despite the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate hikes to 0.75%. This disconnect exists because the current equity boom is fueled by AI-driven foreign investment, not reliant on cheap yen funding. However, this relationship remains fragile. Should the BOJ hike rates further (e.g., to 1.0%) while dollar weakness increases carry trade costs, the trajectories of the yen and Japanese stocks could reconverge, potentially triggering volatility.

marsbitHace 29 min(s)

New Wall Street Play: Yen Shorts Still Adding, But Japan Stocks Don't Rely on Carry Trade Unwinding

marsbitHace 29 min(s)

Broadcom's Q3 Guidance Misses Expectations by $12 Billion, After-Hours Trading Plummets Over 13%, AI Narrative "Cooling"?

On June 3, Broadcom released record Q2 FY26 results with revenue of $22.19B, up 48% YoY, and AI chip sales of $10.8B, up 143%. Adjusted EPS of $2.44 beat estimates. However, its Q3 AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $16B, while up over 200% YoY, fell roughly $1.2B (7%) short of analyst consensus expectations of $17.2B. This miss, coupled with slightly weaker-than-expected software revenue, triggered a severe market reaction. CEO Hock Tan maintained the FY26 AI revenue outlook of over $100B but did not raise it, disappointing investors who had priced in more robust growth. The stock plummeted over 13% in after-hours trading, erasing roughly $270B in market cap. The sell-off extended to peers like Marvell. A key concern for markets, particularly for Chinese optical module suppliers, was Tan's comment that the contribution of AI networking (e.g., Ethernet switches, optical interconnect chips) to AI revenue, currently near 40%, is expected to normalize to around 30% over time, signaling a potential peak in growth for that segment. Despite the guidance shortfall, Tan reiterated that AI demand remains "insatiable" and reaffirmed the long-term target of exceeding $100B in AI revenue by FY27. The reaction highlights the heightened sensitivity and premium valuation placed on AI-exposed stocks, where anything less than stellar guidance can prompt significant profit-taking. The broader question is whether this represents a cooling AI narrative or a correction in overstretched valuations.

marsbitHace 29 min(s)

Broadcom's Q3 Guidance Misses Expectations by $12 Billion, After-Hours Trading Plummets Over 13%, AI Narrative "Cooling"?

marsbitHace 29 min(s)

Dogecoin Price Just Entered A Critical Level, But Analyst Says It’s Not Time To Buy

Dogecoin has returned to a major long-term level on its monthly chart, entering what analyst Trader Tardigrade identifies as a critical resistance zone. Historically, this zone within a massive descending broadening channel has seen only two visits in the past decade—in 2017 and 2020—each followed by a strong rejection and deep correction. The coin has already dropped 8% after testing this area. Crucially, the analyst's chart is inverted; the "resistance" line is actually a bullish support line on a normal price chart. Past rejections from this line preceded major rallies. Therefore, the current price action near $0.0937 is viewed as a return to support, with potential for an upward bounce. A move above $0.10 could signal improving sentiment, while a break above $0.25 would confirm a bounce from support. The inverted chart structure even suggests room for significant upside toward double-digit targets.

bitcoinistHace 43 min(s)

Dogecoin Price Just Entered A Critical Level, But Analyst Says It’s Not Time To Buy

bitcoinistHace 43 min(s)

Trading

Spot

Futuros