Отчет QCP Capital: криптовалюты могут не выиграть от смягчения политики ФРС

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-03-16Actualizado a 2025-09-17

Трейдинговая фирма QCP Capital выпустила новый отчет накануне заседания Федеральной резервной системы США (21:00 МСК), на котором ожидается начало цикла снижения процентных ставок. Аналитики компании подробно разбирают возможные сценарии денежно-кредитной политики ФРС и их влияние на криптовалютные рынки.

ФРС готовится к первому снижению ставки

Рынки полностью заложили в цену снижение базовой ставки ФРС на 25 базисных пунктов, что приведет к диапазону 4,00–4,25%. Такое решение будет означать начало нового цикла смягчения монетарной политики после длительного периода жестких мер по борьбе с инфляцией.

Основное внимание инвесторов сосредоточено на Сводке экономических прогнозов (Summary of Economic Projections, SEP), которая даст понимание темпов и масштабов снижения ставок до 2026 года. В настоящее время рынки закладывают три снижения в 2025 году и еще три — в 2026-м.

Баланс между осторожностью и агрессивностью

QCP Capital отмечает, что рыночные ожидания находятся в «золотой середине» — шесть снижений ставок представляют компромисс между осторожным и агрессивным подходом. Соответствие этой траектории продлит благоприятные условия для рисковых активов в условиях более мягких финансовых условий.

Однако любое отклонение в прогнозах членов комитета ФРС нарушит этот баланс. Инвесторам придется пересматривать свои позиции, учитывая риски более жестких условий или неспособность ФРС эффективно реагировать на замедление экономического роста.

Ключевая роль коммуникации Пауэлла

Пресс-конференция председателя ФРС (21:30 МСК), предоставит дополнительные детали о краткосрочной политике регулятора. Более жесткая позиция по инфляции будет сигнализировать об ограничениях в темпах смягчения, особенно с учетом роста ценовых давлений, неопределенности тарифной политики и нерешенных геополитических рисков.

Рынок труда остается единственной областью устойчивого ослабления за прошедший год, что дает ФРС основания для смягчения политики.

Криптовалюты отстают от акций

В своем анализе QCP Capital подчеркивает, что с августа криптовалютные активы стабильно показывают худшие результаты по сравнению с акциями. Даже если ФРС сможет найти правильный баланс на сегодняшнем заседании, криптовалюты, скорее всего, продолжат отставать от фондовых рынков, несмотря на более мягкие условия ликвидности.

Решение ФРС станет важным тестом для глобальных финансовых рынков. Способность регулятора сбалансировать поддержку экономики с контролем инфляции определит траекторию развития как традиционных, так и цифровых активов в ближайшие месяцы.

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