CryptoQuant Noted a Signal of a Bitcoin Reversal
CryptoQuant has highlighted a potential reversal signal for Bitcoin, suggesting the bearish phase might be nearing its end as on-chain metrics show initial signs of spot demand recovery. Their analysis indicates that the 30-day spot demand metric has recovered from -206,000 BTC in late July to approximately -5,000, close to turning positive for the first time since February 2026. Historically, such a reversal has been followed by a median 60-day price gain of 18.1%, with a win rate of 78% (increasing to 87% when valuations are depressed). However, they caution that this is a favorable sign, not a guarantee.
Analysts from Bitfinex Alpha note that two of three conditions for a sustainable Bitcoin recovery are already met: improved Federal Reserve rate expectations and relatively accommodative financial conditions, thanks to easing inflation and reduced odds of a near-term rate hike. The missing third catalyst is a capital rotation from traditional markets (like stocks and AI infrastructure) into cryptocurrencies. If this occurs, Bitcoin could reclaim $70,000. Conversely, continued negative flows might see support tested around $57,000. Current headwinds include significant weekly outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs (roughly $385 million) and reduced stablecoin supply.
Wintermute offers a more cautious outlook, pointing to the same large ETF outflows and ongoing miner selling pressure. They note that Bitcoin has failed to rally despite the improved Fed outlook, which is typically bullish for risk assets. As an example, they cite miner Riot Platforms, which sold a substantial portion of its Bitcoin reserves in Q2 as its mining cost (~$91,000 per BTC) remains far above the current market price, forcing sales for liquidity. This combination of ETF outflows and miner selling is suppressing new demand.
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