Коррекция биткоина может усилиться перед восстановлением

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-06-02Actualizado a 2025-09-03

Согласно данным аналитической платформы Glassnode, лишь около 9% от общего предложения биткоина в настоящее время находятся в зоне нереализованных убытков, которые не превышают 10%. Это контрастирует с ситуацией на локальном дне текущего цикла в апреле, когда более 25% предложения несли убытки до 23%, а цена BTC корректировалась на 29% от январского пика, опускаясь до $75 000. Для сравнения, в условиях глобальных медвежьих рынков прошлых циклов доля убыточного предложения превышала 50%, а глубина потерь достигала 78%.

Глубина текущей коррекции
С момента достижения исторического максимума на уровне $124 500 14 августа биткоин снизился примерно на 13.4%, достигнув в начале недели отметки $107 500. Хотя в абсолютных значениях коррекция выглядит значительной, в историческом контексте она остается относительно умеренной. В сентябре 2017 года биткоин падал на 36%, а в 2021 году — на 24%, прежде чем восстановиться в четвертом квартале. Ключевое отличие текущей ситуации — беспрецедентное институциональное давление покупателей со стороны ETF-фондов и корпоративных казначейств, которое может смягчить глубину снижения.

Перспективы и ключевые уровни
Предприниматель Тед Поллиос проводит параллели с коррекциями второго квартала 2025 года и третьего квартала 2024 года, когда актив терял до 30% стоимости. Он не исключает testing уровня ниже $100 000, но рассматривает это как часть typical коррекции перед обновлением исторических максимумов.

Соучредитель MN Fund Микаэль ван де Поппе акцентирует внимание на приближающемся заседании ФРС 17 сентября, где вероятность снижения ставок оценивается в 91%. По его мнению, приближение этого события снижает вероятность продолжения нисходящего тренда, особенно в случае преодоления сопротивления в зоне $112 000.

Текущая динамика
В среду утром биткоин демонстрирует восстановление, достигнув уровня $111 500 после внутридневного минимума на отметке $108 500 во вторник. Для продолжения роста необходимо закрепление выше ключевого сопротивления $112 000. В случае неудачи следующей значимой целью поддержки выступает уровень $105 000. Рыночная капитализация BTC за сутки выросла на 1.3%, составив $3.93 трлн.

Таким образом, текущая коррекция остается в рамках исторических норм для бычьих рынков биткоина, а институциональный спрос может стать фактором, ограничивающим дальнейшее снижение. Решающее значение для краткосрочной динамики будут иметь макроэкономические данные и решения центральных банков.

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