Аналитики выявили условия для роста биткоина до $200 000

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-01-01Actualizado a 2025-10-02

При сохранении текущих темпов роста спроса первая криптовалюта может достичь $160 000-200 000 к концу года, поделились мнением аналитики CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin has crossed $117K, reclaiming the Trader’s Realized Price ($116K).

This shift puts BTC back in the BULL phase of the cycle indicator.

From here, Q4 targets expand toward $160K–$200K. pic.twitter.com/FlYePG6kL9
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 1, 2025

По их данным, с июля спотовые покупки биткоина увеличиваются на 62 000 BTC в месяц. Это сопоставимо с динамикой перед предыдущими ралли в четвертых кварталах 2020, 2021 и 2024 годов.

Эксперты также отметили усиление спроса со стороны китов и биржевых фондов. Крупные держатели наращивают экспозицию темпами 331 000 BTC в год, что существенно превышает показатели аналогичных периодов прошлых лет:

238 000 BTC — в четвертом квартале 2020 года;
197 000 BTC — 2021;
255 000 BTC — 2024.

За аналогичный период предыдущего года американские ETF приобрели 213 000 BTC — на 71% больше, чем кварталом ранее. Текущая ситуация позволяет ожидать повторения той же динамики в ближайшие три месяца.

Ценовой ориентир

По слова аналитиков, биткоин успешно преодолел уровень реализованной цены трейдеров на $116 000 и официально перешел в бычью фазу цикла. После тестирования этой отметки и закрепления в районе $117 300 эксперты обозначили целевой диапазон на квартал в $160 000-200 000.

Оптимистичный сценарий подтверждают технические индикаторы, подчеркнули они. Индекс «бычьей силы» CryptoQuant находился в районе 40-50 в конце третьего квартала. То же самое наблюдалось в прошлом году, когда курс первой криптовалюты вырос с $70 000 до $100 000.

«Данные значения индекса знаменуют переход в бычью фазу рыночного цикла», — пояснили специалисты.

Поддержку оказывают три ключевых фактора: устойчивый рост спроса на биткоин, увеличение ликвидности стейблкоинов и снижение нереализованной прибыли трейдеров. Все это «в совокупности снижает потенциал продаж».

Контрибьютор CryptoQuant под псевдонимом Crypto Dan тоже отметил, что бычья фаза цифрового золота продолжается. По его словам, явных сигналов ее завершения пока не наблюдается.

Он указал на действия долгосрочных держателей биткоина. Когда цикл роста близится к пику, эта группа инвесторов начинает активно продавать актив — особенно монеты, хранившиеся больше года. Сейчас наблюдается иная картина: доля «возрастных» монет уменьшается плавно, что намекает на новый импульс роста.

Источник: CryptoQuant.

Напомним, эксперты выделили несколько ключевых индикаторов, сигнализирующих о потенциальном «крупном движении» биткоина.

Аналитики XWIN Research также объяснили закономерность сезонных ралли в четвертом квартале.

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