Opsi Bitcoin senilai $23,7 miliar akan segera berakhir – Mengapa trader mengharapkan gejolak

ambcryptoPublicado a 2025-12-25Actualizado a 2025-12-25

Resumen

Kontrak opsi Bitcoin senilai $23,7 miliar akan kedaluwarsa pada 26 Desember, terbesar sepanjang tahun. Analis memperkirakan volatilitas signifikan (5%-7%) akibat likuiditas menipis dan penutupan posisi menjelang liburan. Titik Max Pain berada di $95.000, dengan konsentrasi strike di $100.000 dan $85.000. Para analis sepakat Bitcoin mungkin turun dulu ke $82.000-$84.000 sebelum rally menuju $95.000, dengan $100.000 sebagai target magnetik. Namun, QCP Capital memperingatkan bahwa kenaikan liburan cenderung tidak berkelanjutan dan dapat mean-revert begitu likuiditas kembali di Januari. Volatilitas tambahan juga dipicu oleh tax-loss harvesting sebelum tenggat tahun baru.

Bitcoin telah diperdagangkan dalam kisaran $85k-$92k sepanjang Desember. Ekspirasi opsi pada Jumat, 26 Desember, kemungkinan akan mengacaukan keadaan.

QCP Capital mencatat dalam pembaruan pasar US Colour terbaru mereka bahwa likuiditas menipis saat trader menutup posisi mereka menjelang liburan.

Hal ini menyebabkan penurunan Open Interest untuk Bitcoin dan Ethereum [ETH]. Perubahan harga 5%-7% di akhir tahun diperkirakan terjadi karena ekspirasi opsi menuju akhir tahun.

Ekspirasi rekor pada Jumat diukur sebesar $23,7 miliar, dengan sekitar 300 ribu kontrak opsi BTC dan 446 ribu kontrak opsi IBIT.

Titik Max Pain berada di $95.000, dengan konsentrasi strike yang cukup besar di $100k dan $85k juga. Bagaimana ini akan mempengaruhi aksi harga Bitcoin [BTC]?

Analis sepakat bahwa Bitcoin kemungkinan akan segera memantul

Dalam sebuah postingan di X, Pendiri dan CEO Alphractal Joao Wedson menyoroti titik-titik minat seputar Bitcoin saat ini. Rasio Put/Call hanya 0,38, dan Titik Max Pain menciptakan gravitasi harga jangka pendek yang kuat yang akan menarik harga ke $95k.

Dalam postingan lain, Wedson menggunakan tingkat likuidasi untuk menyoroti ekspektasinya.

Posisi leverage di sekitar $84k dan $95k terlihat jelas pada peta panas dan merupakan target harga jangka pendek. BTC kemungkinan akan turun ke $82k-$84k sebelum rally ke $95k dan mungkin lebih tinggi.

Pengguna lain, David, menyoroti ekspektasi serupa. Analis tersebut mengamati bahwa level $90k adalah plafon palsu, dan level $100k adalah magnet struktural. Yang menarik perhatian khusus adalah level-level yang disebutkan untuk flush awal, di $80k-$82k.

Pergerakan ke $90k akan menjadi pemicu breakout.

QCP Capital mencatat bahwa rally ini mungkin tidak berkelanjutan.

"...pergerakan yang didorong liburan secara historis cenderung mean-revert. Mirip dengan lonjakan likuiditas rendah di akhir pekan yang sering kali ditarik kembali begitu pasar dibuka kembali, aksi harga minggu Natal biasanya memudar ketika likuiditas kembali pada Januari."

Aksi harga liburan mungkin akan sangat volatil karena buku yang tipis menghadapi panen rugi pajak dari investor kripto menjelang batas waktu 31 Desember. Kondisi ini dapat memperkuat volatilitas jangka pendek alih-alih menekannya.

Pemikiran Akhir

Ekspirasi opsi pada Jumat adalah yang terbesar tahun ini (triwulanan + tahunan), setara dengan $23,7 miliar.
Analis menyarankan bahwa penurunan BTC ke $82k-$84k dapat diikuti oleh rally menuju titik max pain di $95k saat ekspirasi opsi.

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Preguntas relacionadas

QApa yang menyebabkan likuiditas menipis di pasar Bitcoin menjelang akhir tahun?

ALikuiditas menipis karena para trader menutup posisi mereka sebelum liburan, seperti yang dicatat oleh QCP Capital dalam pembaruan pasar terbaru mereka.

QBerapa nilai total kedaluwarsa opsi Bitcoin yang akan terjadi pada hari Jumat, 26 Desember?

ANilai total kedaluwarsa opsi Bitcoin pada hari Jumat adalah $23,7 miliar, yang merupakan rekor terbesar tahun ini.

QApa itu 'Max Pain Point' untuk opsi Bitcoin yang akan kedaluwarsa, dan di level harga berapa?

A'Max Pain Point' untuk opsi Bitcoin yang akan kedaluwarsa berada di level $95.000, yang menciptakan gravitasi harga jangka pendek yang kuat.

QMenurut analis, ke level harga berapa Bitcoin diperkirakan akan turun sebelum akhirnya rally?

AAnalis memperkirakan Bitcoin akan turun terlebih dahulu ke level $82.000-$84.000 sebelum rally menuju $95.000 atau bahkan lebih tinggi.

QMengapa pergerakan harga selama liburan mungkin tidak berkelanjutan menurut QCP Capital?

AQCP Capital mencatat bahwa pergerakan harga yang didorong liburan secara historis cenderung mean-revert (kembali ke rata-rata) dan biasanya memudar ketika likuiditas kembali pada bulan Januari.

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