Wintermute Predicts Cleaner Positioning to Lift Crypto in November

TheCryptoTimesPublicado a 2025-10-29Actualizado a 2025-10-29

Crypto markets are regaining strength as cleaner positioning and rising liquidity create a solid base for renewed upside in November, according to Wintermute, a renowned crypto trading and market making firm. 

In its latest article, published on X, the market maker believes that Softer U.S. inflation data and improving U.S.–China relations have reignited risk appetite across global markets. 

Bitcoin reclaims $115K

Bitcoin reclaimed $115,000 after strong ETF inflows and a sharp short squeeze, signaling a clear return of investor confidence. The rebound follows weeks of volatility triggered by global uncertainty and rate concerns. However, easing treasury yields and renewed optimism around the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Seoul have restored a positive market tone. 

Wintermute said Bitcoin’s 5.3% weekly rise came after $160 million in shorts were liquidated, marking one of the most aggressive squeezes this month. Ethereum also climbed toward $4,200, while gold slipped 7% as capital rotated from defensive assets into crypto and equities.

Cross-Asset PerformanceCross-Asset Performance
Cross-asset Performance, Source: Wintermute (X)

Broader rotation across sectors

Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, investors also shifted toward DeFi and AI-related tokens. Wintermute said the move came as these projects showed stronger earnings and more activity on their networks. Utility and infrastructure tokens also drew interest, helped by new Layer-2 launches and restaking projects that pulled in fresh liquidity. 

Funding rates turned positive across major perpetual markets, indicating sidelined capital is returning. Stablecoin supply also began to rise for the first time since September, a clear signal that fresh inflows are building. ETF flows remained steady throughout the week, reinforcing structural demand for Bitcoin and supporting a healthier derivatives market.

Quarterly Relative PerformanceQuarterly Relative Performance
Quarterly Relative Performance, Source: Wintermute (X)

Market confidence rebuilding after October turmoil

Two weeks earlier, Wintermute temporarily halted trading during a flash crash that erased $19 billion from the crypto market. The firm clarified it did so because its internal trading rules were breached amid the chaos. 

Evgeny Gaevoy, the CEO of Wintermute, dismissed rumors that the crash had “collapsed” the company, stating it was “business as usual” and that Wintermute was “perfectly fine.”

As macro headwinds fade, investors appear ready to rotate back into crypto. Factors like cooling inflation, improved diplomacy, and an expected Fed pivot are driving optimism. Hence, Wintermute believes the setup heading into November and Q4 remains constructive, with cleaner leverage and calmer volatility supporting continued risk-on momentum.

Also Read: Australia Expands Oversight to Stablecoins and Wrapped Tokens


Mobile Only ImageMobile Only Image

Lecturas Relacionadas

Why Didn't Oil Prices Stabilize Above $100 as Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Plunged Again?

Despite a significant drop in daily oil tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz in August, Brent crude oil prices have failed to stabilize above $100 per barrel, instead hovering around $90. This contrasts with traditional market logic, where a threat to a chokepoint handling roughly 20 million barrels per day (27% of global seaborne oil) should trigger a sustained supply risk premium. The article explains that the market is pricing in increased transit costs rather than an imminent, complete supply cutoff. Investors currently believe multiple buffers can absorb the shock: strategic and commercial inventories, the potential for coordinated stock releases, available OPEC+ spare capacity, and alternative export routes from the Gulf. Furthermore, workarounds like ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait and route adjustments by buyers and shippers add resilience, though at a higher cost for insurance, financing, and longer voyages. The underlying U.S.-Iran tensions frame this reassessment as a problem of cost allocation across the supply chain. The price action suggests traders are awaiting clearer signals—such as a military escalation, sustained Iranian attacks, or stricter enforcement of secondary sanctions on buyers—before pricing in a worst-case, long-term disruption scenario. In the longer term, the episode is accelerating investments to reduce dependency on the Strait, such as expanded storage and pipeline infrastructure, which will embed higher costs into the energy system. While Brent may remain range-bound for now, the real-time impact of the Hormuz risk is likely appearing first in freight rates, insurance premiums, and regional product spreads like diesel crack margins. The stability of current prices depends on how much longer these existing buffers can effectively absorb the mounting transit costs and logistical friction.

marsbitHace 37 min(s)

Why Didn't Oil Prices Stabilize Above $100 as Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Plunged Again?

marsbitHace 37 min(s)

BONK Crypto Treasury Company Has Only $2.14 Million Cash Left, 70% of Revenue Comes from Founder's Own Platform

BONK Inc. (BNKK), the NASDAQ-listed company associated with the Solana meme coin BONK, reported stark financials for the first half of the year. While revenue skyrocketed 6,218% year-over-year to $5.5 million, the company posted a net loss of $7.88 million and its cash reserves plummeted to just $214,000. Its auditors issued a "going concern" warning, citing cumulative losses of $191.4 million, negative operating cash flow, and critically low liquidity. A critical detail is that $3.92 million, or 71%, of its revenue came from an "affiliate revenue share" with LetsBonk.fun, a meme coin launchpad. This platform is linked to founder Mitchell Rudy, whose entity, Lucky Dog Holdings, beneficially owns approximately 40.2% of common stock and all C Series preferred shares. These preferred shares grant the holder the right to elect half of the company's board. The company's financial structure is further intertwined with Rudy; it sold $50 million worth of stock to his entities, accepting payment in BONK tokens. Fluctuations in the value of these and other held digital assets led to an $8.17 million unrealized loss, the primary driver of the net loss. With operating cash outflows of $4.17 million for the half-year, the remaining cash covers roughly nine days of operations at the current burn rate, highlighting severe financial strain despite top-line growth.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

BONK Crypto Treasury Company Has Only $2.14 Million Cash Left, 70% of Revenue Comes from Founder's Own Platform

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

CryptoQuant Noted a Signal of a Bitcoin Reversal

CryptoQuant has highlighted a potential reversal signal for Bitcoin, suggesting the bearish phase might be nearing its end as on-chain metrics show initial signs of spot demand recovery. Their analysis indicates that the 30-day spot demand metric has recovered from -206,000 BTC in late July to approximately -5,000, close to turning positive for the first time since February 2026. Historically, such a reversal has been followed by a median 60-day price gain of 18.1%, with a win rate of 78% (increasing to 87% when valuations are depressed). However, they caution that this is a favorable sign, not a guarantee. Analysts from Bitfinex Alpha note that two of three conditions for a sustainable Bitcoin recovery are already met: improved Federal Reserve rate expectations and relatively accommodative financial conditions, thanks to easing inflation and reduced odds of a near-term rate hike. The missing third catalyst is a capital rotation from traditional markets (like stocks and AI infrastructure) into cryptocurrencies. If this occurs, Bitcoin could reclaim $70,000. Conversely, continued negative flows might see support tested around $57,000. Current headwinds include significant weekly outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs (roughly $385 million) and reduced stablecoin supply. Wintermute offers a more cautious outlook, pointing to the same large ETF outflows and ongoing miner selling pressure. They note that Bitcoin has failed to rally despite the improved Fed outlook, which is typically bullish for risk assets. As an example, they cite miner Riot Platforms, which sold a substantial portion of its Bitcoin reserves in Q2 as its mining cost (~$91,000 per BTC) remains far above the current market price, forcing sales for liquidity. This combination of ETF outflows and miner selling is suppressing new demand.

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

CryptoQuant Noted a Signal of a Bitcoin Reversal

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Is a Strong Ruble Good? Not for the Budget: Treasury Already Short 1.5 Trillion

The Russian budget has lost about 1.5 trillion rubles in revenue since the start of 2026 due to the ruble being stronger than the government's planned exchange rate. The budget was based on an average annual rate of 92.2 rubles per US dollar, but the actual average for the first seven and a half months was just 76.9 rubles. This discrepancy creates a significant shortfall, as every ruble of appreciation against the dollar reduces annual budget revenues by 140–160 billion rubles. When accounting for oil and gas revenues, the sensitivity is even higher, with potential annual losses reaching up to 2.5 trillion rubles. So far this year, the budget has already missed out on roughly 1.7 trillion rubles. The ruble's exchange rate has shown considerable volatility in 2026, ranging from a low near 71 rubles per dollar in May to over 85 rubles by mid-August. Despite this recent weakening, the year's average remains well below the budget target, creating a structural deficit in oil and gas revenues. Forecasts suggest the final average rate for 2026 will be around 80–82 rubles, which would result in a budget shortfall of about 1.6 trillion rubles. A strong ruble reduces import costs and inflation but also cuts the ruble earnings of exporters and threatens the funding of social obligations. The gap between the planned and actual rate is attributed not only to oil price dynamics but also to the fiscal rule mechanism, which can influence the currency's direction. The Ministry of Finance recently halted foreign currency sales under this rule, removing dollar supply from the market and contributing to pressure on the exchange rate. The budget policy is now forced to adapt to a stronger ruble than originally planned.

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Is a Strong Ruble Good? Not for the Budget: Treasury Already Short 1.5 Trillion

cryptonews.ruHace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot
活动图片