Эксперт обнаружил редкий сигнал дна цены биткоина

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-01-01Actualizado a 2025-09-02

Краткосрочные биткоин-инвесторы сформировали редкий сигнал, который в прошлом уже указывал на локальное дно рынка. Об этом сообщил аналитик Vibes Capital Management Фрэнк Феттер.

Officially got the Oversold print on the short-term holder MVRV bollinger bands. Last three instances of this:

1. Yen Carry Unwind — $49k
2. Tariff Tantrum — $74k
3. Today — $108k $BTC pic.twitter.com/AqcYXLwbzw
— Frank (@FrankAFetter) September 1, 2025

Курс покупки принадлежащих краткосрочным холдерам монет сравнялся с текущей рыночной ценой первой криптовалюты. Этот уровень часто выступает поддержкой в коррекциях во время бычьего рынка, но его потеря может привести к длительному снижению.

Индикатор MVRV для упомянутой категории держателей достиг точки безубыточности. Его отклонение от нижней полосы Боллинджера встречается крайне редко. За последний год такое происходило только два раза:

в августе 2024 года на фоне сворачивания кэрри-трейда с японской йеной;
в апреле 2025 года, когда цифровое золото упало ниже $75 000 из-за торговых пошлин США.

В настоящее время на графике BTC/USD формируется бычья дивергенция на четырехчасовом индикаторе RSI. По словам Феттера, это свидетельствует о готовящемся развороте тренда.

«Хрупкий» рынок

2 сентября цена биткоина ненадолго восстановилась к $110 000 после падения до $107 000 в конце августа. Однако аналитики Glassnode зафиксировали снижение интереса инвесторов. По их словам, структура рынка остается неустойчивой.

На прошлой неделе спрос на спотовом рынке цифрового золота был слабым. Объем торгов упал на 9% — с $8,5 млрд до $7,7 млрд. Эксперты подчеркнули, что инвесторы и трейдеры теряют уверенность в восстановлении биткоина.

Источник: Glassnode.

Индикатор CVD немного вырос, означая снижение продаж. Тем не менее «спотовые метрики свидетельствуют о хрупком спросе», добавили в Glassnode.

Ситуация на фьючерсном рынке также указывает на осторожность игроков. Открытый интерес сократился с $45,8 млрд до $45 млрд, а объем финансирования упал с $3,8 млрд до $2,8 млрд.

Источник: Glassnode.

За какими уровнями следить?

Ключевым сопротивлением стала отметка $110 500 — верхняя граница нисходящего канала. Закрытие дня выше может открыть путь к зоне ликвидности в $110 000-117 000.

Ближайшими уровнями поддержки эксперты назвали $108 000 и $107 300.

Основатель MN Capital Михаэль ван де Поппе считает, что для обновления исторического максимума биткоину необходимо закрепиться выше $112 000. В противном случае криптовалюту ждет откат к $103 000.

The area remains the same for $BTC.

If we can clearly break $112K, we'll be onto a new ATH.

Otherwise, I'd be looking at $103Kish for a great opportunity.

Interestingly enough, Gold is yet to make a new ATH.

When Bitcoin? pic.twitter.com/JDruy5ba8O
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 2, 2025

Карта ликвидности показывает значительные скопления ордеров на покупку в диапазоне $105 500-107 000 и на продажу — в зоне $110 000-111 000. Аналитик AlphaBTC предположил, что рынок «охотится за деньгами» и сначала может испытать область с шортами, прежде чем вернуться к проверке минимумов.

📈 #Bitcoin liquidity hunt 🎯

Looks like they are coming for that big cluster of shorts 110K-111k, then likely back to run the Monday low and the longs from the weekend.#Crypto #BTC pic.twitter.com/crRwauoOyq
— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) September 2, 2025

Напомним, в начале сентября CEO Bitcoin Magazine обвинил двух китов в «торможении» биткоина.

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