中东战火灼烧通胀前景，美联储降息梦遇阻

比推Publicado a 2025-06-15Actualizado a 2025-06-15

作者：妮可·古德金德(Nicole Goodkind)；编译：Barrons巴伦

原标题：伊以战争加剧通胀风险美联储密切关注局势

中东局势的升级正推动油市和通胀预期上升，这让美联储在实现物价稳定和充分就业这两大目标之间的平衡变得更加棘手，尤其是在官员们为下周的会议做准备之际。

关税的不确定性已经让美联储决策者在利率决策上采取观望态度，如今油市的波动很可能让他们变得更加谨慎。

在以色列对伊朗的核设施和军事目标发动军事行动后，原油价格飙升，伊朗随即发起无人机和导弹反击，引发了更多冲突的担忧。油价在消息传出后最初上涨了逾13%，尽管随后有所回落，但分析人士认为油价在一段时间内仍可能维持高位。

“地缘政治不确定性的上升，意味着能源市场必须为潜在的供应中断计入更高的风险溢价，”荷兰国际集团（ING）的分析师在周五的一份报告中写道。他们警告称，如果霍尔木兹海峡(全球近三分之一石油贸易的咽喉要道)的航运受到干扰，布伦特原油价格可能会飙升至每桶120美元。目前，布伦特原油价格略低于每桶75美元。

即使在较为温和的情形下，能源价格的上涨也可能导致通胀率在更长时间内维持高位，并迫使美联储继续维持较高的利率水平。ING分析师写道“油价的飙升有可能打破当前有关美国通胀的叙事——尽管美国加征关税，通胀表现一直比预期温和”。他们表示，尽管目前商品价格的通胀相对平稳，“但我们预计整个夏季，月度通胀数据会出现更大幅度的上涨。”

这些担忧已经在市场的波动中有所体现。“如果这种情况很快得不到缓解，肯定会对通胀数据造成一定影响，”Navellier & Associates创始人路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)周五写道。他表示，国债市场“似乎更多地在对通胀威胁作出反应，而不是对第三次世界大战的可能性。”

周五，2年期和10年期美国国债收益率双双上升。

能源成本的飙升有可能让投资者和公众对短期通胀的预期上升，形成一种可能自我强化的动态，这可能迫使美联储采取行动。

RSM首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯(Joe Brusuelas)在一份报告中写道：“利率前景的主要风险在于通胀预期失去锚定。如果消费者将短期通胀预期推高，那么美联储几乎可以肯定会将降息的想法推迟到最早12月，甚至延后到明年。”

美联储官员预计将在整个夏季维持利率不变。最新的地缘政治动态可能会进一步巩固这一观点。不过，布鲁苏埃拉斯警告称，“关税和由石油引发的价格冲击”相结合，可能会促使政策发生转变，使美联储进一步推迟降息，甚至加息。

目前，美联储似乎更倾向于按兵不动、观望形势。布鲁苏埃拉斯表示,“鉴于新关税和能源价格上涨，美联储应当在当前波动性过去之前，暂时观望，不宜采取任何行动”。

根据CME FedWatch工具，目前市场预计到2025年底将有两次降息，总计降幅为0.5个百分点。

美联储下一次会议将在6月17日至18日举行，市场普遍预计这是连续第四次维持利率不变。

原文链接:https://www.jinse.cn/blockchain/3715684.html

说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议

以色列伊朗美联储通胀

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