Skybridge Estimates Bitcoin's Fair Market Value at $40K and Ethereum's at $2,800

newsbtcPublicado a 2022-08-05Actualizado a 2022-08-05

Resumen

Skybridge Capital’s founder says bitcoin’s fair market value is about $40,000 based on adoption, wallet size, use cases, and growth of wallets. The asset management firm also estimated ethereum’s fair market value at around $2,800.

Skybridge Estimates Bitcoin's Fair Market Value at $40K and Ethereum's at $2,800

Skybridge Estimates Bitcoin's Fair Market Value at $40K and Ethereum's at $28K

Skybridge Capital’s founder says bitcoin’s fair market value is about $40,000 based on adoption, wallet size, use cases, and growth of wallets. The asset management firm also estimated ethereum’s fair market value at around $2,800.

Skybridge Capital on the Fair Values of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner at global asset management firm Skybridge Capital, shared his firm’s predictions on the fair market values of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) in an interview with Marketwatch, published Tuesday.

He believes that the worst of the crypto bear market has passed and bitcoin has already bottomed. His comments followed bankruptcy filings by a number of crypto firms, including Celsius Network and Voyager Digital.

“We believe that the leverage has been blown out of the system,” Scaramucci said. While recognizing that BTC could still slide, he emphasized: “I don’t think it’s going below the low that was reached for this cycle, which would be at around $17,500.”

The Skybridge Capital founder further shared:

According to our fair market value metrics based on adoption, wallet size, use cases, growth of wallets, we think the fair market value for bitcoin right now is about $40,000.

He added that ether’s fair market value stands at around $2,800.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $23,167.48, up 14% in the past 30 days. Ether is trading at $1,650.88, up 43% in the last 30 days.

Scaramucci does not expect the price of bitcoin to go straight up due to macroeconomic uncertainties. “Again, these are volatile assets. I guess what’s at issue here is people need to take a four to five years view of these assets,” he cautioned.

The executive noted:

We on the margin are net buyers, as incremental cash comes into our funds we’re net buyers of those two assets, because we think that they’re fundamentally undervalued and technically oversold.

Last month, Skybridge Capital suspended redemptions in its Legion Strategies fund after sharp declines in stocks and cryptocurrencies. About 20% of the fund was in private investments and about 18% was in crypto-related investments, including BTC and private investments in digital asset firms such as crypto exchange FTX, he detailed.

Scaramucci confirmed that withdrawals are still halted, adding that the move was necessary to keep the fund’s composition intact after investment bank Morgan Stanley put a sell recommendation on the fund.

“I can’t have the private investments go too high,” the Skybridge founder stressed. “I can’t let everybody out right at this second until I can have appropriate fairness and balance in the fund.” He revealed that the fund is currently selling some of its private investments, noting: “Once we get liquid on those investments, we will then let whoever wants to get out.”

Scaramucci has long been saying that he expects the price of bitcoin to reach $100K this year and $500K long-term. “If you’re willing to zoom out and look at the long-term chart and look at the adoption story, could bitcoin get to half a million dollars a coin? I believe it will,” he said in March. In June, he advised investors to “buy quality and be unlevered, and stay disciplined.” He noted that a lot of coins will get wiped out.

Commenting on the U.S. economy, the Skybridge executive said, “I think the second half of the year is going to surprise people because there’s already a slowdown in consumption.” He opined:

There will likely be a shallow, but not a deep recession because people have a tremendous amount of savings. And there are more jobs available than people looking for them.



Lecturas Relacionadas

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

U.S. Market Trends (June 19): U.S.-Iran Deal Eases Tensions, Chip Stocks Soar, Energy Sector Leads Declines. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as the signing of a temporary U.S.-Iran deal in Geneva de-escalated Middle East tensions, with Saudi oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical relief helped markets recover from recent Fed-driven volatility. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, the Nasdaq gained nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 6% to a historic peak. Chip stocks were the standout performers. Reports of an Apple-Intel design and foundry deal for certain products, alongside mentions of potential Nvidia and SpaceX collaborations with Intel, propelled the sector. Intel surged ~10.5%, while memory chip makers like Micron also saw significant gains, highlighting sustained confidence in long-term AI capital expenditure. In contrast, the energy sector was the day's sole loser, with the S&P 500 energy sub-index declining as WTI crude fell ~2% to around $74.29/barrel. The reopening of key shipping routes erased prior geopolitical risk premiums. SpaceX extended losses for a second day on news of a potential large bond offering. Market volatility (VIX) dropped sharply, indicating a swift reversal of post-Fed jitters. Treasury yields dipped slightly but remained elevated. The focus now shifts to upcoming economic data, including next week's PCE inflation report and Micron's earnings, which will serve as a key test for the AI trade's durability.

marsbitHace 18 min(s)

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

marsbitHace 18 min(s)

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

**Summary:** The discussion centers on recent Bitcoin price declines and the evolving financial strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). The core argument is that the primary pressure is not from one-off Bitcoin sales by MSTR, but from the market's new expectation that MSTR may need to engage in *sustained, small-scale* Bitcoin sales to cover cash flow obligations for its growing portfolio of preferred shares and debt instruments (like STRC). This shift is driven by its stated goal of maintaining "bitcoins per share neutrality." The market is now testing whether it can absorb this potential ongoing selling pressure without entering a severe "death spiral" with Bitcoin's price. A resolution may involve MSTR softening its approach to avoid damaging both its stock and Bitcoin. The conversation then explores the parallel rise of AI-related stocks. The guest posits that AI is fundamentally restructuring labor, with "tokens" (representing access to AI models/compute) becoming a new form of capital and a substitute for human execution. This drives corporate efficiency and profits, benefiting upstream hardware providers (semiconductors, data centers), which explains the sustained rally. This represents the early stages of a "machine economy." Regarding crypto exchanges offering US stock trading, this is seen as a natural evolution. With few crypto-native assets generating lasting value, exchanges are pivoting to distribute valuable real-world assets (RWAs). This doesn't necessarily harm crypto's long-term prospects, as blockchain infrastructure may become crucial for future machine-to-machine economies. The analysis concludes that the era of rampant altcoin speculation is likely over, heavily damaged by the liquidity shock of the "1011" event (likely referring to a major market crash). Meme-driven capital has largely migrated to US equities. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty is rising due to potential large IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the US elections. While short-term market corrections are possible, the long-term trends of AI-driven productivity gains and the maturation of blockchain towards real-world utility and institutional adoption remain intact.

marsbitHace 22 min(s)

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

marsbitHace 22 min(s)

Will MicroStrategy Fall into a Death Spiral? What Will the Macro Trend Be in the Second Half of the Year?

The podcast features investor Didier discussing the recent Bitcoin downturn and the evolving strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). He argues the core pressure is not macro factors or ETF outflows, but the market pricing in an expectation that MSTR will engage in continuous, small-scale Bitcoin sales to fund its increasing preferred stock and debt obligations under its "bitcoin-per-share neutrality" principle. This creates a structural headwind. However, he is cautiously optimistic a "death spiral" is avoidable without new major shocks, as market support is likely to emerge at a certain price point. Didier then posits that the AI-driven bull market in US stocks (semiconductors, data centers) is fundamentally driven by AI agents and tokens becoming the "new labor force," displacing human roles and boosting corporate margins. This shift toward a machine economy is still in its early stages. He comments on crypto exchanges adding US stock trading, viewing it as a natural move toward valuable real-world assets as truly valuable crypto-native assets remain scarce. For crypto-native traders, he suggests existing strategies (e.g., meme-chasing or value investing) can translate to similar assets in US markets. The discussion notes the severe liquidity damage from the "1011 event" (likely referring to a major market crash) has essentially ended the altcoin cycle, with speculative momentum shifting to the more liquid US stock market. Regarding the macroeconomic outlook for H2 2024, Didier expresses increased caution due to potential market pressure from upcoming mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and US midterm election risks. Long-term, he remains bullish on AI's productivity gains and its convergence with blockchain/Web3, which he sees maturing into a more institutional, real-asset-focused phase.

链捕手Hace 24 min(s)

Will MicroStrategy Fall into a Death Spiral? What Will the Macro Trend Be in the Second Half of the Year?

链捕手Hace 24 min(s)

Dylan Patel: Founder of SemiAnalysis, Praised by Jensen Huang, is a 'Beekeeper' and 'Forum Enthusiast'

Dylan Patel, founder of the independent research firm SemiAnalysis, has an unconventional background. A former beekeeper from rural Georgia, he entered the semiconductor world as a self-taught "forum warrior," discussing chip technology anonymously online from a young age. He launched the SemiAnalysis blog in May 2020, which later transitioned to a paid subscription model. The firm has grown from a one-person operation to a global team of around 60, with a dedicated teardown lab. Its detailed, technically-focused analysis on semiconductor supply chains, AI infrastructure, and products has earned significant industry recognition. Notably, NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang has publicly cited their reports. In a landmark case, a critical 2024 report on AMD's MI300X GPU software stack led to a 90-minute call with AMD CEO Lisa Su, who thanked him for the constructive feedback. SemiAnalysis later acknowledged AMD's improvements. The firm's influence on markets was seen when a report on NVIDIA's Rubin memory configuration was partially shared, affecting memory stock prices. Dylan Patel emphasized the importance of context, contrasting the shared excerpt with the report's actual title. SemiAnalysis, now a multi-faceted consultancy with revenue projected to reach $100 million, is known for its deep technical insights that influence major industry players and investment decisions.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Dylan Patel: Founder of SemiAnalysis, Praised by Jensen Huang, is a 'Beekeeper' and 'Forum Enthusiast'

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片