开源镰刀 29 - ICO后一个月回看Pump与Bonk，为什么会这样？

marsbitPublicado a 2025-08-16Actualizado a 2025-08-17

开源镰刀 29 - ICO后一个月回看Pump与Bonk，为什么会这样？

一个月前，Pump ICO，全网都在FUD，只有我看多（原帖）。结果评论区都在骂我“广告狗”、“收钱”

如今Pump市占回到80%，Bonk跌到3%，被Bags超过，争论已无意义

我们跳出立场，从结果来回看我当时的一些观点，可能对未来的项目方和P小将仍然有意义👇

*注: 以下讨论的对象都是Pump和Bonk台子本身，而不是台子发的币，请勿争论

Bonk

“大众传媒说”：比起Pump，Bonk像传统电台

我赞同 @ed_x0101 和 @Michael_Liu93 所说，meme资金无忠诚度。但这恰恰解释了为什么Bonk没赢

8090年代生人的应该还记得智能手机前的中国媒体: 中央台 - 省台 - 地方电视台，晚上7点准时所有台放新闻联播

流量集中在官方关键人物，只有二圣点过头的才能起飞，让Tom和蚌壳盖承担了过重的背书责任。

一边又需要喊单来招揽Dev，一边又怕跟一姐遇到"BNBCARD"一样被利用。结果就是坐庄成本高，新庄不来。作为一个互助盘，却做不上去流转率，只能天天喊那几个，最后价格一崩，全体套牢

”给流量“和”喊单边际效应“两件事本身就是矛盾的：喊崩一个完蛋，不喊也完蛋

我为什么说Pump是大众传媒？

我这个说法被一堆人嘲讽过，但是请先看完:

大众传媒，或者说自媒体，允许更多流量玩家变现，不需要任何人背书

Pump做的事，是让自己变成真正意义上的流量门户

你去看一下他们的官推，就好像Facebook的9GAG，他的工作是创造/精选全网meme，在评论区创造一个互动场。从9GAG评论区长出来的是初代流量矩阵号，从Pump评论区长出来的是角度和CA，比如 $tokabu

每条推随便就2-3十万阅读，是Letsbonk的几十倍。巅峰期 @theunipcs 也有几条达到这个数，但靠的是明确给社区鸡血

Bonk

Bonk在做市值，Pump在培养Dev和KOL集团

Pump和Alon不需要背书，因为Threadguy、Gainzy、Rasmr、Yenni、Scooter这类流量玩家人随便涉及一些drama，都会被当成角度

他们可以是人渣，你可以不信任他们，只要Pump作为一个meme门户本身的流量在、这些流量玩家还在、矛盾点在、评论区活性在就行 —— Pump的流量成本，是被证实显著低于Bonk的

传播和背书完全是两回事，传播需要的只是注意力，而不是公信力

如同这个时代已经很少有人想去电视台当主持人一样，中心化广播电视体系必定会被去中心化的大众传媒替代

旁氏有用，“社区”无用

Bonk是“成也社区，败也社区”的典型

机制和Pump几乎一样，但产品完成度远不如，所以只能靠三个卖点：回购销毁、质押 $SOL、获得Solana“官方支持”。

本质是试图通过这些形式营造出“社区优先”的形象，用来博得Solana忠实社区的钱，并讲出一个Bonk飞轮的DeFi逻辑：

$Bonk 上涨 → Bonk平台回购销毁 → 再推高 $Bonk

为什么结果是失败的？

第一，Bonk搞盘却不懂盘

Memecoin本质是互助盘，也是Sol的拆分盘。每个 meme都在帮 Sol 化解泡沫

然而Bonk错把它当成了 $Bonk 的拆分盘。实际上，回购销毁本质是分红的变体，母币价格上涨，只会出现更多的泡沫。Bonk巅峰不过2M总盈利就算全回购也不可能托住一个20亿的盘子，这个飞轮不成立

Bonk

原本台子作为互助盘，只需要不断想办法拉出小金狗，就能保持活性。结果被Bonk "社区优先“绑上了大卡车搞成有沉没成本的分红盘。一个大跌破位，直接双杀崩盘

第二，Bonk自己被“社区”洗脑了

Bonkguy言必称社区，但我觉得他并不懂“社区”对项目方是什么

我说“社区”无用，是指“公域上捧你，但实际上是对手盘“的人无用

Meme 和分红盘本来就是零和场景，零和场景里你讲“PVE”讲“社区”，这不是自欺欺人嘛？这里“社区”本就100%是对手盘

最谜的操作是去鼓励中文CTO，如果说想办法建设到上交易所，去割交易所的外部流动性，算是PVE。那么明知Sol meme不太可能上所，让没做市能力又是全球最“螃蟹心态”的国人CTO，是纯把人往火上架了。

Bonk

Bonk势能的崩坏，和那几个中文CTO的drama有直接的关系

残酷的事实是：绝大多数项目的“社区”都没有意义。如果Dev真信“社区”“长期贡献者”，掉入“分红”“回购”这种冠冕堂皇的“代币用途”陷阱，只会让自己流血越快，后面被骂的越狠

真正的社区是利益方向一致的人：赌厅老板、赌徒、掮客、承兑商。他们不是来抱团，是来赚钱的。你要做的不是让他们感动，而是让他们持续有钱赚，不变成你的对手盘

坚信Pump不会空投

对Pump有用的只有三种人：

- 坚持下注的长期P小将- 亲自喊单的流量玩家

- 持续发盘的大小Dev

这些人利益方向一致，才有补贴的必要:

- 给净亏损的P小将根据亏损和历史产生的手续费发空投，补贴降低杀率，让他们玩下去

- 给流量玩家做喊单激励，对应给叠码仔发码粮

- 做cabal市值基金，时不时买入二段点火，形成竞争对手无法匹敌的低发盘成本（做市成本、传播成本）

Bonk

所以即使Pump发过推，我也认为他们不会也不该发那种“阳光普照”“奖励长期用户“空投，甚至不该做100%回购。任何可预测的回购本身对二级市场都不会产生方向性意义，顶多是上涨区间“找理由”

这个钱，完全可以以其他方式来用

对P小将和项目方的启示

对项目方：

1. 台子的命门是综合发射成本。已经上桌的玩家，都能拿得出做零星金狗的资源，但是护城河在于如何做好基于Web2注意力的流量分发。这就是为什么今天的Pump，越来越像MCN

2. SOL的链上叙事已经穷尽: Sol的台子战争到今天，其实已经摧毁了所有的链上发行叙事：AI、ICM...只要是链上基于bonding curve和AMM公平发射的，玩家已经感觉不到任何的区别。Bonk已经是资源咖的天花板

3. 如果你还在SOL做台子，那么建议你直接放弃。这是当前全网最贵的赛道，没有之一。一般人你活不下去的

4. 如果你做的产品是一个交易产品，为了你的流水躺赚着想，不要搞阳光普照空投的预期

对P小将:

1. 有平台自己去背书“龙一”“龙二”概念的台子必死

2.但是如果这个台子想在Sol做，就必须拉出一个5-10M以上市值、客观上的“龙一”，只是在Bonk/Launchcoin都失败后，这些龙一的天花板会越来越低。不要恋战

3. 牢记“没有PVE，只有PVP”。Meme是无法做空的50倍杠杆合约。可以做超短线的钻石手，但一定要设止损，绝不能再下跌扩大后恋战

4. 不要搞CTO, 不要搞CTO，不要搞CTO。不要被台子当枪使

5. P小将是食物链的末端，一定要想办法当KOL，一定要上桌

Bonk

最后

希望大家不要只在本文里看到“踩一捧一”

Bonk没有成功挑战Pump，不是他们水平、资源不行。他们做的很棒，但他们定位为Sol的launchpad，面对Pump，在当下市场中，超水平发挥也只能做到这样

Pump和Bonk在Sol的竞争是非对称的，好比顶尖T72坦克手在乌克兰战场遇到无人机。Bonk对比起这个行业99%的项目，他们并不“失败”对我们来说，更重要的是理解为什么，以便自己对号入座，以便未来更好的知难而退、及时止损、毫米级复刻

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