6.33 mln TRUMP tokens set to unlock: Will this lead to a 12% drop?

ambcryptoPublicado a 2026-02-17Actualizado a 2026-02-17

Resumen

A significant token unlock event for The Official Trump (TRUMP) token is creating bearish pressure, with 6.33 million tokens (worth $21.58 million and representing 2.72% of the circulating supply) set to be released. This often leads to increased selling pressure. TRUMP's price has already declined by 1% to $3.48, and technical analysis suggests it could drop another 12% to around $3.08 if it fails to break above the key resistance level of $3.62. Derivatives data and exchange inflows further support this bearish outlook, showing traders are placing heavier bets on the downside and long-term holders may be offloading tokens. However, a breakout above $3.62 could invalidate this thesis.

The U.S. President Donald Trump-linked crypto project, The Official Trump [TRUMP], is facing fresh bearish pressure as the token is scheduled for a massive unlock event.

Based on the current market sentiment and experts’ opinions, it appears that this token unlock could heavily impact the asset’s price.

Recently, crypto researcher Wu Blockchain shared a post on X, revealing that The Official Trump will unlock a massive 6.33 million TRUMP tokens worth $21.58 million.

The post further disclosed that this unlock represents 2.72% of the total circulating supply.

A token unlock refers to the scheduled release of tokens that were previously locked by a project to control inflation, stabilize the market, and regulate the circulating supply.

However, it often drives selling pressure on the asset’s price.

TRUMP price and rising volume

On the 16th of February, TRUMP has lost 1% of its value and is currently trading at the $3.48 level, while during this period it also recorded an intraday high of $3.57.

This decline in the asset’s price indicates that selling pressure has begun.

Despite the price drop, market participants have shown strong interest in the asset, as reflected in trading volume, which jumped 65% to $155.45 million.

The suggests that traders may be actively engaging with the current trend.

Price action eyes another 12% dip

Looking at the four-hour chart, TRUMP appeared poised for a sharp downside move, as the price was showing signs of reversal from the upper boundary of the channel pattern it has been following since the 15th of February.

Over the past three instances, whenever the asset’s price reached this upper boundary, it experienced a significant decline.

Considering TRUMP’s past performance and the upcoming token unlock, it appears that the asset could repeat its historical move.

If TRUMP fails to break out of the parallel channel pattern or clear the upper boundary near the $3.62 level, it could see a price dip of around 12% and may reach the $3.08 level in the coming days.

The bearish thesis for TRUMP would only be invalidated if the asset’s price breaks out of the channel pattern and closes a four-hour candle above the $3.62 level.

As of now, the Average Directional Index (ADX), an indicator that measures trend strength, stands at 24.17—below the key threshold of 25—indicating weak directional momentum.

Derivative tools strengthen TRUMP’s bearish outlook

In addition to the price action and the token unlock update, data from the derivatives analytics platform Coinglass further reinforces the bearish outlook for TRUMP.

According to CoinGlass, intraday traders are currently following the market trend by placing heavy bets around $3.43 on the downside and $3.64 on the upside.

At these levels, traders have built approximately $1.54 million in long leveraged positions and $3.34 million in short leveraged positions. These positions indicate that sentiment is tilted toward the bearish side.

At the same time, long-term holders appear to be offloading their TRUMP holdings. Based on the spot inflow/outflow metric over the past 24 hours, around $2.42 million worth of TRUMP tokens have moved into exchanges, hinting at a potential sell-off.

When combining the token unlock event, bearish price action, traders’ leveraged bets, and large exchange inflows, all signs currently point to a bearish outlook.

However, this could shift if broader market sentiment improves and TRUMP breaks above its key resistance level at $3.62.

Final Summary

The Official Trump is scheduled for a massive token unlock of 6.33 million TRUMP, worth $21.58 million.
TRUMP appears poised for a 12% price dip, as the token has begun facing resistance at the key $3.62 level—similar to what occurred in the past.

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the total value and percentage of the circulating supply that the upcoming TRUMP token unlock represents?

AThe upcoming token unlock represents 6.33 million TRUMP tokens, worth $21.58 million, which is 2.72% of the total circulating supply.

QAccording to the price action analysis, what is the potential price target for TRUMP if it fails to break above the key resistance level?

AIf TRUMP fails to break out of the channel pattern and clear the upper boundary near the $3.62 level, it could see a price dip of around 12%, potentially reaching the $3.08 level.

QWhat does the Average Directional Index (ADX) value of 24.17 indicate about the current trend strength for TRUMP?

AAn ADX value of 24.17, which is below the key threshold of 25, indicates weak directional momentum for TRUMP.

QHow do the leveraged positions from derivative traders reflect the current market sentiment towards TRUMP?

ADerivative data shows traders have built approximately $1.54 million in long leveraged positions and $3.34 million in short leveraged positions, indicating that sentiment is tilted toward the bearish side.

QWhat metric suggests that long-term holders might be preparing to sell their TRUMP tokens, and what is the value of these movements?

AThe spot inflow/outflow metric over the past 24 hours shows around $2.42 million worth of TRUMP tokens have moved into exchanges, hinting at a potential sell-off by long-term holders.

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