美联储分歧之大,历史罕见

深潮Publicado a 2025-06-24Actualizado a 2025-06-24

德银表示,6 月点阵图反映出美联储官员的分歧程度创下十年新高,因为他们在如何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之间存在根本性分歧。

撰文:李笑寅,华尔街见闻

美联储内部分歧达十年之最,降息前景几何?

美联储最新发布的经济预测概要(SEP)显示,2025 年降息预期中值达到两次,但官员们的预测范围从不降息到降息 75 个基点不等,凸显了政策制定者之间的显著分歧。

更为关键的是,沃勒和鲍曼两位美联储理事率先「倒戈」,公开表示不排除 7 月降息的可能性,这进一步加剧了市场对政策转向的猜测。

据追风交易台消息,德意志银行首席美国经济学家 Matthew Luzzet 及其团队在最新发布的研报中表示,6 月 SEP 报告反映的官员分歧程度创下十年新高,这是因为官员们在如何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之间存在根本性分歧。

报告同时补充表示,尽管当前分歧显著,但美联储官员对 2025 年利率路径的不确定性并非史无前例,甚至低于去年同期的水平。预计随着经济数据逐步明朗,官员们的观点可能逐步收敛,但短期内分歧仍将持续。

美联储内部出现历史性分歧,但利率不确定性实际下降

通过对美联储 6 月 SEP 报告的深度分析,德银认为,美联储当前面临的主要问题不是「历史性不确定性」,而是「历史性分裂」。

根据德银的研究,6 月点阵图显示美联储官员对 2025 年联邦基金利率的预测呈现出高度的两极化分布,最常见预测与次常见预测之间的差距达到 50 个基点,为过去十年最高水平。

报告进一步指出,若按官员数量加权计算,这种双峰分布接近历史纪录,表明美联储内部已分裂为两大阵营。

报告称,这种分歧程度预示未来数月委员会内部可能出现更多争论甚至异议。

尽管当前分歧显著,但报告显示,美联储官员对 2025 年利率路径的不确定性并非史无前例。

以点阵图的最大值与最小值之差衡量,6 月 SEP 的分散程度与过去十年许多年中期的预测相当,甚至低于 2023 年 6 月的水平。

在通胀预测方面,尽管官员们对核心 PCE 通胀的分歧达到过去十年最高的 1 个百分点,但这并未转化为对联邦基金利率预期的历史性分歧。这部分得益于官员们对失业率前景的看法相对一致,分歧仅为 0.3 个百分点。

对经济前景和通胀风险

美联储内部的分歧源于对经济基本面的不同解读。

报告指出,尽管通胀不确定性较高,但官员对失业率前景的共识较高,这可能抑制了利率预测的进一步分散。

然而,6 月点阵图对政策路径的双峰分布表明,官员们在如何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之间存在根本性分歧。沃勒和鲍曼两位理事对 7 月降息的开放态度进一步凸显了这种分歧,可能反映出部分官员对当前经济放缓风险的担忧,而另一部分官员则更关注通胀的持续性。

展望未来,美联储内部的分歧是否会演变为实际的政策异议仍不明朗。报告预计,随着经济数据逐步明朗,官员们的观点可能逐步收敛,但短期内分歧仍将持续。

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