Шатдаун в США затруднил запуск крипто-ETF. Что прогнозируют на Polymarket

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-01-02Actualizado a 2025-10-03

Решение по первому ETF на базе Litecoin было просрочено, что связывают с приостановкой работы федеральных органов. Участники криптовалютных прогнозов поставили на то, что шатдаун может продлиться не одну неделю

Из-за приостановки работы федеральных ведомств в США (шатдауна) откладывается рассмотрение заявок на запуск спотовых биржевых фондов (ETF) на базе альткоинов. Сейчас на рассмотрении Комиссим по ценным бумагам и биржам США (SEC) находится несколько таких заявок для разных монет.

Решение по первому ETF на базе Litecoin должно было быть принято еще 1 октября. По словам аналитика рынка ETF в Bloomberg Джеймса Сейффарта, конкретные сроки уже могут не иметь значения. SEC предложила участникам перейти на новые стандарты оформления заявок, что повлекло новые бюрократические процедуры и сдвинуло график.

Журналистка FOX Business Элеанор Терретт добавила, что в условиях шатдауна SEC работает в усеченном составе: часть сотрудников в отпуске, агентство не отвечает на запросы СМИ и не согласовывает документы. По словам Сейффарта, сейчас «не до конца ясно, что именно происходит», но запуск ETF на базе альткоинов по-прежнему ожидается в обозримом будущем.

rbc.group

Спотовые биржевые фонды на базе биткоина и Ethereum дают инвесторам доступ к криптовалюте в виде обычных биржевых акций. Такие фонды обязаны реально закупать криптовалюту при выпуске новых акций, что обеспечило рынок значительным притоком капитала и стало одним из драйверов роста с 2024 года. В управлении американских ETF находится 6,7% существующих биткоинов и 5,6% предложения Ethereum.

Ставки на шатдаун

Рынок прогнозов Polymarket в криптовалютных ставках на продолжительность шатдауна собрал более $3 млрд. Участники по большей части считают, что приостановка работы правительства США продлится не одну неделю.

Пул «На сколько дней будет приостановлена работа федерального правительства (США) в 2025 году?» привлек уже более $500 млн. Согласно ставкам на этом рынке прогнозов, с вероятностью в 61% шатдаун продлится от 10 до 29 дней, почти 19% — вероятность срока в 30 дней и более.

Пул «На сколько дней будет приостановлена работа федерального правительства (США) в 2025 году?». Источник: Polymarket

В пуле «Когда закончится приостановка работы правительства (США)?», собравшем $2,6 млрд, вероятность того, что шатдаун закончится после 15 октября, составляет 46%. Шансы на более ранние сроки меньше.

Пул «Когда закончится приостановка работы правительства (США)?». Источник: Polymarket

На курсы криптовалют приостановка работы федеральных органов США отрицательно не повлияла. Рынок показывает рост с начала октября. За последние сутки капитализация криптовалют выросла на 1,5%, до $4,14 трлн. Цена биткоина колеблется около $120 тыс., она поднялась до этой отметки впервые за 1,5 месяца.

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